Profar's bunt an inflection point in tight loss to Cards

ST. LOUIS -- Eight days ago, with the Padres trailing and Jurickson Profar at the plate as the go-ahead run, Profar did something wholly unexpected: He squared to bunt.

The pitch was well outside, and Profar took it. With a newfound advantage in the count, he changed his approach. A pitch later, he hit a three-run homer, sending the Padres to a frenzied, come-from-behind victory over the Twins at Petco Park.

Afterward, Profar would express extreme confidence that -- even though he had homered later in the at-bat -- his decision to open the count with a bunt attempt was the right call. It was simply what the game called for, and Profar loves to improvise. A day later, Padres manager Mike Shildt was vehement in his belief that Profar deserved the space to do so.

Cut to Wednesday night at Busch Stadium -- a 4-3 Padres loss to the Cardinals. Profar came to the plate in the top of the ninth inning of a tie game with the go-ahead run on second base.

This time, he got the bunt down.

Luis Arraez had opened the inning with a double against All-Star closer Ryan Helsley. When Profar came to the plate, there was no sign from any coach calling for a bunt. There were also no instructions not to bunt.

“We give Pro the option,” said Shildt. “I trust him. And he trusts his teammates. It doesn’t always work out. But, man, I trust him completely in that at-bat in making his decision and [his] feel for the game.”

To be sure, the choice wasn’t an obvious one. Profar’s successful sacrifice, which required an excellent play from Helsley, raised the Padres’ win probability by a percentage point -- from 67 to 68%. The Padres had Jake Cronenworth and Manny Machado due up, needing only to advance pinch-runner Tyler Wade 90 feet.

But that win-probability number excludes two things:

1. It doesn’t factor the risk of the bunt in the first place and the possibility that Profar wouldn’t get it down.

2. It doesn’t factor the quality of the hitter at the plate.

The second part is where the decision gets interesting. Profar is an All-Star. He’s been one of the best hitters in the Majors this year -- and he’s been especially productive in high-leverage situations. He’s the type of guy you’d want hitting with the game on the line.

Then again, Profar didn’t look himself on Wednesday (and, really, aside from his dramatic game-tying homer against the Mets on Sunday, he hasn’t looked himself for the past week). That factored into his thinking at the plate in the ninth inning.

“You didn’t see my at-bats tonight?” Profar asked rhetorically. “I was 0-for-4.”

If he were feeling better at the plate, perhaps he makes a different decision. As it was, he dropped the bunt down, putting the burden on Cronenworth and Machado to get the run home. Both struck out.

“I’m just playing the game,” Profar said. “Croney, he’ll bring that run in most of the time. Sometimes, it doesn’t work. We lose some, we win some. I bet you we win more than we lose.”

Hard to argue, given the recent results. The Padres have gone 26-10 since the All-Star break, as they’ve thrust themselves squarely into the postseason mix. But they’re chasing a division title, too, and the NL West race currently features three of the hottest teams in baseball.

That race might very well swing on a game or two. Which meant, as well as the Padres have played lately, this was still a tough loss to swallow.

In the bottom of the ninth, closer Robert Suarez recorded two outs, before St. Louis won the game with three singles, including Nolan Arenado’s walk-off.

It was a bitter ending after six quality frames from Joe Musgrove, then a game-tying homer from Kyle Higashioka in the eighth. Higashioka’s blast marked the 17th that the Padres have hit in the eighth inning or later to either tie the game or take the lead. No other team has more than 12.

“Higgy hits that blast, and it was kind of a shot of life,” Musgrove said. “But Helsley’s one of the best in the league. Really tough stuff. We put ourselves in a situation to get a chance to score and just didn’t come out with it. Not much to hang our heads for.”

And nobody was.

“We just lost tonight,” said Profar. “We just lost. We’re going to come back tomorrow and win the series.”