Hayes heading into '23: 'I just want to improve'

BRADENTON, Fla. -- The Matthew effect describes the idea of accumulated advantage. In sum, people or entities who already possess an advantage will have more opportunities to accrue even more advantages. Put simply, the rich get richer.

This past winter, Ke'Bryan Hayes may have found himself on the wrong end of the Matthew effect.

Hayes appeared primed to add some accolades to his résumé last offseason. He led all defenders in defensive runs saved (24) and defensive WAR (3.0). He led third basemen in Outs Above Average (18) and Def (16.7). Hayes missed out on Gold and Platinum Gloves in ’21 due to injuries, but ’22 appeared to be his year. Instead, he walked away empty-handed.

Nolan Arenado won not only his 10th consecutive Gold Glove at third base, but his sixth consecutive Platinum Glove. He also reclaimed the Fielding Bible Award at third base, the award that Hayes won in 2021.

“All I can do is play to the best of my ability, help my team win games,” Hayes said. “I’m not really worried about individual award stuff. I want to get to the playoffs, eventually play in a World Series. All that other stuff just comes with it.”

Hayes, playing the role of a diplomat, said he hasn’t thought about the snub since the results were announced. He emphasized that what’s done is done, and all he can do now is focus on the upcoming season. His manager, by contrast, expressed his discontent.

“Disappointed. Frustrated. I think he should have won it,” said Derek Shelton. “If you look at some of the metrics, he led third basemen in that.

“I realize and respect that Nolan won it. He’s won it many years. He’s an elite third baseman. Probably one of the best I’ve ever watched. I thought Key’s last year -- and I’m always going to defend our own guy -- was a situation where he should have won it. Maybe I can start the campaign for the ’23 season now.”

For his part, Hayes didn’t allow the results of the voting to affect his offseason. Hayes, who trimmed his blowout taper fade in favor of a buzz cut, became the first Pirate to uphold a Spring Training tradition, saying that he’s added about 10 to 15 pounds. His goal was to get back into the 210-pound range, which is where he was during his time in the Minor Leagues.

Along with the bulk, Hayes is once again healthy. Hayes revealed after Pittsburgh’s penultimate game last season that he had been dealing with a back issue for the entire year. He still managed to play a career-high 136 games, but felt the effects of the injury throughout the course of the season. To ensure he remains healthy, Hayes has learned more about the minutiae of lifting, eschewing heavier weights in favor of better form and constantly communicating with trainer Rafael Freitas.

“I kind of went to more of a one-on-one coaching in the weight room type of thing,” Hayes said. “That way, every rep is being watched to a T. … I wasn’t having to lift a whole bunch of crazy weight, but just doing it the right way, the right form is the same thing.”

With muscle gained and health regained, the hope around Pittsburgh is that Hayes can take a step forward on offense.

While Hayes is a phenomenal defender and excellent baserunner (30 career steals on 36 attempts), he has been a below-average hitter by OPS+ and wRC+ over the last two seasons. The potential for a great offensive season, however, is clear.

Hayes damaged his fair share of baseballs in ’22. He ranked in 85th percentile of Average Exit Velocity and 84th percentile of hard-hit rate. While he did hit the ball hard, there were some shortcomings. First, Hayes’ average launch angle (5.2 degrees) was well below league average (12.7 degrees), which resulted in a lot of hard-hit balls going straight into the ground. Second, Hayes might be pushing the ball too much; since 2020, his 25.7% pull rate ranks 159th out of 160 players with at least 1,000 plate appearances.

Should Hayes take a step forward on offense, he’ll evolve from one of baseball’s best defensive third basemen to one of baseball’s best third basemen, period.

“I want to be an all-around player,” Hayes said. “I want to hit better and be able to steal bases -- I want to steal even more bases, if I can, this year. I just want to improve every year in all facets of my game.”