Which Soto scenario keeps superstar in SD?

NASHVILLE, Tenn. -- Juan Soto is the biggest name on the trade market this winter. By far. He's a generational offensive talent in his prime, widely considered as likely to be traded from a Padres team that desperately needs pitching and could use a measure of longer-term security than the one year before Soto hits free agency.

At the MLB Winter Meetings this week, it has been spoken about as something of a foregone conclusion -- no longer a matter of "if" Soto will be dealt but rather "when" and "to whom?"

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But what if that's not the case?

As the Winter Meetings opened at the Gaylord Opryland Resort and Convention Center, Padres general manager A.J. Preller acknowledged publicly for the first time that he's listening on offers for Soto. But he couched it.

"We listen to anything in terms of what we need to do to get our team better," Preller said on Monday. "No real update. Nothing really new today on [the Soto] front. Still kind of going through a bunch of different paths and a bunch of different ways we can go with this as we try to build a roster and get better for next year."

Which raises two seemingly contradictory questions at the center of the Soto saga:

• How can the Padres possibly get better if they were to trade a player like Soto?
• How can the Padres possibly get better without trading Soto to help address the deficiencies on their roster, particularly in the rotation?

"Having Juan's bat in the lineup, obviously he's incredibly impactful, and he's a great player," Preller said. "There's a lot of different ways to win games. From our standpoint, a lot of them have Juan Soto in our lineup."

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Does that mean that -- after all the rumors and speculation -- there's a possibility Soto could be the Padres' Opening Day left fielder in 2024?

"A hundred percent," Preller said. "That's a very attractive option for us: Juan hitting in the 2 or 3 hole Opening Day."

It still feels like the less likely outcome. The Padres' need for pitching is dire. They've seen Blake Snell, Josh Hader, Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, Nick Martinez, Tim Hill, Scott Barlow and Luis García depart. As things stand, the San Diego rotation consists of Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and a bunch of question marks. It also seems unlikely that the Padres would splurge to land the pitching they need.

Which brings it all back to Soto. In a theoretical trade, the Padres would clearly be looking for MLB-caliber pitching. Nearly every rumored landing spot -- including the Yankees, the most prominent -- has the types of affordable, controllable arms that the Padres should be seeking in a Soto deal.

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Then again, Preller insists there are paths to acquire that type of pitching without trading Soto. Maybe it’s bluster. Maybe it’s a negotiating tactic. But he cited the team's signings of Lugo and Wacha last offseason as the types of buy-low plays the team could look to recreate this winter.

"You've got to find opportunity," Preller said. "Both on the trade and free agent market. There's other players on our team, too, that teams have checked in on from a [trade] standpoint. Some of the conversations we're having, that would enable us to get to some pitching that way.

"And then, through our system. Some of our younger group that got to Double-A last year, stepping in, I think we feel that group has a chance to pitch for us this year. ... It's going to be a combination effort -- trade, free agency, some internal promotion. It's a very competitive market for pitching."

That last part is key to all this. The pitching market is extremely competitive. The Padres’ clearest path to landing the pitching they need involves a Soto trade.

Then again, that would leave them without Soto in the middle of their order.

So where does that contradiction put the state of trade negotiations as the first full day of the Winter Meetings wrapped up in Nashville?

"We're definitely getting a lot of calls," Preller said. "You're talking about a top-10 player in the game of baseball, one of the biggest offensive forces in the game. ... Teams have interest. We understand that. The last week, 10 days, we've gotten a bunch of calls on Juan."