Who will go from sub-.500 to the postseason?

Entering last season, we shared with you an incredible fact: Over the last 35 seasons, dating back to 1987, we saw a team go from below .500 one season into the playoffs the next 33 times, and in many of those seasons, it was more than one team -- 72 such teams over 35 seasons, as we found. It made us think that we’d see the same thing happen in 2023, and so we looked at 2022’s losing teams to find the best candidates.

So what happened in 2023? Four losing teams in 2022 made it to October in 2023. Two of them, Arizona and Texas, faced off in the World Series. The Twins, who won the AL Central, had been our No. 1 pick in our preview. (Miami was the fourth team.)

Now, that means that in 34 of the last 36 seasons, we’ve seen a losing team get to October, and while 95% of the time isn’t 100% of the time, it’s about as close to a guarantee as you can get these days. It hasn’t failed to work since back in 2005, and of course now that we have 12 postseason slots, it’s more likely than ever that a losing team makes a big turnaround in one year. It happens so regularly.

If it seems like the Dodgers and Braves will be good every season, that might be true, but it doesn’t apply to everyone. Someone is going to go from disappointment to selling playoff tickets -- perhaps more than one someone.

All of which leads us to this question: Who, in 2024, will those teams be?

This is actually trickier than we thought, because there are a few non-playoff teams from last year who had seasons that could be described as “disappointing,” yet didn’t actually end with losing records -- so the Yankees, Cubs, and Padres, each with various cases for 2024 contention, don’t count here. Neither do the Reds, who didn’t make the playoffs, but finished 82-80.

That means we have 13 options this year of teams that could go from losing to in, and if past performance holds, one or more of those 13 will play ball in the fall. We’ll look at FanGraphs’ playoff odds as of March 6, eliminate the four clubs with negligible postseason odds (Rockies, Nationals, White Sox, and A’s) and rank the other nine. Who has the best chance to keep this streak going? It’s one of these clubs.

1. Cardinals (54%)

Why it will be them: Because, as always, the NL Central is without an obvious favorite, perhaps more so this year than in most previous years. The path to a division title is wide open, but in a National League with a Big Two (Dodgers, Braves) and a good third (Phillies), so are at least two Wild Card spots, which is why the Cardinals have only 36% odds of winning the division while also 18% odds of securing a Wild Card spot. St. Louis notably went out early and signed three starting pitchers to reinforce its rotation, and there’s reason to believe that youngsters Masyn Winn and Jordan Walker can solidify everyday roles both for this year and the future. It was easy to lose sight of after his rough landing in St. Louis, but catcher Willson Contreras improved both at the bat and behind the plate as the year went on. Last season was bad, but 2024 doesn’t have to be, too.

Why it won’t: Because the entire projected starting rotation is already 33 years old or will be soon, and Gray is already dealing with a hamstring problem this spring. Meanwhile, infield cornerstones Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado will be 37 and 33, respectively, this season, which puts a lot of pressure on older players to stay healthy and productive.

2. Giants (36%)

Why it will be them: Because despite a winter that most Giants fans would describe as “frustrating,” they eventually did make three serious lineup additions in Jung-Ho Lee, Matt Chapman, and Jorge Soler, which should do a lot to help jump-start a moribund offense that scored the second-fewest runs in the NL last year. Chapman, catcher Patrick Bailey, and second baseman Thairo Estrada are all good-to-great defensively; they have a pair of the best pitchers in the NL in ace starter Logan Webb and closer Camilo Doval; and new manager Bob Melvin is one of the most respected skippers in the business. They won’t challenge the Dodgers in the West, but as we said with St. Louis, the bottom of the NL Wild Card field is wide open.

Why it won’t: Because the starting rotation behind Webb was already dreadfully thin before multiple spring injuries thinned it out further. Unless further additions are made, it’s difficult to see this roster having enough pitching to contend throughout a six-month season -- especially if the surprising Jordan Hicks reliever-to-starter conversion doesn’t work.

3. Guardians (31%)

Why it will be them: Because they have the best projected defense in baseball for 2024, and because the defending AL Central champion Twins had somewhat of an indifferent offseason. So did Cleveland, to be fair; the club didn’t do anything more interesting than bring back backup catcher Austin Hedges. But it’s also not that hard to see the pitching being stellar this year, especially if Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie are each healthy -- which, so far in spring, they seem to be.

Why it won’t: Because the most powerless offense in baseball didn’t do a whole lot to change that, which is a hard way to win in 2024, particularly with seven potential playoff contenders in the East and West divisions.

4. Tigers (28%)

Why it will be them: Because they went out and added a number of veteran pieces to help the young core -- Kenta Maeda, Jack Flaherty, Mark Canha, Gio Urshela and Shelby Miller among them -- and there’s reason to believe that young core is ready to produce right now. Spencer Torkelson might not ever live up to that No. 1 overall pick billing, but he did hit 31 homers last year, while Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, and Parker Meadows all showed a lot of promise to build upon. Maybe Javier Baez will be healthier and more productive. Maybe Tarik Skubal turns last year’s incredible second half into the full-season Cy Young turn it seems clear he’s capable of. As with Cleveland, a lot of this is about the AL Central, where the Tigers have higher odds to win the division (18%) than a Wild Card (11%).

