Predicting the Mariners' Opening Day lineup

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PEORIA, Ariz. -- The Mariners have yet to roll a full "A" lineup in Cactus League play, but manager Scott Servais has steered towards that direction in recent games and likely will soon, with Opening Day just two weeks away.

With Seattle mostly having an idea of what its 26-man roster will look like come the March 28 opener vs. the Red Sox, aside from a few vacant bullpen spots in light of injuries to Matt Brash and Gregory Santos, it seems like an appropriate time to glance at what the retooled batting order(s) might look like.

Servais deployed 90 lineups last season, which was actually the second-fewest in MLB, yet for a matchup- and analytically-driven team, that diversity will certainly continue in 2024.

Here’s a look at what the most regular starting nine could be during the early leg of the year:

Lineup vs. RHP

1. J.P. Crawford, SS
2. Julio Rodríguez, CF
3. Jorge Polanco, 2B
4. Mitch Garver, DH
5. Cal Raleigh, C
6. Mitch Haniger, RF
7. Dominic Canzone or Luke Raley, LF
8. Ty France, 1B
9. Josh Rojas, 3B

Crawford is coming off a career year, and really thrived after transitioning full-time to the leadoff spot in early May, where Rodríguez was up to that point. Rodríguez settled full-time into the two-hole a few weeks later for the rest of the year. As for Polanco, the Mariners explicitly acquired him to be a middle-of-the-order force, and most of his career plate appearances have been in the No. 2 and 3 spots.

At cleanup, the Mariners received a .699 OPS from that spot last year, tied for fifth-worst in MLB, which they believe will improve greatly via the addition of Garver, who has a career .825 OPS, with an .870 OPS last season with Texas. Garver’s advanced approach and ability to make adjustments mid-at-bat -- with examples such as Wednesday, when he ripped a first-pitch curveball from Dodgers righty Yoshinobu Yamamoto for a two-run double -- make him an ideal cleanup man. Switch-hitting Raleigh does his most damage from the left side, which is why Servais will want him higher against righties.

It’s the lower half of the order that could see a significant leap from 2023. Haniger and France, who’ve hit near the top for most of their careers, won’t be leaned on as key run producers like before. Yet, if Haniger stays healthy, he can regularly homer, and if France’s swing adjustments pay off, his upside would be returning to an on-base machine. And at the bottom, Rojas settled in nicely as a bridge to leadoff after coming over at the Trade Deadline from Arizona.

Under these constraints, any combination of Raley or Canzone, Dylan Moore, Luis Urías and Seby Zavala would be available off the bench.

This is obviously a tentative projection, but it plays a consistent right-left presence between each spot in the order.

Lineup vs. LHP

1. J.P. Crawford, SS
2. Julio Rodríguez, CF
3. Jorge Polanco, 2B
4. Mitch Garver, DH
5. Mitch Haniger, RF
6. Cal Raleigh, C
7. Ty France, 1B
8. Dominic Canzone or Luke Raley, LF
9. Luis Urías, 3B

It’s hard to envision the top two changing at all, unless Crawford or Rodríguez get hurt. Polanco’s switch-hit tool will allow him to remain up top, too, with a career .729 OPS from the right side. It’s possible to see Garver drop or move up based on matchups, but he’s still expected to be regularly deployed in the heart of the order, and Haniger has crushed lefties his entire career, making him a candidate to be in a run-producing spot under those constructions.

With the Mariners committed to a more traditional split at catcher between Raleigh and Zavala than when Tom Murphy was here, Raleigh will be more regularly used against lefties, and improving from the right side has been a pointed area of focus for him this spring.

How Servais looks utilizes left field -- with Canzone and Raley each being lefty hitters -- will be worth following. Canzone has been among the best performers this spring, while Raley is still looking to find his footing, now 1-for-23 in Cactus play. The Rays almost exclusively sat Raley against lefties last season, with nearly 90% of his plate appearances coming against righties.

And though Servais has said third base “is not a straight platoon,” Urías should see more action against lefties than Rojas. It’s also against lefties where Moore could see his most action in whatever utility role the Mariners use him in, which figures to be more centered on infield -- same for Haggerty if he breaks camp.