Profar atop lineup a double-edged sword

SAN DIEGO -- These two things can be true at once:

The Padres' recent decision to move Jurickson Profar into the leadoff spot was entirely sensible. Through the season's first month, Profar has been their best on-base threat and their best hitter. Plus, his switch-hitting and his pesky at-bats play well at the top.

The fact that, a month into the 2024 season, it’s Profar who has emerged as the clear best option for the top spot in the San Diego lineup -- that’s sort of a problem.

It’s no knock on Profar, who has been outstanding, hitting .301 with an .887 OPS. But when the Padres signed him to a $1 million contract this spring, they envisioned a part-time role on an offense loaded with All-Stars. Profar's current standing as the most potent threat in the lineup probably says more about the rest of that lineup than it does about Profar.

The Padres’ 5-2 loss to the Reds on Monday night at Petco Park -- San Diego’s fifth straight defeat -- offered another example. On the Padres’ first swing of the night, Profar blasted a majestic leadoff home run, the team's first of the season. He carried his bat 90% of the way down the first-base line, then spun it and gestured excitedly into the home dugout.

From there, the Padres did not record another hit until there were two outs in the ninth. Despite mounting a late rally that brought the tying run to the plate, it was a poor offensive showing. To be fair, plenty of credit goes to Reds starter Nick Lodolo, who kept the Padres off-balance for seven innings.

“That guy is good, too,” Profar said. “He has a lead, and he’s really good. It’s not easy. He’s a left-handed pitcher, slinging … it’s tough.”

Profar authored by far the best at-bats against Lodolo. He took the Reds’ southpaw deep in the first inning and flied to the warning track in the sixth. The rest of the offense sputtered. Lodolo fanned 11 and retired the last 18 batters he faced.

Had Jake Cronenworth not roped a two-out double in the ninth, the Padres could’ve made an unwanted bit of franchise history. They’ve never before had a leadoff home run serve as their only hit.

“We’ve had a pretty good offense all year,” Cronenworth said. “We’ve made a lot of hard contact and had some really good at-bats. I think the approach we’ve been taking has been pretty good. Tonight, it just didn’t work.”

He’s not wrong. On the whole, the Padres’ offense has been solid. It entered play Monday ranked 10th in the Majors in runs per game (4.81), eighth in wRC+ (108), eighth in on-base percentage (.324) and 11th in slugging (.400).

The biggest cause of the team’s recent downturn has been its pitching, which has consistently asked that offense to play from behind. On Monday, it was Matt Waldron, who allowed all four of his runs in the first three innings before settling in to complete six.

Still, there are concerning offensive trends in San Diego, most notably the performance of the team’s stars. In the aftermath of the trade that sent Juan Soto to the Yankees, the Padres preached a collective effort from their biggest bats to pick up the slack. But their four best returning hitters -- Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, Ha-Seong Kim and Fernando Tatis Jr. -- have thus far underperformed.

With Tatis entrenched in the No. 2 spot, Bogaerts and Kim are the most obvious candidates to lead off. But Bogaerts, who had spent nearly the entire season there, is reaching base at a .285 clip. Kim, with a .326 OBP, has been better, but not leadoff-worthy.

For the series finale on Sunday against Philadelphia, Padres manager Mike Shildt inserted Profar into the top spot for the first time. The Padres were facing a right-hander in Taijuan Walker. Plus, Profar had crushed Walker in the past. And, sure enough, he proceeded to reach base three times.

In the aftermath, the unspoken question was whether Profar’s standing atop the lineup would stick. The answer came a day later on Shildt’s lineup card. The Padres were facing a left-hander, and Profar was back at the top.

“He’s been our best hitter so far this year,” Tatis said Sunday when asked about hitting behind Profar. “We’re all trying to make the right adjustments, and he showed up as a leadoff hitter and did a great job.”

Indeed, Profar has been the Padres’ best hitter this season. That’s simultaneously a credit to Profar and an apt summary of some of this offense’s biggest concerns.