What does the future hold for Machado, Padres?

No team has made more headlines for its acquisitions over the past half-decade than the Padres, who have regularly competed with teams in the biggest markets in the country to acquire high-end talent.

The signing of Eric Hosmer to a $144 million deal five years ago this week was just the beginning for general manager A.J. Preller, who shocked the world one year later with his $300 million signing of Manny Machado.

Trades for pitchers including Blake Snell, Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove helped create a formidable rotation to go with the Padres’ star-studded lineup, one that became even more impressive with last summer’s addition of Juan Soto. Given its current core –- which now also includes Xander Bogaerts and his 11-year, $280 million free-agent deal -– the Padres should be embarking on a lengthy run as one of the game’s best teams.

With all of their star power, the Padres appear to be poised to possibly overtake the Dodgers after Los Angeles’ remarkable run of nine division titles in the past 10 years. San Diego hasn’t won the NL West since 2006, so a division title would be quite meaningful.

But what if Machado leaves at the end of the season?

That has become a realistic scenario during the past week, as the All-Star third baseman announced his intention to opt out of the final five years and $150 million of his contract at the end of 2023. Players opt out all the time, so Machado’s comments were hardly a shock. What was surprising, however, was that the Padres did not appear to aggressively make an attempt to sign Machado to an extension prior to the player-imposed deadline.

A report in the San Diego Union-Tribune revealed the details of that deadline, which was the start of Spring Training. Machado confirmed in the report that he and his agent, Dan Lozano, notified the Padres prior to the Winter Meetings in December that he would not negotiate once camp opened.

Those talks wound up consisting of a single offer according to the report -- five additional years at $21 million per season tacked onto his existing deal, a total of 10 years and $265 million -- that came two days before camp began. Given the size of some of the contracts that were signed over the winter, it’s easy to see why Machado appears willing to test free agency, where he may find the perfect storm awaiting him.

The Yankees, Dodgers, Mets, Giants and Cubs could all be in the market for a third baseman -- and all five teams could be in position to spend significant dollars to fill that spot.

Remember four years ago, when Machado and Bryce Harper waited through the entire offseason before landing their respective $300 million contracts? Based on what we saw this winter, Machado is unlikely to endure such a wait this time around.

Unlike this past offseason, when Aaron Judge, Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson offered multiple options for teams seeking a big bat, next year’s free-agent class looks to be led by Shohei Ohtani and Machado, followed by a steep drop-off when it comes to impact bats.

Judge and Turner scored deals worth more than $300 million before the end of the Winter Meetings. Correa agreed to two deals worth more than $300 million before his medicals forced him to “settle” for a six-year, $200 million deal. Bogaerts and Swanson also cashed in, each landing with their new teams before Christmas.

As Machado noted this week, it’s a good time to be a free agent.

“It’s a business,” Machado said last week. “These are things that happen. Markets change. From when I signed five years ago, it’s changed tremendously. Things change and evolve for other players … it’s pretty good to see.”

If Machado is serious about not negotiating again until he reaches free agency -- and there’s no reason to believe he isn’t being sincere -- then the Padres will need to wait until November to lock up the player who has become their de facto captain.

Machado has matured into a leader since joining the Padres, a well-respected veteran who delivers big numbers on the field and a big presence away from it. He is the heartbeat of the Padres.

When Fernando Tatis Jr. suffered an injury last offseason, Machado helped San Diego stay the course. When Tatis was suspended for failing a drug test, many thought it would test the team’s resolve. Machado elevated his play, posting a .935 OPS with 12 home runs and 37 RBI over the club’s final 47 games to help secure a postseason berth.

Machado continued to excel into October, posting a .910 OPS with four home runs in 12 games as the Padres made the NLCS for the first time since 1998. He finished second in NL MVP voting, his second top-three finish in the past three seasons.

Perhaps the Padres are saving their money to re-sign Soto, who turned down a 14-year, $440 million extension from the Nationals prior to being traded last July. But Soto struggled –- by his lofty standards, anyway –- during his 52-game stint following the trade, then again during the first two rounds of the postseason. He won’t be a free agent until after the 2024 season, and given that it’s no lock that he will sign back in San Diego, the Padres risk losing both Machado and Soto when all is said and done.

We have come to expect the unexpected from the Padres. They have been one of the great stories in the game for the past half-decade, making big moves in their quest for the first World Series title in franchise history. Machado and the Padres are a natural fit to remain together for the next decade, but San Diego may have missed an opportunity to lock him in for the long run.

Machado says he’s focused on the 2023 season and not thinking about the future. If this is indeed Machado’s final season in San Diego, Padres fans should do the same and enjoy every moment.