7 teams, 3 spots: The case for each NL Wild Card contender

The National League Wild Card race is so chaotic, so jumbled, so wild_, that you’re grateful there are three Wild Card spots now. How in the world did we once fit this many teams into _one spot?

With less than two months to go in the season, there are seven teams jostling for position, and it’s only seven if you don’t count the Dodgers and the Brewers, two teams that are first place in their division but could easily fall back into the Wild Card chase. No wonder the Trade Deadline was so confusing -- some of these teams can’t tell if they’re coming or going.

As we head toward another exciting week of baseball -- there are just eight of those remaining in the regular season -- we thought we’d try to take stock of the insanity by looking at each team: their playoff odds (through Saturday, via FanGraphs), their Deadline activity and the case for and against them capturing a Wild Card berth. For the sake of clarity, we’re excluding the Braves (who have 99.9% odds of winning the NL East) and the Dodgers (who have 82.8% odds of winning the NL West) and listed teams in order of record, through Saturday.

It’s a madhouse out there. Let’s try to make some sense of it.

Giants
_Record_: 61-50
_Playoff Odds_: 76.5%
_Deadline Moves_: Added OF AJ Pollock

The Case For: The Giants always seem to find ways to figure it out. In a not-dissimilar way to their 2021 team, just about everybody on this roster is a little bit better than anyone thought they’d be, from J.D. Davis to LaMonte Wade Jr. to Alex Cobb to Wilmer Flores, who has been playing like an MVP lately. The Giants have developed such a reputation for wringing everything out of veteran players that no one would be surprised if Pollock turns into an All-Star again immediately.

The Case Against: The rotation is running out of pitchers. They’re asking a lot of rookie defensive whiz Patrick Bailey to basically be Buster Posey behind the plate already. The division is packed with contenders fighting for the same spots they are. Also, for what it’s worth: According to FanGraphs, they’ve got the fourth-toughest schedule in MLB the rest of the way.

Verdict: The Giants are getting in. They might even just figure out a way to win the division.

Phillies
_Record_: 60-51
_Playoff Odds_: 75.7%
_Deadline Moves_: Added SP Michael Lorenzen, INF Rodolfo Castro

The Case For: This team certainly isn’t lacking stars, and even though a lot of them have disappointed this year, they’re still stars. No postseason team wants to run into Bryce Harper and Trea Turner and J.T. Realmuto and Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola in a short series, no matter what their numbers have been like this year. If anything, that so many stars have had issues this year and the Phillies are so well-positioned for the postseason is an argument for the Phillies, not against them. After all, you don’t have to look far in the past to see what kind of run they can get on. Think of them almost like an NBA team whose veterans may be rested for the playoffs.

The Case Against: Older players, in baseball anyway, tend to wear down rather than heat up as the season goes along: Who’s to say Turner and company might not get worse down the stretch rather than better? The bullpen is always going to be a concern. They have seven games left against the Braves, the best team in baseball, more than any other contending team.

Verdict: Seeing Lorenzen pitch as well as he did in his debut on Thursday had to be very reassuring. So many things have gone wrong for the Phillies this year, and yet here they still are. You have to think they’re well-positioned.

Brewers
_Record_: 60-52
_Playoff Odds_: 74.9%
_Deadline Moves_: Added 1B Carlos Santana, OF Mark Canha , RP Andrew Chafin

The Case For: After a middling, injury-riddled first half in which it felt like the Brewers were just barely hanging on, they’ve started to look like the Brewers again of late. Corbin Burnes might have been the best pitcher in baseball in July, and Christian Yelich is starting to look, for the first time in a few years, like that MVP candidate we all once knew. The bullpen is back in lockdown mode, and even the rotation is rounding into form, particularly with the impending return of Brandon Woodruff. They even fortified the lineup with OBP guys they desperately needed. They also have one of the easier schedules of any contender, with almost half their games against the Nationals, Pirates, Cardinals, Rockies and White Sox. What’s not to like?

The Case Against: The lineup still isn’t that imposing, and you do wonder if some of those bullpen arms will tire at some point after carrying a heavy load. Also, the bench is frighteningly thin -- they’re particularly vulnerable to an injury to one of the few good hitters they have. Also, they might win the division and eliminate themselves from this conversation entirely.

Verdict: The Brewers are a serious playoff sleeper team, one with terrific pitching and an offense that’s starting to figure it out. They’re the favorites to win the NL Central.

