Sub-.500 to playoffs? These teams could do it

In the Major Leagues in 2022, there were 14 teams who finished with losing records. A number of them will likely lose more games than they win in 2023, as well. But not all of them will. One or more might even make the playoffs. How do we know this? Because this almost always happens, every single year. So: Who is it going to be?

We’ll get to that, but first, let’s explain what we mean. There were three teams last year to go from below-.500 to the playoffs (Mets, Padres, Guardians). There were four such teams in 2021 (Giants, Brewers, Astros, Red Sox), three teams in 2020 (White Sox, Reds Padres), one in 2019 (Twins) and two in 2018 (A’s, Braves), and the point here is that you have to go all the way back to the 2005 playoffs to find an October that didn’t include a team coming off a losing season. Before that, it hadn’t happened since 1992.

If you go back over the past 35 postseasons, dating back to 1987, then 33 of them have had at least one participant coming off a losing season. Five times, there were four such teams. A total of 72 teams over those 35 seasons went from under-.500 to playing fall baseball. Who are we to say it won’t happen again this year – especially given that there are now a dozen teams to make the playoffs, up from two (all of baseball history through 1968), four (1969-93), and eight to 10 (1995-2021)?

It’s not, in and of itself, predictive. But it sure is a heck of a trend, and, as we look ahead to 2023, it makes us think that we’d better get right out ahead of this and figure out who that team or teams will be.

As we said, we’re starting with 14 options. Last year, the Twins, Red Sox, Cubs, D-backs, Angels, Marlins, Rangers, Rockies, Tigers, Royals, Pirates, Reds, A’s, and Nationals finished below .500. Some of those clubs are highly likely to do it again, so in order to slim this list down, we’ll take those 14, head over to FanGraphs, and look only at the teams with at least a 10% projected chance of making the 2023 playoffs.

That leaves us with seven contenders, each shown with current 2023 playoff odds, per FanGraphs, which we’ll list in order, because it totally agrees with the subjective way we’d have ranked them anyway.

1. Twins (48%)

Why it will be them: Because the AL Central is relatively weak – the Guardians are more good than great – and because the Twins made moves this winter to improve their defense, depth and rotation, which could be sneaky good if Pablo López (sweeper) and Joe Ryan (sweeper, splitter) use their new pitches to really take off.

Don’t forget, the Twins did spend 41 more days in first than Cleveland did last year, until they were torpedoed by bullpen and injury woes; no AL team had more injury days missed than Minnesota. Throw in promising reports on swing changes by Joey Gallo and Carlos Correa, the return of Kenta Maeda, and the elite relief of Jhoan Duran, and it’s not that hard to see this team going from 78-84 to October.

Why it won’t: Because they don’t have a true ace and Byron Buxton hasn’t played in 100 games since 2017.

2. Angels (39%)

Why it will be them: Because they have Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, although that’s been true for years, and they haven’t finished at even .500 since 2015, so maybe that’s not good enough. But GM Perry Minasian took a different approach this winter, reinforcing his superstars with a more solid base of contributors, and an Ohtani/Tyler Anderson 1-2 might be the best top-of-the-rotation this team has had in years. Consider us all-in on Taylor Ward’s breakout continuing into 2023 – and, if they’re close in July, you can guarantee they’ll be as aggressive as possible to entice Ohtani to stay.

Why it won’t: Because the bullpen remains thin and they’re at best the third-best team in what’s shaping up to be a difficult division.

3. Rangers (37%)

Why it will be them: Because no one has tried harder to make it happen the last two years, taking 2021’s 102-loss disaster and adding Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray and Andrew Heaney. They haven’t won even 80 games since 2016, but they’ve spent a great deal of money the last two winters to get back to October. While there are questions in the outfield and bullpen, not enough people realize that Nathaniel Lowe hit as well as Pete Alonso did last year.

Why it won’t be them: Like the Angels, the AL West is a tough place to be behind Houston and Seattle, but also, this plan basically demands that deGrom, Eovaldi and Heaney remain healthy. It … could happen?

4. Red Sox (29%)

Why it will be them_: Bad vibes from losing Xander Bogaerts (and Trevor Story getting hurt) aside, Boston did go out and add a bunch of veterans who should help, such as Justin Turner, Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin and Corey Kluber. The club also made a big splash in landing outfielder Masataka Yoshida from Japan. _If Chris Sale is healthy, and if Yoshida adjusts well, and if Story returns later in the year, there are enough pieces here around Rafael Devers to make it interesting. It’s a lot of ifs.

Why it won’t be them: Because it's a lot of ifs, and because they might also be the fifth-best team in the AL East.

5. Marlins (19%)

Why it will be them: Because they still have Sandy Alcantara, and they correctly identified that their extremely weak offense needed help, leading to the arrivals of Luis Arraez and Jean Segura. A full year of healthy Jazz Chisholm Jr. could be a star turn, and Bryan de la Cruz is a popular breakout pick. Either one stepping up, along with even just a little more from Avasaíl García or Jorge Soler – who both disappointed in their first years in Miami – would go a long way toward helping Miami score runs.

Why it won’t be them: Because the changes made to the lineup, while welcome, likely won’t be enough, and the cost was a weakened defense and a good starting pitcher (Pablo López) – to say nothing of the fact that the NL East has three championship-level teams above them.

6. D-backs (11%)

Why it will be them: Because the Dodgers, for once, seem slightly vulnerable, and because this Arizona lineup is going to be just a whole lot of fun. They didn’t commit $111 million to Corbin Carroll for no reason, after all, and between new additions (Gabriel Moreno, Lourdes Gurriel, Kyle Lewis), other prospects (Jake McCarthy, Alek Thomas), and veteran incumbents (Christian Walker, Ketel Marte), there’s really, really a lot to like on offense here.

Why it won’t be them: The Dodgers may be vulnerable, but the Padres still exist, and for all the fun the offense may provide, the entire pitching staff is questionable beyond the top two starters.

7. Cubs (10%)

Why it will be them: Because the NL Central doesn’t exactly have a super-team, and because after two nondescript years in the wilderness, the Cubs have made some moves to improve, most notably in Dansby Swanson, but also in Trey Mancini, Jameson Taillon, Michael Fulmer, Cody Bellinger and Tucker Barnhart. It’s fair to expect more from Seiya Suzuki in year two, and they already got Marcus Stroman last year. Maybe Matt Mervis shows up and rakes; maybe the pitching factory starts churning out more success. They should be more interesting, at the very least, and competitive, too.

Why it won’t be them: Because, given the fact that the East and West divisions have at least five teams likely stronger than the Cubs, this is division-or-bust – and St. Louis and Milwaukee won’t make that easy.