Inbox: Adley, Tork or J-Rod?

Happy Opening Day, everyone!

The start of the Major League season means we get to see some of our favorite prospects in action at the highest level. Some will compete for Rookie of the Year Award honors, as detailed in our preseason Rookie Power Rankings. Others will head to alternate sites, either waiting for that call to the big leagues or the start of the Minor League season.

Between that and Draft fever really starting to spike (thanks to Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter in particular!), there’s certainly plenty to talk about. Jason Ratliff, Jim Callis and Sam Dykstra covered a lot of that ground in this week’s Pipeline Podcast. That terrific trio also answered one of your questions about Michael Harris of the Braves (in a nutshell: He has some upside!). Now I’ll get to some more of your queries in this week’s Inbox.

Julio, Adley or Torkelson long-term?
-- @rnarkie

Well, If I’m going to be true to our Top 100 rankings, I’d have to go with Adley Rutschman (our No. 2 prospect), followed by Spencer Torkelson (No. 3) and then Julio Rodríguez (No. 5). And there’s good reason to, despite my desire not to contradict what we have on the site.

The trio have similar offensive tools. Rutschman and Rodríguez have 60-grade hit tools and 65-grade power while Torkelson is 60-70. So all three are plus hitters with at least plus power. What sets Rutschman apart from this group, then, is the defense (at a premium position, no less). When you add in his 60-grade arm and 65-grade defense behind the plate, it’s hard not to want to build a franchise around him. You can make an argument that his offense will wear down with years catching, but I don’t buy that.

Now, after that, I might be tempted to flip the order a bit. Don’t get me wrong, I think Tork is going to hit. A lot. But I have to say I’m on the J-Rod train. I can’t say a guy at No. 5 is under-ranked, but I think we’re looking at a very special run producer with 90 makeup and personality who is going to take MLB by storm, one whose overall athleticism is under-appreciated because the bat is so, so good.

Which Rays pitching prospect has the best chance of making an impact this season, Shane Baz, Luis Patiño, Josh Fleming, Shane McClanahan, or Brendan McKay?
-- @IamaRedSoxfan

The answer is yes.

OK, maybe that’s pushing it a little bit. Honestly, I was a little surprised to see that only Fleming out of this group made the Opening Day roster, but there’s a lot of talent in Tampa these days. The Rays have never hesitated to use their farm system and there’s a general belief that in 2021, the first full season after last year’s shortened year, the need for extra arms will become even more important. And the Rays, as the question shows, have plenty of them.

I think Patiño and Fleming will get the most innings, with Patiño having the chance to really create buzz in his American League debut with his electric stuff, while Fleming being a pitchability-lefty type who can serve in a variety of roles and soak up innings without as much flash. We all saw Shane McClanahan’s stuff in the postseason last year and in the spring. He’ll get stretched out so he can continue to work on starting at the alternate training site and perhaps the start of the Minor League season, but it would be easy enough to shorten him up and have his power repertoire play up in shorter stints out of the 'pen, so I’d put him third in this informal ranking. McKay is a question mark as he works his way back from labrum surgery, and I wouldn’t count on him too much in 2021 – anything would be bonus this year, I’d think. And Baz has yet to officially pitch above Low A, so I think even if he leaps to Double-A this year, seeing him in 2022 makes more sense. Could he lend a hand in the 'pen in September? Sure, that might work, but I don’t think there will be the need to rush him.

Will Akil Baddoo actually get to play this year?
-- @JoelKolko

A Rule 5 pick done good! At least so far. Baddoo was an intriguing selection in the first place, as toolsy hitters don’t often stick in the big leagues because there is the need for them to get regular reps. The Twins had rolled the dice that the time Baddoo had missed in the past would keep teams from taking/keeping him, but frankly, he played his way onto the Tigers' Opening Day roster with his spring.

The outfielder, No. 24 on the Tigers’ Top 30, hit .325/.460/.750 with five homers, four steals and 11 RBIs in 21 Grapefruit League games this spring. He hadn’t played in two years, nor had he played a game above A ball, but he left the Tigers with no choice. So they’re carrying five outfielders, which does create some playing time challenges. It sounds like they’ll ease him in as a pinch-runner or defensive replacement to get his feet wet, but as the Tigers rebuild continues, you have to think he’ll get his opportunities to hit. And as the old adage goes, if you hit, you find a place in the lineup.

Victor Reyes got 212 at-bats in his rookie season (2018) with the Tigers after he was taken in the 2017 Rule 5 Draft, and he’s become a solid fourth outfielder. Baddoo has more upside than Reyes did, and I could see him eating into Reyes’ time if he swings the bat well. I’ll put the over/under at 300 at-bats in 2021.

After Rocker and Leiter, who’s the next best pitching prospect in the upcoming Draft?
-- @InOrioles

Rocker and Leiter clearly have separated themselves from the rest of the pitching pack, without clear choices about who definitively would be next. But after conferring with a few scouts on the matter, here are some choices beyond the Vanderbilt right-handers.

In terms of other college right-handers, the choices seem to be Ty Madden, Texas (1.83 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, .149 batting average against, 11.4 K/9) or Gunnar Hoglund, Mississippi (2.63 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, .194 BAA, 15.5 K/9). Kansas State’s Jordan Wicks (2.65 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, .214 BAA, 12.3 K/9) gets mentioned as the top college lefty in the class, but feels like he’s a step behind the other two right-handers. And finally, if you’re looking for a high school arm, the one whose name seems to be generating the most buzz right now is Jackson Jobe, a right-hander from the Oklahoma prep ranks who is actually a very good two-way player, though most teams see his future coming on the mound.