Skenes ascends in latest Rookie of the Year poll

It's a long season, and things can change in a hurry. That baseball truism has doled out reminders many times already in 2024, and our latest Rookie of the Year poll is yet another example.

At the season's halfway point, a panel of 39 MLB.com experts has identified clear front-runners in both rookie races, with one leader going from a distant third in our last poll to an overwhelming favorite now. That's not to say other rookies haven't made strong cases, just that they might have a tough hill to climb in the second half to capture the hardware at the end of the year. Then again, see the first sentence.

Rookies received vote points on a 5-4-3-2-1 scale -- five points for a first-place vote, four points for a second-place vote and so on. Here are the results.

All stats are through Sunday.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

1. Luis Gil, Yankees (25 first-place votes)

Gil maintains a tight grip on the top spot in our poll, as he continues to give the Yankees a much-needed boost in their formerly Gerrit Cole-less rotation. The 26-year-old leads the team in strikeouts (99) and ERA (3.15), and is tied for the lead in wins (nine).

Despite a lackluster June (2-2 with a 6.45 ERA in five starts), Gil is still among the AL leaders in wins, K/9 ratio (10.4) and ERA, and has won nine of his past 11 decisions. He also continues to generate strong whiff (29.2 percent) and strikeout (28 percent) rates, and does a good job keeping the barrel away from the ball.

Without Gil's significant contributions, it's safe to assume the Yankees wouldn't be tied for first in the AL East.

2. Mason Miller, A’s (five first-place votes)

Oakland's flame-throwing righty continues to be one of the most exciting and dominant pitchers in baseball. He leads all AL relievers in strikeouts (64), strikeout percentage (47.1), K/9 (15.7), fWAR (1.6) and batting average against (.132), and has racked up 14 saves in 16 opportunities for the A's while pitching to a sparkling 1.96 ERA.

Miller also easily leads all of baseball in pitches of 100 mph or higher (265). If not for Gil's outstanding season thus far, Miller's name could very well be atop this list.

3. Colton Cowser, Orioles (eight first-place votes)

After hitting to a 1.004 OPS through April, Cowser's bat has cooled significantly. Still, he's shown more than enough talent to keep him in the Rookie of the Year discussion.

Cowser's 12 homers and 116 OPS+ are plenty strong for a rookie, despite his low average (.223) and high number of strikeouts (77). But when he makes contact, he consistently hits the ball hard (his barrel rate is in MLB's 95 percentile), which is usually a key ingredient in offensive production. His expected stats indicate he's hit some bad luck so far, but the peripherals are there. For example, his expected slugging percentage is .500, but his actual slugging percentage is .442. If he keeps barreling pitches, his numbers should balance out and show why he belongs in this race.

4. Wilyer Abreu, Red Sox

Abreu spent the bulk of June on the IL with an ankle injury, but his production during the first two months of the season was certainly noteworthy, as evidenced by his .829 OPS before the injury.

Since returning from the IL on June 22, though, Abreu has just two extra-base hits in his first seven games and has a .304 on-base percentage in 23 plate appearances. But those numbers can likely be chalked up to him having to re-adjust to Major League pitching, meaning the Abreu who Red Sox fans have come to know since his callup last season should make an appearance before long. He continues to hit the ball hard (his hard-hit rate is in MLB's 85^th percentile) and he's still on pace for 3.2 fWAR, which you'll take anytime from a rookie.

5. Wyatt Langford, Rangers (one first-place vote)

An IL stint in May has limited Langford to just 60 games in 2024, but he's shown flashes of why he was the Rangers' No. 1 prospect coming into the season. Since returning from the IL on May 28, Langford has hit .299 with an .849 OPS, punctuated by his first cycle on Sunday night in Baltimore.

Though his hard-hit rate is just in MLB's 60^th percentile, Langford has elite speed that allows him to leg out extra-base hits, steal bases and score runs. He's among the top 10 in triples in the AL, despite missing three weeks. As the summer gets hotter in Texas, it's possible Langford will too.

