Mariners in control of own playoff destiny

This story was excerpted from Daniel Kramer’s Mariners Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

ARLINGTON -- Postseason’s greetings to all.

No, MLB’s championship tournament commences on Oct. 3, but for a Mariners team on the outside looking in among the six-team American League field -- by virtue of a tiebreaker, to boot -- their playoffs (unofficially) begin this weekend in Arlington.

Seattle’s much-anticipated, well-chronicled 10-game slate to finish the regular season is here, and it’s shaping up to be as exciting as advertised.

“It definitely starts a little earlier for us,” Julio Rodríguez told reporters, including MLB.com’s Sonja Chen, after Seattle’s sweep in Oakland this week. “It's fun. We get to play more [important] games."

How are they handling the stakes, especially given that one outstanding week-plus could catapult the Mariners to their first division crown since 2001, and a sour stretch could spoil their season altogether?

"I feel like everybody's ready to get to the field, honestly, like everybody's excited,” Rodríguez said. “Everybody's ready to compete, and at the end of the day, we're going to lay everything down on the line over there."

The Mariners enter this weekend with an identical record (84-68) as Texas for the third and final AL Wild Card spot, with the Rangers holding the tiebreaker via their 5-1 record between these teams to this point. The Mariners would need to go 6-1 against Texas, including next weekend’s four-gamer in Seattle, to reclaim the tiebreaker. They’ve already clinched the tiebreaker over Houston, with an 8-2 edge and three games to play.

The last time the Mariners were in Arlington, in early June, they were swept and outscored, 30-9, and even with the season still young, their division title hopes looked bleak. It was maybe their least competitive series all season.

But much has changed since. The Mariners’ tumble continued into late June before the club turned things around in July. Since then, they have MLB’s third-best record (46-26) behind only the playoff-bound Orioles and Dodgers.

“It's fun. It's what you play all year for,” manager Scott Servais said. “Our year, the way it started out, was a little bumpy. We righted the ship, got some things going, and now we're in a situation where we get to play the teams that we're competing against in the standings and get to do that over a 10-day period. It should be super exciting.”

Both of these teams are in a far different place than when they last met, which should add even more intrigue to this series.

Texas has been battered by injuries -- five of its six All-Stars have been on the IL in the second half -- and some brutal bullpen breakdowns, having blown 14 of 23 save opportunities since August. The Rangers had at least a share of first place for 128 of their season’s first 129 games but now are in just as vulnerable a position to miss the playoffs altogether.

SEA@TEX, probable pitchers
Friday: Bryce Miller vs. Dane Dunning
Saturday: Logan Gilbert vs. Jordan Montgomery
Sunday: Bryan Woo vs. Nathan Eovaldi

Even with the workloads of their rookies, the Mariners interestingly will remain on turn for their rotation after their final off-day on Thursday, though that decision has just as much to do with how they slot out for next weekend when these teams meet in Seattle. With their season potentially on the line, the Mariners will roll out Gilbert, Woo, Luis Castillo and George Kirby, in order, for the four-gamer at T-Mobile Park to finish the regular season.

In between, Seattle will slot Castillo, Kirby and Miller for the pivotal three-gamer against the Astros. That series is just as vital given that Houston benefits greatly from the remaining schedule -- because in a scenario where the Mariners and Rangers go 4-3 or 3-4 against each other, the Astros would double-dip their half-game lead on first place.

Toronto is also a half-game ahead of the Mariners and Rangers, holding the second AL Wild Card spot. The Blue Jays play six games against the Rays and three against the Yankees to finish the year, not by any means an easy stretch, especially given that they’re 17-26 against the AL East this year.

With Tampa Bay and Baltimore already in, and Minnesota holding an 8 1/2-game edge in the AL Central, one of these four teams -- the Mariners, Astros, Rangers or Blue Jays -- is going to miss the postseason.

“Everyone's got the same goal; we all want to win a World Series,” Kirby said. “We’re just going to go out there, keep grinding and take these last [10] games, whatever it is, and really attack it. Then, hopefully, we're in a good spot when the season ends. We're just really excited.”