How Mariners are following championship blueprint

This story was excerpted from Daniel Kramer's Mariners Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

SEATTLE -- The narrative of the Mariners’ offseason has taken a turn to the point where the club’s inaction at the top of the free-agent market is more under the microscope than its trades for two position players who are coming off a better season than their incumbents.

So, what gives?

It starts with spending -- but from the surrounding environment. The Mariners’ need for a middle infielder, since filled via a trade for Milwaukee second baseman Kolten Wong, made it seem like they should be as in on the loaded shortstop class as any club. But after the final prices on Dansby Swanson ($177 million), Xander Bogaerts ($280 million), Trea Turner ($300 million) and Carlos Correa ($315 million, pending finalization of the deal), it’s clear why Seattle never pursued them.

Bogaerts, Correa and Turner netted deals through their age-41 seasons, which, even if they age well, will conclude well past their prime. MLB had only three players older than 40 at the start of last season: Rich Hill, Nelson Cruz and Albert Pujols, who just retired. Some suggest that’s the cost of doing business to win a World Series, banking on huge performances early in a contract and eating all that money at the back end. But how legitimate is that argument?

The past three champions -- the Astros, Braves and Dodgers -- are all big-market teams, but they operate with a similar philosophy to Seattle’s.

“We're built on draft and develop and trade,” Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto said. “And you've heard me say this for years: We use free agency in a way to augment our roster now, not a way to build it, and I think that’s just the way championship teams are typically built.”

Per Cot's Baseball Contracts, Houston, Atlanta and L.A. rank ahead of Seattle in projected 2023 payroll. Yet among those teams, only Mookie Betts ($365 million), Austin Riley ($212 million) and Julio Rodríguez ($210 million, perhaps more with the unique structure) are signed for more than $200 million. Each of those deals came via an extension, not free agency, though Betts signed just after a blockbuster trade with Boston, where he was the AL MVP in 2018.

The Dodgers’ richest free-agent contract on their active roster is Freddie Freeman ($162 million), and after that, Trevor Bauer ($102 million). The Astros' richest such contract is $58.5 million to José Abreu, and the Braves' is $65 million to Marcell Ozuna. The Mariners' is $115 million to Robbie Ray.

“Finding shorter fits to add to [your] group that allow your young players to continue to grow and get opportunities and not tie yourself off on the back end,” Dipoto explained of the club’s free-agent thinking. “Our general feeling is you have to be the right player and it has to be the right fit, and obviously we've not found that.”

The past three champs are also considered the industry’s best at player development. They identify, draft, cultivate, extend and -- in the Astros’ cases of Correa, Justin Verlander, George Springer and Gerrit Cole, and the Braves’ with Freeman -- they even let their best players walk in free agency if the price is too high. The Mariners have already hit big with homegrown talent in Rodríguez, Cal Raleigh, Logan Gilbert and George Kirby, even if their farm system has taken a hit with their graduations to the Majors.

“We're about as balanced as any team that I think we've ever had, and we have young prime or in their prime players at every position on the field,” Dipoto said.

As for where that leaves the Mariners this offseason, consider that this market has been rich to the point of unprecedented, with $1.072 billion committed to the four shortstops alone. Certainly, the acquiring teams are better than they were in October. But that doesn’t necessarily guarantee a trophy come next fall.

“It surprises me for the 21st consecutive year,” Dipoto said of the frenzy of spending. “That’s part of the wonder of this time of year, why people are excited, why there are so many social media hits or so many people locked in on MLB Network -- because it’s exciting.”

There’s understandable trepidation from a fan base that just went through a 21-year playoff drought and has experienced postseason baseball just five times in its 46-year history. On paper, it looks like a challenge to catch Houston in the AL West. And while the biggest free agents are off the board, the offseason isn’t over yet and this front office has made its savviest moves via trades. Perhaps it has another up its sleeve.