Breaking down Naylor's leaps at the dish

This story was excerpted from Mandy Bell’s Guardians Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

CLEVELAND -- There’s a reason Josh Naylor was the choice for the Bob Feller Man of the Year by the Cleveland chapter of the Baseball Writers' Association of America at the end of last season.

We’ve all become so accustomed to José Ramírez stealing the offensive spotlight. Although Ramírez was as advertised yet again in 2023, it was Naylor’s surprising surge that caught everyone’s attention. He hit .308 with an .843 OPS, 17 homers and 97 RBIs in 121 games. He was as reliable as anyone in Cleveland’s lineup last year and the team needs him to repeat it in ’24 to improve on its disappointing '23 season.

Somehow, despite how high of a bar he set for himself, Naylor is showing he might be even better this year.

Naylor has now reached base safely in 15 consecutive games, hitting .346 with a 1.092 OPS, five homers and 15 RBIs in that span. We’re hardly even an eighth of the way through the season, so there’s no way to predict if this level of production will be sustainable, but three metrics provide optimism that it could be.

Let’s take a look.

1. No trouble against the lefties
Just two years ago, the conversation surrounding Naylor was whether he’d be able to one day prove he could be more than a platoon guy at first base. Since then, his numbers against left-handed pitching have only gotten better:

2022: 110 at-bats, .173 average, .512 OPS, four doubles, one homer, 11 RBIs
2023: 137 at-bats, .299 average, .821 OPS, nine doubles, five homers, 22 RBIs
2024: 21 at-bats, .381 average, 1.245 OPS, three doubles, two homers, seven RBIs

“I think you just have to credit, he put in a ton of work this winter hitting lefty spin, hitting lefty angle and he continues to do that,” Guardians manager Stephen Vogt said. “I think he takes pride in playing every day, versus left, versus right. And this guy can just hit -- flat out hit. So it's a credit to him and the work he's put in, but also just his tenacity and focus. And man, he loves a big moment and he comes through for us. It's awesome.”

It seems safe to say at this point: Naylor isn’t a platoon guy.

2. Better contact
Again, it’s early, but Naylor has been barreling balls up more frequently than we’ve seen him in the past. Entering tonight’s game against the Red Sox, he owns a 12.5% barrel percentage (which ranks in the 83rd percentile). With barrels come higher exit velocities; therefore, a better probability of winding up with a hit.

Naylor's quality of contact is showing in his results. While his ground-ball percentage has been similar (right around 43%), Naylor has turned many of his fly balls from last year into line drives. In 2023, 25.6% of his batted balls were fly balls. This year, that’s dropped to 18.1%. Meanwhile, his line-drive rate has jumped from 23.8% last year to 30.6%.

3. The chase is down
Naylor’s chase rate was his kryptonite last season. He ranked in the fourth percentile in chase percentage (39.5%). But through the first 22 games, he lowered that to 27.9%, which ranks in the 43rd percentile.

The slightest of improvements when it comes to patience at the plate can make a tremendous difference for a hitter, and we’re seeing Naylor reap the benefits so far. Entering Wednesday, he has swung at 84% of pitches in the strike zone. In 2023, that number was 76.3%. When he’s swinging at good pitches, he’s doing damage. But when Naylor is able to lay off the junk, he’s getting on base more frequently by drawing more walks (as much as it pains him to not get a chance to hit his way on base). Last year, his walk rate was in the 28th percentile at 6.7%. This year, it's in the 48th percentile at 8.6%.

There’s no way to know if this is sustainable. There’s no crystal ball to tell us if Naylor is going to continue to get better. But the foundation is there and he’s proving it’s possible.

“You can’t say enough about the quality of at-bat that Nayls puts together,” Vogt said. “That’s why I said he’s not a power hitter, he’s a hitter with power. I think he doesn’t punch out at an enormous rate. He’ll take his walks. He takes what the pitchers give him. He hits to the situation with the threat of if you make a mistake, you’re not getting the ball back. Those are the most dangerous hitters you can have.”