4 lessons learned from familiar Phillies-Braves NLDS

ATLANTA -- National League East rivals Philadelphia and Atlanta are hardly strangers. For the second straight October, that familiar matchup takes the NL Division Series stage, beginning on Saturday night at Truist Park.

Just like last season, the Braves finished 14 games ahead of the Phillies and captured the season series. But come the postseason, all bets are off. Philadelphia has won each of its previous two postseason series against Atlanta (1993 NL Championship Series, 2022 NLDS).

“It's the postseason. It's different,” Braves manager Brian Snitker said. “The game's played differently. You do different things. It's exciting. Both ballparks are going to be crazy. But it's kind of why we've just played these last seven months: to put ourselves in this position, to be able to experience this.”

Here are four lessons learned from last year’s NLDS -- which the Phillies won in four games -- that could shape this one.

1. Home-field advantage is a real factor with a raucous Philly crowd waiting for Games 3 and 4.

Not to put the onus on the first game of a best-of-five series, but it’s usually a predictor of the eventual winner.

Since 2013 (after the format shifted from 2-3 to 2-2-1), 10 of the 13 road teams that won Game 1 of a best-of-five DS went on to capture the series. Sixteen of the 23 home teams that won Game 1 advanced.

Philadelphia put the pressure on Atlanta by jumping out to a six-run lead in Game 1 of the 2022 NLDS, making the Truist Park crowd a non-factor until a late rally fell short. Though the Braves evened the series in Game 2, the Phillies won Games 3 and 4 by a combined score of 17-4.

Take it from someone who was present for the 2022 NLCS and '23 NL Wild Card Series: Citizens Bank Park is loud. Like my-phone-warned-of-decibel-levels loud.

After sweeping the Marlins earlier this week, the Phillies improved to 24-11 at Citizens Bank Park in the postseason. That .686 win percentage is the best record in the postseason for any team in any park (min. 20 games). Last postseason, they opened with six straight home wins before dropping two in a row to the Astros in the World Series.

Atlanta posted the second-best home record in MLB, going 52-29 (.642) in 2023. Philadelphia ranked fifth (51-32, .615). The Braves have won eight of their past 10 postseason home games.

Something’s got to give, right?

“Obviously, when you don't have home-field [advantage], you have to win at least one game in their ballpark,” Phillies manager Rob Thomson said. “And we won the first game of the series, which ended up being huge for us, really.”

2. Star players need to rise to the occasion.

Bryce Harper went 8-for-16 with three doubles, two homers and five RBIs in last year's matchup, and the two-time NL MVP winner was just getting started. He was named NLCS MVP after another standout performance against the Padres.

The Phillies went 7-0 when Harper drove in a run during their 2022 postseason run.

Ronald Acuña Jr., meanwhile, finished 5-for-15 with just one extra-base hit and no RBIs in the 2022 NLDS. He also goofed on defense in Game 4, when he forgot to back up center fielder Michael Harris II on J.T. Realmuto’s inside-the-park homer.

Fully recovered from the torn ACL he sustained in 2021, Acuña slashed .372/.447/.698 with 35 homers and 87 RBIs in wins and hit just .268 with six homers and 19 RBIs in losses during a NL MVP-worthy regular season.

“I'm really excited just to be going into this postseason healthy,” Acuña said via interpreter Franco García. “We have high expectations, and I think for us, it's just about going out there and playing the game we've been playing all season long.”

3. There’s a good chance the team that scores first will win.

Since the start of divisional play in 1969, teams are 908-463 (.662) when scoring first. That rang true in last year’s NLDS, with a perfect 1.000 win percentage.

Acuña is the engine that drives this historic Braves lineup, which produced the second-most runs in the first inning (146) in the Expansion Era (since 1961). Atlanta led the Majors with a .642 win percentage, and that mark rose to .723 (47-18) when they plated a run in the first this season.

And yet the high-octane Braves lineup didn't score a run in the first inning of last year’s NLDS, a big reason why they were knocked out by the underdog Phillies.

“I mean, it's no secret that the Braves are a really good team,” Phillies Game 1 starter Ranger Suárez said. “They have really good hitters, the champion bat. They have possibly the National League MVP, too. So to me, it's just a matter of executing, doing the right things. So I know it's going to be a tough game, but I'm ready for a challenge.”

4. Time off and momentum could affect both teams again.

In Game 3 of last year’s NLDS, Philadelphia chased rookie righty Spencer Strider in the third inning after his noticeable dip in velocity. Strider had thrown off the mound just twice over the previous 26 days due to an oblique strain. This time around, the uncertainty revolves around lefty Max Fried, who dealt with a blister in his final two starts and is slated to start Game 2.

And then there’s the rust factor.

Philadelphia played some of its best baseball against Miami, while Atlanta staged three scrimmages this week. But Suárez hasn’t taken the mound in nine days. Last October, he went a week between his final regular-season start and NLDS Game 1. Suárez wasn’t as sharp, walking five but holding the Braves to one run in 3 1/3 innings.

“Having the time off, I think, is still beneficial,” said Strider, who is Atlanta’s Game 1 starter. “Some people talk about getting to play is better than having the time off, but I think it's good for us to sort of take a little bit of a chance to recover. And like I said, we did get our reps in this week. So, yeah, everybody feels good.”