Prep arm 'really in play' for Mariners in 2024 Draft

This story was excerpted from Daniel Kramer’s Mariners Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

SEATTLE -- The Mariners have played both the safe and aggressive routes when approaching the MLB Draft under their current front office. But the one avenue that they’ve yet to take with their top pick since president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto took over after the 2015 season could be on the table with their No. 15 overall selection this Sunday.

A high school pitcher.

“It's actually really in play for us,” Mariners director of amateur scouting Scott Hunter said, “because we have to consider every demographic in the Draft. We don't want to make poor decisions, but we also want to make sure we're giving our ourselves the best chance to make a good decision. Sometimes, the high school pitcher could be that guy.”

Seattle hasn’t selected a prep arm that high since taking Taijuan Walker in the supplemental first round at No. 43 overall in 2010, well before Dipoto took over and Hunter joined him shortly after the following September.

The Mariners' success with college pitchers has been well-chronicled -- it comprises four-fifths of their current rotation when considering Logan Gilbert (first round, 2018), George Kirby (first round, 2019), Bryce Miller (fourth round, 2021) and Bryan Woo (sixth round, 2021). And that’s not counting Emerson Hancock (first round, 2020), who’s been the de-facto No. 6 and gone back and forth between Triple-A Tacoma.

Seattle pivoted from that strategy the past three years when taking high school bats, beginning with Harry Ford (No. 2 prospect) in 2021 and Cole Young (No. 1 prospect) in ‘22. Then, the club really swung for the fences in ‘23 on three high schoolers that had huge upside within the top 30 overall picks, which the Mariners used to select infielder and No. 3 prospect Colt Emerson (No. 22 overall), outfielder and No. 6 prospect Jonny Farmelo (No. 29) and outfielder and No. 7 prospect Tai Peete (No. 30).

In doing so, Seattle allocated most of its bonus pool to those three players, then had to be more selective with under-slot signees after.

“Every Draft has its own personality,” Hunter said. “And last year, it was so heavy with high school, upside position players that, within a year you had three picks, it was the right thing to do. And I think in any year -- Jerry has really preached over the years and I've learned -- is that you've got to take what the Draft gives you.

“It's never about what you're taking. It's about what you're walking by. And in this year's Draft, I mean, if the right high school player falls to us, I think we would do it again.”

Part of the Mariners’ calculus ties into this year’s class not being as strong as recent years. Hunter said that the club has an idea of what most of the teams with the top 10 picks will do, which could also help them make a clearer decision.

“After that, we're pretty much saying that it's dealer's choice for what organizations are going to do,” Hunter said.

The Mariners haven’t shied from high school arms in recent years, just not with their higher picks, as they can be more unpredictable. Hunter recognized No. 11 prospect Michael Morales (third round, 2021) and No. 29 prospect Tyler Gough (ninth round, 2022) as two recent examples.

“It’s an interesting thing because now you are starting to see some high school arms do really well in Minor League Baseball right out of the gate,” Hunter said. “If you pick the right high school pitcher, you usually have a lot of success. But there are a lot of land mines and risks that go into that.”

The Mariners also have the No. 55 overall pick on Day 1, in the second round. Seattle has a total Draft bonus pool of $9,543,300, including a slot value of $4,880,900 for their No. 15 overall pick.