What's next for Mariners: Important dates, FAs, more

This story was excerpted from Daniel Kramer’s Mariners Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

SEATTLE -- Prior to the offseason officially beginning now that the World Series is over, the Mariners made a few transactions this week by clearing four 40-man roster spots, headlined by reliever Penn Murfee being claimed off waivers by the Mets.

The moves were minor yet essential for housekeeping as the Mariners’ front office prepares for trades, free agent signings and more, especially given that they’ll need to return four players currently on the 60-day injured list back to the active 40-man.

Here’s a primer on where things stand in Seattle:

Which players are free agents? Are any of them likely to receive qualifying offers? How about players with contract options?

The Mariners have a light load this year, with only catcher Tom Murphy and outfielder Teoscar Hernández set to hit the market, along with low-leverage reliever Dominic Leone, who is not expected to return. Hernández is a logical fit to receive the $20.325 million qualifying offer for 2024, but given this year’s thin class of free agent hitters, he may be inclined to pursue a more lucrative long-term deal, in Seattle or elsewhere.

The front office had publicly said it intended to explore a contract extension with Murphy after it held on to him through the Trade Deadline, though he suffered a season-ending thumb injury shortly after. The Mariners could certainly use the veteran next season, as their catching depth beyond Cal Raleigh is thin.

Who might be a non-tender candidate, and when does the club have to make that decision?

Teams have until Nov. 17 to decide whether to tender contracts to each of their arbitration-eligible players, and players not tendered a contract become free agents.

Among that criteria, reliever Trent Thornton could be a candidate given that he’ll see a raise from the $1 million he earned last year and that the Mariners have a knack for unearthing unheralded-turned-key relievers on Minors contracts ahead of Spring Training.

The most curious case, however, is Ty France, who is projected to earn north of $7 million and is coming off an admittedly disappointing season. The Mariners could conceivably view first base as a position to make a significant offensive upgrade and allocate their budget there -- via free agency or trade -- yet if they were to do so, the Nov. 17 deadline to tender contracts could serve as a deadline of sorts to determine if they are prepared to move on from France.

Who needs to be added to the 40-man roster this winter to avoid the Rule 5 Draft?

Among their Top 30 prospects by MLB Pipeline, the Mariners have six players that must be added by Nov. 14 in order to be protected from being selected by other teams: outfielder Alberto Rodriguez (No. 17), pitchers Taylor Dollard (No. 21) and Travis Kuhn (No. 24), shortstop Axel Sanchez (No. 25), outfielder Zach DeLoach (No. 26) and corner infielder Luis Suisbel (No. 30).

Among that group, the most likely to be protected is Rodriguez, who had a solid rebound in 2023 that included a promotion to Double-A Arkansas in early July. DeLoach could be an intriguing option if other clubs view him as a type of fifth outfielder, though they could be hesitant about his 27.8% strikeout rate last year at Triple-A Tacoma. Kuhn fits the mold of a Rule 5 reliever selection, but he was exposed last year and went unselected. Dollard’s labrum surgery last summer will likely prevent other teams from taking him. Sanchez and Suisbel are still a ways off from being MLB-ready.

What kind of help do they need and will they be active in the free agent or trade markets?

Their need for impact offense has been well-chronicled, but their avenues for upgrades appear more limited than in recent offseasons -- at least via free agency, where beyond Shohei Ohtani, the market is thin. This front office, under president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and GM Justin Hollander, has always been more proactive with roster upgrades via trades, and that will almost certainly continue with their specific needs this winter.

What’s the payroll situation?

That’s the multi-million dollar question in certain corners in Seattle, particularly after underwhelming free agent acquisitions last offseason, with higher-priced contracts to arbitration-eligible players incoming soon and with this being such a critical offseason if they hope to keep pace within a division that now houses each of the past two World Series winners.

The Mariners’ projected payroll ranks 17th by both Spotrac and 18th Roster Resource, both of which peg it nearing $130 million. Dipoto said in a season-ending press conference that there will be an increase in 2024, though a significant chunk of that will come in the combined raises of more than $25 million to six players.