Reds
_Record_: 59-54
_Playoff Odds_: 24.3%
_Deadline Moves_: Added RP Sam Moll

The Case For: They’re still here, aren’t they? The Reds have potentially situated themselves as the force in the NL Central over the next few years, something few saw coming, even earlier this season. The young talent is electrifying here -- Joey Votto is the only regular over 30, even if he’s way over 30 -- and this has the overwhelming feel of a team on the upswing. And even though he has been struggling for a while, Elly De La Cruz still has the look of a guy who, if it clicks in, could carry a team for a full month … and into the playoffs.

The Case Against: The rotation is a huge mess right now and is relying on young pitchers Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo to recover quickly and be their best selves immediately. Many of those young players, De La Cruz included, seem to be hitting a wall. The team clearly wasn’t going all-in for this year at the Deadline, no offense to Moll. The reason we might have all thought 2023 was a year or two early could be because it was.

Verdict: The Reds have been one of the best stories in baseball this year, but it does seem like they might run out of gas down the stretch. That won’t make this season any less of a success.

Marlins
_Record_: 58-54
_Playoff Odds_: 36.1%
_Deadline Moves_: Added 3B Jake Burger, 1B Josh Bell, RP David Robertson, RP Jorge López

The Case For: Luis Arraez has essentially had to carry this whole offense, but he has a little bit more help now, not just form the new additions but also from Jazz Chisholm Jr., who has hit well since returning from the injured list. The Marlins’ front office could use a playoff berth as some proof of concept, and they’ve clearly invested accordingly -- this has the look of a team that really wants it. They could get a real boost from rookie sensation Eury Pérez, who may well be coming back to this rotation soon.

The Case Against: It sure looks like they’re relying on a 20-year-old kid who hasn’t pitched much since being sent down this summer. Their offense is still not that great, even with the additions. They’ve got the worst run differential of any team on this list: They can’t win every one-run game.

Verdict: The Marlins don’t seem to be fading like some other teams on this list, and it’s nice that they don’t really have to worry about the Mets anymore. But they feel only like a default Wild Card team: If no one steps up, maybe the slot will fall in their laps. (This could very well happen.)

Cubs
_Record_: 57-54
_Playoff Odds_: 42.6%
_Deadline Moves_: Added 3B Jeimer Candelario, RP Jose Cuas

The Case For: For much of this year, the Cubs have felt like underachievers, the only team in the NL Central with a positive run differential but nevertheless mired deep into third place. That all changed a fortnight ago, when the Cubs ripped off an eight-game winning streak. (They’re now in the midst of a three-game one.) The Cubs don’t have a lot of star power, but they also don’t have any obvious holes, and they’re great at one thing: defense, in a way that has transformed their team. (Also, Dansby Swanson is playing like an MVP candidate.) They’re the hottest team in their division. It is to the credit of the front office that they recognized this and added accordingly.

The Case Against: The rotation is showing concerning signs, particularly from Marcus Stroman. It’s also possible that they skip this step entirely and win the NL Central.

Verdict: They’re probably the Brewers’ best competition for the NL Central title this year, rather than the Reds. But if they stay hot, the Wild Card could be there for them as a consolation prize.

D-backs
_Record_: 57-55
_Playoff Odds_: 23.2%
_Deadline Moves_: Added RP Paul Sewald, OF Tommy Pham

The Case For: The D-backs, for most of the year, looked like they’d turned a corner, a deep, young team riding two stars: Cy Young Award contender Zac Gallen and MVP Award contender (and clear Rookie of the Year favorite) Corbin Carroll. A month ago, they were in first place. Then an 8-16 July happened (and an 0-3 start to August). Now they’re behind the Giants and just trying to stave off the charging Padres. Maybe Carroll and Gallen can carry them. They better.

The Case Against: The last month-plus has been a disaster, and it’s all starting to crumble at the exact wrong time. Even Carroll has fallen off in the second half. This team is out of gas.

Verdict: There are encouraging signs for the future. But that future doesn’t look like October 2023.

Padres
_Record_: 55-56
_Playoff Odds_: 45.4%
_Deadline Moves_: Added 1B Ji Man Choi, SP Rich Hill, 1B/OF Garrett Cooper

The Case For: For the only team on this list that currently has a losing record, the Padres sure do seem to scare people. It’s tough to blame them. The Padres have been a monumental disappointment all season, but their underlying metrics have always shown signs of life (unlike fellow disappointments in St. Louis and Queens), perhaps because, well, they have as much talent as any team in the sport. That talent has been showing up of late, and the Padres are looking like themselves. Again: No one wants to face this team in the playoffs.

The Case Against: Is it too late? It might be. They’ve got a tough schedule down the stretch, and they have nearly zero margin for error.

Verdict: If they figure it all out, they could pass every team on this list. But Padres fans have been waiting for them all season to figure it out. Here’s guessing they make a charge and finish just short.