Why it won’t: Because there’s a lot of good, interesting players here, but there might not be a single star unless Skubal really does have that full-season breakout. There’s currently not a single Tiger aside from Skubal who is projected for 3 WAR, and that’s a relatively low bar to clear in a world where 2 WAR is “average” and 4 WAR is “All-Star.”

5. Mets (28%)

Why it will be them: Because everyone is excited about the breakout potential of second-year catcher Francisco Álvarez, and new president of baseball operations David Stearns did plenty of work to add pitching depth (Sean Manaea, Adrian Houser, Luis Severino) after a season in which the plan of relying on 40-year-old aces Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander ended poorly. Plus, prospects Mike Vasil and Christian Scott may contribute as well. It doesn’t hurt that Starling Marte is healthier and that Pete Alonso should be well-motivated in a walk year. Oh, and don’t forget this: Edwin Díaz is back.

Why it won’t: Because Kodai Senga is already dealing with a shoulder injury that will likely keep him off the roster for the first few weeks, and José Quintana starting on Opening Day isn’t exactly what Mets fans had in mind. Ronny Mauricio’s season-ending knee injury puts even more pressure on Brett Baty to perform, and the Mets are closer to the fourth-best team in their division than the second best.

6. Red Sox (26%)

Why it will be them: Because last year’s horrific defense should be somewhat better, especially with Tyler O’Neill in left and Masataka Yoshida at DH, and there’s a lot of excitement to see how young bats Triston Casas, Wilyer Abreu, and Ceddane Rafaela fare over a full season. It’s not that hard to see Bryan Bello -- just signed to a six-year extension -- taking another step forward in the rotation, and a full season of Trevor Story may finally deliver the promise expected when they signed him. There’s a version of the bullpen that has Liam Hendriks setting up for Kenley Jansen later in the season. While they’re probably the weakest team in the AL East, they might also be projected to contend in the AL Central.

Why it won’t: Because Vaughn Grissom, the projected starting second baseman and the team’s return for Chris Sale, is injured and unlikely to be ready for Opening Day. Like the Tigers, they’re short on stars, with only Rafael Devers projected for even 3 WAR, and on Tuesday, it came out that Lucas Giolito has an elbow injury that might cost him the entire season, further stressing a weak rotation. While the strength of their division isn’t their fault, it still is difficult to simultaneously say “this fifth-place team can make the playoffs.”

7. Pirates (18%)

Why it will be them: For all of the “the NL Central is unsettled” reasons we’ve already said, plus the fact that, for the first time in a while, there are prospects to dream on here. Imagine if Paul Skenes and Jared Jones are in the rotation with the newly extended Mitch Keller by the summer? Imagine if Ke’Bryan Hayes, already the best defensive third baseman in the game, can continue his red-hot second half (.539 slugging) into 2024? Imagine if the otherworldly talented O’Neil Cruz, who played just nine games last year before fracturing his left fibula, delivers on the promise we all know is there? Throw in Aroldis Chapman to the back end of a bullpen that already features David Bednar and Colin Holderman, and this team might hold down the leads it gets. Imagine 2021’s No. 1 overall pick Henry Davis helping lead franchise legend Andrew McCutchen back to the playoffs? The stories write themselves.

Why it won’t: Because there are just so many ifs there, and it didn’t help that useful starter Johan Oviedo and young catcher Endy Rodriguez each underwent season-ending elbow surgery before Spring Training even began. Keller is talented but still inconsistent (3.31 first-half ERA, then a 5.59 second-half ERA), and this might be a season when getting over .500 for the first time since 2015 is considered a success.

8. Angels (16%)

Why it will be them: Because they still have Mike Trout, and now they have Ron Washington, too. Trout is loyal to the Angels, and at 32, there’s still time for him to have one (or more) of those all-time great seasons. Robert Stephenson was something like the best reliever in baseball in the second half, and now he’s an Angel.

Why it won’t: Because they couldn’t do it with Shohei Ohtani and Trout, and now they do not have Ohtani. What they do have is 2024’s weakest projected team defense, and very little starting depth behind a few interesting young arms. Clearly the fourth-best team in the AL West, they’ll have to climb a lot of hills just to get back to .500 for the first time since 2015.

9. Royals (13%)

Why it will be them: Because the Royals went out and made a ton of moves this winter, trying to add veteran depth around the rare team that has both a legitimate MVP candidate (Bobby Witt Jr.) and a legitimate Cy Young contender (Cole Ragans). Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Adam Frazier, Will Smith, and Hunter Renfroe don’t all move the needle, but they’re competent veterans who have had success, and the bullpen has plenty of talented breakouts-in-waiting who you don’t even know -- like James McArthur and John McMillion.

A return to health from first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino and potential improvement from Brady Singer could go a long way towards making this club competitive sooner than expected.

Why it won’t: Because they lost 106 games last year, and even just to get back to an even .500 would require an improvement of 25 wins from one year to the next -- and that still wouldn’t likely be enough to get them into the AL Wild Card race. It’s not impossible for a team to improve by that much in just a year, but it’s incredibly rare, and this feels more like a situation where they improve by a huge margin, yet still lose around 90 games, in anticipation of a 2025 run.