Bad luck bites Gausman again in series finale loss

TORONTO -- Timing is everything at this point in the season, and this week in Toronto, the Blue Jays’ has been off.

With Sunday’s 7-2 loss to the Guardians, the Blue Jays have dropped four of their last five, including two to the Orioles. While the Guardians hold a small lead in the AL Central over the Twins, it’s likely that both clubs will be involved in the Wild Card race down the stretch -- a race that is growing tighter by the day.

The Blue Jays were simply outpitched Sunday, but in a star-studded matchup between Kevin Gausman and Shane Bieber, it had to happen to someone. Gausman deserved better, but he allowed five runs over just 4 2/3 innings, an oddly inefficient outing for the right-hander who’s been one of baseball’s best in 2022.

He had no room for error, though, as the Blue Jays’ offense scraped together just two runs. Coming off a 2-1 win and 8-0 loss in the series, that’s just four total runs over the weekend set. Based on the names in their lineup, the Blue Jays should be putting up four-run innings, not a four-run series.

The Blue Jays were simply outpitched Sunday, but in a star-studded matchup between Kevin Gausman and Shane Bieber, it had to happen to someone. Gausman deserved better, but he allowed five runs over just 4 2/3 innings, an oddly inefficient outing for the right-hander who’s been one of baseball’s best in 2022.

He had no room for error, though, as the Blue Jays’ offense scraped together just two runs. Coming off a 2-1 win and 8-0 loss in the series, that’s just four total runs over the weekend set. Based on the names in their lineup, the Blue Jays should be putting up four-run innings, not a four-run series.

With the Orioles and Yankees looming, here’s what you can take away from a lost series:

Trouble at the top
Sunday’s loss dropped the Blue Jays to 30-40 this season against teams .500 or better. Teams in the postseason tend to be, well, .500 or better.

Of all the broad-stroke trends, this is among the most worrying for the Blue Jays. Their success through July and into August was aided by beating up on some weaker clubs, which they’ll still need to do, but Toronto needs to raise its level of play against the league’s best.

For some context here, the teams at the top are handling winning teams far better. Entering Sunday, the Dodgers were 26-14 against teams with winning records, the Yankees were 41-31, the Astros were 32-17 and the Mets were 32-23. The teams Toronto faces in a potential Wild Card matchup won’t be of that tier, but when you consider the Blue Jays’ roster and their competitive window, this club needs to be measured against the best of the best, not just postseason teams in general.

Kevin Gausman vs. bad breaks
It’s the matchup of the season. Early on, this seemed coincidental, but Gausman’s stretch of poor luck has carried through the season at a bizarre rate. Sunday wasn’t Gausman’s sharpest outing by any stretch, but he deserves an even lower ERA than the 3.16 next to his name.

“It’s baseball,” Gausman said. “Once the pitch leaves your hand, you can’t determine the outcome a lot of the time. It’s frustrating at times, but that’s the way it goes. You just have to realize it’s going to change at some point. I’ve had a lot of bad luck this year, but at some point it will turn.”

Outfield shifts have burned Gausman often, but Sunday, some errors behind him cost the right-hander. In the fourth, Austin Hedges hit a soft fly ball down the right-field line that should have been the second out. Instead, Cavan Biggio misplayed it, allowing the ball to drop just inside the line for an RBI double.

Biggio redeemed himself later on, making a sliding catch near the line and slamming into the wall for the play of the game. Entering Sunday, though, Gausman had allowed an opponent BABIP of .367, far higher than his career average (.313). That number has been under .300 each of the last two seasons, when luck was far kinder to Gausman.

Bullpen strength is overshadowed

Prior to Trent Thornton allowing a pair of runs in the ninth, the Blue Jays’ bullpen had put together 13 1/3 straight scoreless innings. Those innings were mostly pitched by the core arms the Blue Jays will lean on down the stretch and into October.

“We’ve asked a lot of them, especially this series, and they’ve definitely answered the bell,” said manager John Schneider. “It’s been really cool knowing that we have that safety net. They’ve been outstanding. Every single one of them has.”

The Blue Jays didn’t add the high-strikeout arm that many expected at the Trade Deadline, but the current group deserves credit for a rock-solid stretch. Given the inconsistencies lately from José Berríos and Yusei Kikuchi, they’re going to need more of it. Help should come soon, too, as the return of Ross Stripling could bump Mitch White back into a long-relief role, which would have been helpful this weekend.