Musgrove flying under the radar ahead of free agency

Jacob deGrom will likely be the crown jewel of next offseason’s free agent starting pitcher class, should the two-time National League Cy Young Award winner opt out of the final year of his contract with the Mets, as expected.

Noah Syndergaard, Mike Clevinger, Sean Manaea, Nathan Eovaldi and Carlos Rodón (assuming he opts out of his deal with the Giants) will also draw their share of attention from pitching-hungry clubs.

One pitcher who doesn’t seem to draw much attention is a guy who might be pitching as well as anybody in the Major Leagues, and who will also be a free agent at the end of the season.

So why doesn’t Joe Musgrove get the same love as the aforementioned pitchers?

“I think it’s because he’s been building into being this type of pitcher for a long time, as opposed to it happening very early in his career,” one American League executive said. “He was traded and then was good, but not this good in Pittsburgh. Now he’s gone full-fledged ace with top-of-the-scale command.”

Musgrove, who starts Sunday in the Padres’ series finale with the Marlins, is off to a phenomenal start, going 4-0 with a 1.97 ERA in his first five starts. The right-hander has struck out 33 batters in 32 innings, posting a minuscule 0.91 WHIP and a 16.5-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Despite an average-at-best fastball (92.1 mph) that ranks in just the 22nd percentile this season, Musgrove’s stuff continues to baffle hitters thanks to his impressive spin rate, which ranks in the 97th percentile in the game for fastballs and 80th percentile for curveballs. Musgrove’s chase rate ranks in the top 10 percent of all pitchers, while his 1.6% walk rate is in the 98th percentile this season.

Musgrove made headlines on April 9 last year with his no-hitter against the Rangers, the first no-no in San Diego history. That gem proved to be just the start of an impressive season for Musgrove, who posted a career-low 3.18 ERA in a career-high 181 1/3 innings. He also produced a career-low 1.08 WHIP while matching his personal best with 11 victories.

Aside from Rodón, Musgrove is outpitching all of his fellow pending free agents this season, potentially lining him up for a big payday six months from now.

“My sense is that Musgrove has started to be mentioned among the top starters -- the publicly available projections have him as a top-30 type starter -- but it’s really the consistent track record that he hasn’t yet established,” another AL executive said. “With another year like 2021 in terms of durability and peripheral performance -- which it seems like the path he’s on so far -- my expectation would be that he’d be in that conversation. If that happens, it’s not hard to see him trying to compare himself to guys like Marcus Stroman or Kevin Gausman in free agency.”

Gausman landed a five-year, $110 million deal with the Blue Jays this past winter, while Stroman signed a three-year, $71 million pact with the Cubs. Another executive added Robbie Ray’s five-year, $115 million deal with the Mariners as a potential comparison for Musgrove this offseason.

Musgrove earned $2.8 million with the Pirates in 2020, his first arbitration-eligible year. After posting a 3.86 ERA in eight starts during the pandemic-shortened season, he was traded to the Padres in January 2021, settling on a $4.45 million salary in his second year of arbitration.

Following his breakout 2021 season, Musgrove and the Padres settled on an $8.625 million salary for 2022, but given the start to his season, he’s in line to land a sizable multiyear deal when he hits free agency heading into his age-30 season. Ray, Gausman and Stroman all scored their respective deals heading into their age-31 seasons.

An AL general manager pointed to Musgrove’s pair of 3.3 fWAR seasons in 2019 and ’21 as proof of his consistency, though with a 1.1 fWAR already this season, he could far exceed that number in his walk year.

“He logged this first season unfortunately a bit under the radar pitching for Pittsburgh,” the GM said. “Now with the Padres, and after pitching a dramatic no-hitter, Musgrove has elevated his notoriety. With the recent success of Ray, Gausman and others, his age should not prevent him from landing a very lucrative contract if he continues on his current trajectory.”

Musgrove began his career with the Astros, who acquired him from the Blue Jays in 2012, just one year after Toronto selected him with the 46th overall pick in the MLB Draft. He made his debut in August 2016, pitching parts of two seasons with Houston before being dealt to the Pirates in January 2018 as part of the Gerrit Cole trade.

Although Musgrove pitched well in Pittsburgh, his performance went relatively unnoticed there, but that changed after he was traded to the Padres in January 2021, thrusting him into the spotlight with a San Diego team that drew national headlines. Still, with many of his outings taking place after much of the East Coast has gone to bed, Musgrove’s stellar start is still flying somewhat under the radar.

“The other thing is that until last year, he wasn’t a sexy starting pitcher; good numbers in terms of not allowing baserunners and runs, but the strikeouts weren’t there,” a National League executive said. “He took a big step last year in that area, which I think will get him more attention moving forward.”

With 203 strikeouts in 181 1/3 innings in 2021, Musgrove ranked 10th in the NL. His 33 Ks so far this season have him ranked 10th in the league, which the NL exec believes is making people take notice.

“If he can repeat a 200-plus strikeout season, his durability and performance will make him pretty popular [this offseason], I would imagine,” the exec said.