Patience or panic in 5 key areas

This story was excerpted from AJ Cassavell’s Padres Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

With a quarter of the season gone, there's no getting around it: The Padres haven't lived up to their lofty expectations.

There are myriad reasons behind the team’s early-season struggles, each with varying degrees of concern. So let's play a game I call “Patience or Panic?” What’s the level of concern in five key areas of the Padres' struggles?

HITTING WITH RISP

At some point, this has to turn. The Padres are currently at a historic low with men in scoring position. Their .198 RISP average is the lowest for any team in recorded history -- spanning at least 80 years’ worth of data.

I say this confidently: This group of hitters is too good for these issues to continue at their current level.

That doesn't mean there aren't overarching issues offensively. Projected to have one of the sport's best offenses, the Padres are currently a bottom-10 offense overall.

“These guys have performed well before, and they’re going to again,” manager Bob Melvin said after a weekend sweep in Los Angeles. “We have to remain in that mindset, get back home and regroup.”

Concern level: Medium

THE BULLPEN

One important caveat for the bullpen's struggles: Because of the offense's underperformance, this relief corps has been taxed. When every game is low scoring, the margin for error is thin, and the same high-leverage guys get used a lot.

"Offensively, we need to take the pressure off these guys coming in the game late to have to be perfect," Melvin said. “You give up a run, two runs -- that's going to happen every now and then. But when it costs you the game ... that's what stands out."

The Padres’ bullpen is better than recent results would indicate. But it's still nowhere near the level it reached last October. This group sorely misses set-up man Robert Suarez, who signed a five-year contract during the offseason but has yet to resume throwing as he deals with elbow trouble. Meanwhile, Drew Pomeranz's path toward a return continues to hit snags, while Adrian Morejon and Nabil Crismatt remain injured as well.

The good news? Nick Martinez, Tim Hill and Steven Wilson have admirably filled the void. Josh Hader remains dominant. Plus, if the current question marks persist, the Padres can remedy them at the Trade Deadline.

Concern level: Low to medium

THE CATCHING SITUATION

The most glaring flaw on the Padres' roster entering the season -- and it’s been worse than expected. Luis Campusano underwent surgery to repair a ligament in his left thumb on Friday. The Padres were banking on a breakthrough season for Campusano. Now he’s out until sometime around the All-Star break.

Meanwhile, Austin Nola has struggled mightily, with a .460 OPS. He’s ceded some playing time to Brett Sullivan, a 29-year-old journeyman, who is almost certainly not the long-term fix. Beyond those two, the depth is thin.

That leaves the Padres with a glaring need behind the plate. Among other efforts, they made a push to sign Christian Vázquez and trade for Sean Murphy during the offseason, according to sources, but nothing came to fruition. Now, the Padres head into trade season with a major need -- and no obvious available answers.

Concern level: High

MANNY MACHADO

Machado’s tenure in San Diego has been defined by his reliability. Through countless Padres ups and downs, Machado has been a steady presence. It’s why they were so confident in giving him an 11-year extension.

This season, however, he’s hitting just .232/.280/.374 in 39 games. There are other players off to slow starts -- notably Jake Cronenworth, Ha-Seong Kim and Nola. But it’s Machado in the middle of this lineup, expected to provide more thump than what he’s provided.

“At the end of the year, things will be a little bit different,” Machado said. “We’ve just got to keep fighting through it. … Things will turn.”

Here’s guessing Machado figures it out. He has a long track record, and the quality of his contact has been better lately. In the meantime, he’ll continue playing Gold Glove-caliber defense.

Concern level: Low

THE PLAYOFF RACE

The Padres aren’t the only team off to a slow start. Far from it. A number of presumed contenders have struggled over the season’s first month and a half. The Padres’ predicament is nowhere near as dire as what the Cardinals are facing. The Phillies and Mets have struggled as well. San Diego’s slow start has hardly damaged its playoff ambitions.

But this team wasn’t built merely to reach the playoffs. This team was built to contend for a division title, an NL pennant and the franchise’s first World Series title. Accomplishing the first of those goals would give the Padres the best path toward accomplishing the other two.

Yet the NL West gap has already grown to seven games. In one regard, the Padres have plenty of time to put themselves in position for an October run. In another, they’re already facing an uphill climb this summer.

Concern level: Medium