The disciplined approach behind Tucker's MVP push

The Astros are at the 50-game mark of their season, and Kyle Tucker is more than twice as good as your average big leaguer.

Tucker leads the Majors with 17 home runs and a 1.060 OPS. His OPS+, which compares him to his peers, is 202, also the best in MLB, even higher than Shohei Ohtani's 198. League average is 100.

We already knew Tucker was really good. He's blossomed into an MVP-type player over the last few seasons. But this is obviously another level. Tucker's career high in homers is 30; right now he's on pace for 55. So what's behind Tucker's surge?

He's zoned in. Tucker's discipline, and pitch selection, is at its peak. And that is letting him do the most damage with every swing.

"I just try and put together good at-bats and be pretty selective up there and take my walks and try to do damage when they throw it over the plate," Tucker said after taking over the MLB home run lead on Tuesday. "I think I’ve been doing a pretty good job with that, and I think us, as a whole, have been doing a pretty good job with that."

You can follow Tucker's ascendance as a hitter through one simple trend: his walks vs. his strikeouts.

In 2024, Tucker is walking more than he strikes out for the first time in his career. He's drawn 41 walks, second in the Majors to Aaron Judge. He has only 36 K's.

Tucker's one of only three qualified hitters with more walks than strikeouts. Mookie Betts and the Phillies' Bryson Stott are the other two. That's kind of how Major League Baseball works today -- only a few hitters in any given year will walk more than they strike out. Last year, for example, the list was Juan Soto, José Ramírez, Luis Arraez and Tucker's teammate Alex Bregman.

For Tucker, this is the product of a years-long development that began with his first full season in the big leagues in 2020. The ratio of his strikeouts to his walks has shrunk every season, until finally, in 2024, it has flipped.

Tucker's K:BB ratio by season
Since his first full MLB season in 2020

• 2020 -- 2.6 K per BB
• 2021 -- 1.7 K per BB
• 2022 -- 1.6 K per BB
• 2023 -- 1.2 K per BB
• 2024 -- 0.9 K per BB (36 K, 41 BB)

You can't do that by accident. Tucker's approach at the plate has evolved.

He is, as you might expect, chasing bad pitches at the lowest rate of his career. Tucker's 16.0% chase rate in 2024 ranks in the 98th percentile of MLB hitters. It's over five percentage points lower than it was last year (21.6%), and over 10 points lower than it was two years ago (26.1%).

But that discipline is also part of a larger shift by Tucker toward selectivity. He's swinging a lot less overall, even against pitches in the zone. But for Tucker, where there are fewer swings, there are smarter swings.

A greater share of Tucker's swings are coming vs. pitches in the strike zone than ever before -- and also, more specifically, pitches in the heart of the strike zone. (That means pitches that are well within the zone, not on the edges, the ones a hitter definitely wants to swing at.)

% of Tucker's swings vs. in-zone / heart-of-zone pitches

• 2020 -- 72.6% vs. in-zone / 44.1% vs. heart
• 2021 -- 73.9% vs. in-zone / 45.2% vs. heart
• 2022 -- 74.9% vs. in-zone / 42.9% vs. heart
• 2023 -- 77.3% vs. in-zone / 46.0% vs. heart
• 2024 -- 79.3% vs. in-zone / 49.0% vs. heart

And Tucker's contact rate against those hittable strikes is also at a career-high level -- he's putting the bat on the ball 87.6% of the time against pitches in the strike zone, and 92.6% of the time against pitches in the heart of the zone.

Tucker is only swinging at the strikes he really wants to hit. So when he lets it rip, he's going to drive the ball.

Tucker's hard-hit rate, barrel rate and launch angle sweet-spot rates are all up this year, both on a per-batted ball and in particular on a per-swing basis, where he's posting career bests in each category:

• 18.8% of his swings have produced hard contact (exit velocity of 95 mph or higher)
• 16.2% of his swings have resulted in a ball hit in the launch angle sweet spot (8-32 degrees, the best line drives and fly balls)
• 5.9% of his swings have generated barrels, balls hit with the ideal exit velocity and launch angle to go for extra-base hits and home runs)

All those rank in the top tier of Major League hitters for 2024. So it's no surprise that Tucker's swing/take run value does, too.

Statcast's run value stat measures how much offensive value a hitter is creating for his team based on the result of every pitch he sees.

Thanks to those excellent swing decisions, Tucker's +25 runs created is tied for the highest batting run value of any MLB hitter in 2023, and five runs better than the next-closest American League hitter, Juan Soto.

Highest swing/take run value, 2024

• 1. (tie) Kyle Tucker: +25
• 1. (tie) Marcell Ozuna: +25
• 1. (tie) Alec Bohm: +25
• 4. Mookie Betts: +24
• 5. (tie) Shohei Ohtani: +20
• 5. (tie) Juan Soto: +20
• 5. (tie) Jurickson Profar: +20

Tucker is also the only hitter in the Majors with a run value of +10 or higher against both pitches in the heart of the zone and pitches in the chase zone -- a good representation of his formula of taking the pitches he can't slug, and belting the ones he can.

Only five hitters are that good in even one of those two regions. Tucker, Marcell Ozuna, Marcus Semien, Westburg and Isaac Paredes are great against pitches in the heart of the zone. Tucker, Soto, Betts, Stott and Witt are great against chase pitches.

Zeroing in on good strikes makes Tucker dangerous in any situation. For instance, look at how Tucker handles himself even when he gets behind in the count.

Tucker has a .304 batting average and .717 slugging percentage when behind in the count this season. The slugging, especially, stands out -- it's the best of the 243 hitters who've had at least 40 plate appearances decided in those situations. Five of Tucker's 17 homers have come while behind in the count, nearly as many as he has when he's ahead (seven).

The reason, again, is because Tucker keeps taking smart swings that let him make productive contact at any point throughout an at-bat.

Statcast's new bat tracking leaderboard shows you exactly that. When he's behind in the count, Tucker is one of the very best hitters at squaring up the baseball -- turning his bat speed into as much exit velocity as possible by hitting the ball on the sweet spot of the bat.

Highest squared-up rate when behind in the count, 2024

1. Luis Arraez: 45.1% of swings
2. Alex Verdugo: 42.3% of swings
3. Alex Bregman: 42.1% of swings
4. Kyle Tucker: 39.7% of swings
5. Mookie Betts: 39.2% of swings

Tucker doesn't just square up the baseball when behind. He blasts the baseball. That means squared-up contact combined with a high enough bat speed to do real damage -- hence the five homers. Tucker's among the top 10 hitters in blast rate per swing when behind in the count.

Highest blast rate when behind in the count, 2024

1. Shohei Ohtani: 24.6% of swings
2. Yandy Díaz: 23.5% of swings
3. Juan Soto: 23.1% of swings
4. Alec Bohm: 22.7% of swings
5. William Contreras: 22.4% of swings
6. Gunnar Henderson: 22.0% of swings
7. Bobby Witt Jr.: 21.9% of swings
8. Julio Rodríguez: 19.8% of swings
9. Aaron Judge: 19.7% of swings
10. Kyle Tucker: 19.0% of swings

Tucker's swing rates show you the plan. His quality-of-swing and quality-of-contact metrics show you the execution.

"I just try and get good pitches over the plate and try to barrel them up, and they just happen to fall for homers," Tucker said after his two-homer game against the Brewers on Sunday. "It’s not like I’m trying to lift the ball and start hitting them. It kind of comes with the pitch selection and trying to barrel balls to the outfield."