Berríos' puzzling downturn furthered by six-walk start

TORONTO -- José Berríos’ season took a wrong turn nearly three months ago, and he’s still trying to get back to the highway.

Berríos was brilliant through April. He laid the foundation for what felt like a career year, perhaps even a run at some AL Cy Young Award votes if everything bounced his way. That hasn’t happened, though, and in Tuesday night’s 4-2 loss to the Rays, Berríos tied a career high with six walks.

“I was so frustrated with myself for a lot of walks tonight,” Berríos said. “I was trying to throw strikes like I’m able to, but I will learn from this. Hopefully this is the last time I throw [six] walks in a game. I’ll flush this and turn the page.”

Much like Berríos’ struggles in 2022, there was nothing blatantly wild or messy about Tuesday's performance, but everything was just a bit off. Berríos was fortunate the damage wasn’t worse, too, after a pair of fly balls that dragged Daulton Varsho back to the warning track to save the day. But Brandon Lowe finally got to him with a two-run homer to right field in the fifth.

It was the 22nd home run Berríos has allowed in 2024. No pitcher in MLB has allowed more.

Berríos in March/April (7 starts)
43 2/3 IP
1.44 ERA
4 HR allowed

Berríos since May 1 (14 starts)
80 IP
5.51 ERA
18 HR allowed

“I’ve been trying so hard to be the same José I was in the beginning of the season,” Berríos said. “I’m trying to look at videos, trying to do the same routine, recovery, weight room, playing catch. That’s what it’s like in baseball. One thing I know is that I have to make adjustments, and I will do it.”

This has all been so unexpected from Berríos, even with that 5.23 ERA from 2022 still fresh in many minds. It’s happened almost subtly, though his final outing before the All-Star break in San Francisco, in which Berríos allowed four walks with zero strikeouts, raised some eyebrows.

There have been no sirens wailing in the distance warning of the worries that may come. Berríos’ velocity hasn’t plummeted. His delivery doesn’t look drastically different. He’s not throwing underhand. Something is just a bit off, and even for someone with the reputation as “La Makina,” workload can be a factor.

Since 2018, which was Berríos’ third season in the big leagues but the first one he spent fully in the Majors, only one pitcher -- Aaron Nola -- has thrown more innings than Berríos (1,133 IP). Excluding the shortened '20 season, Berríos has thrown at least 172 innings in each of those seasons and is on pace to chase 180-plus again in '24.

“I don’t think fatigue is a factor with him, really ever, given the way he takes care of himself,” manager John Schneider said. “He looked fresher, for sure. There’s always two sides to it. Is it too much of a layoff or is it good for him? We erred on the side of giving him a bit of a breather [after the All-Star break]. It wasn’t fatigue. I don’t think it ever is [with Berríos]. I’m confident he’ll be back on track his next time through.”

If anything, Berríos has felt his upper half flying open too soon. That’s his left shoulder, closest to home, opening up his chest and hips too quickly. Even the slightest hiccup in that sequence can wreak havoc on the rest.

The final two months of Berríos' season, like for the rest of this organization, will be mostly focused on setting himself up for 2025 and beyond. Berríos is under club control for at least two more years, then he has a player option following the '26 season. If he chooses to stay with the Blue Jays, that adds two more years to the deal, keeping him in Toronto through the end of '28.

Berríos is 30, but given his contract, he has the potential to be a long-term rotation fixture, leading the Blue Jays’ starters not only through a cloudy transition period over the next year, but into whatever lies beyond that. If this organization finds itself rebuilding around younger talent, Berríos is the model starter they should want their prospects following when you consider his full career.

For now, though, there’s only frustration. This season isn’t going how anyone hoped, and for Berríos, it’s gone down a very different road than the one he was on in April.