Others receiving votes: Ceddanne Rafaela (Red Sox), David Hamilton (Red Sox), Simeon Woods-Richardson (Twins), Cade Smith (Guardians), Hunter Gaddis (Guardians), Evan Carter (Rangers), Justin Slaten (Red Sox), Wenceel Pérez (Tigers), Spencer Horwitz (Blue Jays)

NATIONAL LEAGUE

1. Paul Skenes, Pirates (30 first-place votes)

It's been quite the ascent for Skenes. He didn't crack the top five in our May rookie poll (because, well, he hadn't debuted yet), then vaulted to No. 3 in June, and now he's reached the summit as the runaway leader for July. Though somewhat surprising, it's also not all that unexpected.

Skenes and his consistent triple-digit fastball, devastating split finger and unique "splinker" came with the kind of hype that can be hard for players to live up to. But Skenes has matched the hype so far. His average 99.2 mph fastball velocity is in baseball's 99^th percentile and his 34.1 percent strikeout rate is also among MLB's best. He's 4-0 with a 2.06 ERA in nine starts for the Pirates and has 70 strikeouts in 52 1/3 innings. In other words, he's everything the Pirates – and baseball fans – hoped he'd be.

2. Jackson Merrill, Padres (two first-place votes)

Merrill has had an excellent rookie campaign. He leads all qualified NL rookies in average (.294), home runs (12), slugging percentage (.464) and RBIs (42), and ranks third in OPS (.792). And if his expected stats are to be believed, he might get even better.

Merrill's expected average is a tad higher than his actual average, at .301, but his expected slugging percentage is 45 points higher than his slugging reality. If the expectation begins to merge more with the reality, Merrill could find himself as the ROY favorite by season's end.

3. Shota Imanaga, Cubs (two first-place votes)

Imanaga's power over hitters has definitely lessened since he started 5-0 with a 0.78 ERA, but he's still been plenty good. Despite a 6.89 ERA since May 29 – fueled in large part by a three-inning, 10-run outing against the Mets on June 21 – Imanaga's season ERA is still a very strong 3.07.

Also noteworthy: His 24.1 percent strikeout rate is still above league average, despite his famously "slow" (but effective) 92 mph fastball. One big reason is because he gets batters to chase outside the zone: His 35.1 percent chase rate is in baseball's 95^th percentile. Despite some recent bumps, Imanaga remains a pitcher just about any team would take in its rotation.

4. Joey Ortiz, Brewers (three first-place votes)

Ortiz hasn't gotten much fanfare in discussions of this year's rookie talent, but he's been putting together a great season for the first-place Brewers. His .835 OPS leads all MLB qualified rookies, as does his .380 on-base percentage.

He's also second among MLB rookies in walks (35), giving evidence of an elite eye in the box. He doesn't chase or whiff that much, either. Ortiz is also a strong defender who can play multiple infield positions, and he's among the infield leaders in Runs Prevented and Outs Above Average. So pay more attention to Joey Ortiz, is what we're saying.

5. Gavin Stone, Dodgers

In a Dodgers rotation that's been full of health questions for most of the season, Stone has emerged as a saving grace. Through 15 starts, his 2.73 ERA is tops on the team and Los Angeles has won in 10 of his past 11 starts.

While Stone doesn't overpower hitters – his 19.5 percent strikeout rate is near the bottom third in the Majors – he induces a lot of soft contact, allowing the Dodgers' defense to do its thing and keep opponents off the board. With every outing, Stone keeps getting outs and helping the Dodgers win, which is about all you can ask of a pitcher.

Others receiving votes: Jared Jones (Pirates), Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Dodgers), Masyn Winn (Cardinals), Michael Busch (Cubs), Bryan Hudson (Brewers), Jackson Chourio (Brewers)