The numbers behind deGrom's dominant return

Jacob deGrom is a hitter's recurring nightmare -- he went 13 months without pitching in a Major League game and now he's the very same pitcher in 2022 that he was in 2021.

And if deGrom is the same, good luck hitting against the Mets in a playoff series, with deGrom and Max Scherzer starting Games 1 and 2.

With five starts under his belt, deGrom gets a big potential playoff preview on Wednesday: a marquee showdown against the MLB-best Dodgers at Citi Field. And the Dodgers are about to face Peak deGrom.

The Mets' ace has a 2.15 ERA, and he's already racked up 46 strikeouts in 29 1/3 innings, a 14.1 K/9. He's putting up the same type of numbers, deGrom numbers, that he was before injury ended his 2021 season. And the stuff behind those numbers is as elite as ever.

Here's how deGrom has picked up right where he left off.

With deGrom, you come for the velocity -- the 100 mph fastballs and 95 mph sliders. And he's lighting up the radar gun like he never missed a game.

deGrom's fastball-slider combo is probably the most overpowering two-pitch combo in baseball, which is why deGrom hasn't even really had to mix in his also overpowering changeup so far.

Over nine out of every 10 pitches deGrom is throwing this season are fastballs or sliders. And they're the same explosive fastballs and wipeout sliders that have made deGrom the most dominant pitcher in the world.

deGrom's fastball velocity

• 2021: 99.2 mph (26% thrown 100+ mph)
• 2022: 99.3 mph (27% thrown 100+ mph)

deGrom's slider velocity

• 2021: 91.6 mph (12% thrown 93+ mph)
• 2022: 93.0 mph (52% thrown 93+ mph)

He's throwing the fastest fastball among starting pitchers. His slider is the fastest secondary pitch among starting pitchers.

Highest fastball velocity, SP, 2022

Min. 100 4-seamers thrown

1. Jacob deGrom: 99.3 mph

2. Hunter Greene: 98.7 mph

3. Spencer Strider: 98.1 mph

4. Sandy Alcantara: 97.9 mph

5. Gerrit Cole: 97.8 mph

deGrom's 2021 rank: 1

Fastest secondary pitches, SP, 2022

Min. 100 thrown of that type

1. Jacob deGrom's slider: 93.0 mph

2. Edward Cabrera's changeup: 92.7 mph

3. Sandy Alcantara's changeup: 91.8 mph

4. Mitch Keller's changeup: 91.3 mph

5. Zack Wheeler's slider: 90.6 mph

deGrom's 2021 rank: 3 (but fastest slider)

As you might imagine, it's just as tough to hit 2022 deGrom as 2021 deGrom when he can still strike you out with a 101-plus mph fastball or a 95-plus mph slider -- even if you're an elite hitter.

Look at who he's dialed it up against.

deGrom's fastest K's by pitch type

2021: 101.4 mph 4-seam (Manny Machado) / 94.9 mph slider (Fernando Tatis Jr.)

2022: 101.6 mph 4-seam (Matt Olson) / 95.7 mph slider (Austin Riley)

No matter who you are, or which pitch he chooses of the two he's relying on (for now), you still can't hit deGrom.

deGrom's fastball results

• 2021: .158 BA / .303 SLG / 30% whiff rate / 35% strikeout rate
• 2022: .122 BA / .293 SLG / 31% whiff rate / 30% strikeout rate

deGrom's slider results

• 2021: .096 BA / .175 SLG / 58% whiff rate / 59% strikeout rate
• 2022: .148 BA / .167 SLG / 52% whiff rate / 56% strikeout rate

He's also attacking hitters in the same style. Check out where deGrom located his fastball and slider in 2021 vs. 2022.

It's the basic formula for deGrom's mastery: fastball away to right-handed hitters and up to left-handed hitter; sliders down-and-away to righties and down-and-in to lefties, the traditional hitter dead zones made all the more lethal by deGrom's overwhelming velocity.

Now, if you look at what deGrom is doing with his fastball-slider combo, one thing might jump off the page as different this season: the ratio of his fastball usage to slider usage. It's basically even.

deGrom's pitch usage, 2021 vs. 2022

• 2021: 57% 4-seam, 33% slider, 9% changeup, <1% curveball
• 2022: 48% 4-seam, 44% slider, 5% changeup, 3% curveball

You might see that and think, "Wow, deGrom is throwing a lot more sliders." From 2021 to '22, it's about a 10-point increase in slider usage, and a corresponding decrease in fastball usage.

But it's actually a continuation of what deGrom was doing over the course of last season. He started out the 2021 season throwing tons of fastballs. deGrom threw almost two-thirds fastballs in April, and over 70% fastballs in May. But during the summer, he went to the same even pitch mix between his fastball and slider that he's using right now.

deGrom's 4-seamer vs. slider usage by month

• April 2021: 63% fastballs / 26% sliders
• May 2021: 70% fastballs / 20% sliders
• June 2021: 49% fastballs / 44% sliders
• July 2021: 47% fastballs / 47% sliders
• August 2022: 48% fastballs / 44% sliders

That trend stays true across different situations, too. Here's a look at how deGrom's usage changes by the type of count, and by the time through the order. He's following the same patterns he did last summer.

deGrom's usage by count

June/July 2021

• Even: 53% fastballs / 37% sliders
• Behind: 51% fastballs / 46% sliders
• Ahead: 41% fastballs / 53% sliders
• 2 strikes: 34% fastballs / 59% sliders

August 2022

• Even: 55% fastballs / 36% sliders
• Behind: 54% fastballs / 42% sliders
• Ahead: 37% fastballs / 55% sliders
• 2 strikes: 30% fastballs / 65% sliders

deGrom's usage by time through order

June/July 2021

• 1st: 57% fastballs / 39% sliders
• 2nd: 43% fastballs / 47% sliders
• 3rd+: 39% fastballs / 53% sliders

August 2022

• 1st: 55% fastballs / 40% sliders
• 2nd: 42% fastballs / 45% sliders
• 3rd+: 42% fastballs / 55% sliders

So deGrom is really using his fastball-slider combo at the same frequency, and deploying each pitch in the same situations.

And what happens when he starts throwing his 93 mph changeup more than once every 20 pitches, especially to top left-handed hitters -- like, say, Freddie Freeman -- and that two-pitch combo becomes a three-pitch combo? Because that has to be coming.

When deGrom is healthy, he always seems to have more firepower. It's good to see him back at the top of his game -- and the game -- just in time for the playoff push.