Clutch knock a step in right direction for Paredes

CHICAGO -- After initially taking a look at the ball he hit to center field on Sunday afternoon, Cubs third baseman Isaac Paredes put his head down as he left the batter’s box. He did not get all of the first-inning cutter from Gerrit Cole, but this result went Paredes’ way.

Yankees center fielder Aaron Judge slowed his pursuit, and the ball dropped to the grass for a two-run single -- one that held up as the difference in a 2-1 victory for the North Siders at Wrigley Field. There is always hope that even a small victory like that hit can boost the confidence of a player mired in the kind of slump Paredes has experienced.

“Look, he’s a good hitter,” Cubs manager Craig Counsell said. “We haven’t seen it consistently so far, but days like that are always big days. And I think helping your team win always makes you feel good.”

The win for the Cubs -- powered by a strong start from Jameson Taillon, a string of defensive gems and stellar relief via Nate Pearson and Porter Hodge -- helped Chicago salvage a game in the three-game set against the Yankees. For Paredes specifically, his win-delivering single snapped an 0-for-14 drought in his previous five games.

The Cubs traded infielder Christopher Morel, reliever Hunter Bigge and a pitching prospect to the Rays two days before the July 30 Trade Deadline to bring the 25-year-old Paredes into the fold. The third baseman was an All-Star this year, and he grew into one of baseball’s top right-handed power hitters over the previous two campaigns.

So far, the Cubs have been waiting for Paredes’ performance to align with that track record.

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“We’re all well aware of how tough of an out he is and how good of a player he is,” said Taillon, who held the Yankees to one run over six innings. “When you’re new somewhere, there’s a lot that goes into it. It’s new, added pressure. You’re in a new environment. You’re around a new team.

“The middle of a new season -- I can’t even imagine. Working with new hitting coaches. Different game-planning systems. Analytics presented to you in a different way. I literally can’t imagine doing that in the middle of the year.”

Through his first 35 games with the Cubs, Paredes has hit just .167 with three homers and a .559 OPS. In reality, though, the third baseman’s offensive woes have stretched back to late May. After starting the season with a .308/.395/.512 slash line through May 22 (when his season OPS was last above .900), Paredes hit .179/.308/.331 in the 88 games leading up to Sunday.

Paredes had a 17.0% strikeout rate and 10.5% walk rate in that first stretch of games through May 22, followed by a 16.1% strikeout rate with a 12.5% walk rate in the next 88 games. Not only is there not a glaring difference there, but his K rate and BB rate on the season overall is in line with his past two years. Paredes’ contact rate numbers are in line with his past production, too.

So what has happened?

“It’s just been some timing stuff that he just kind of hasn’t been able to consistently feel good at,” Counsell said. “He’s doing a good job with his ball-strike stuff. That’s still there, but where he’s struggled is just kind of the consistent quality of contact that got him off to such a good start this year.”

To that end, Paredes’ average exit velocity has dropped to 84.7 mph overall this year (entering Sunday) after showings of 86.9 mph in 2023 and 87.4 mph in ‘22. In the process, his isolated power had dipped to .171 this season going into Sunday, in comparison to .238 in ‘23 and .230 in ‘22.

The timing issues can be spotted in his power numbers against fastballs.

Per Statcast, Paredes’ monthly slugging percentage off fastballs (all types) this year looks like this: .620 (March/April), .521 (May), .407 (June), .310 (July), .385 (August), and .143 (September, entering Sunday). He slugged .534 off fastballs in 2023 and had a .469 showing in ‘22.

With that in mind, Paredes’ two-run single coming off a 1-1 cutter from Cole that veered over the outside corner was a nice sight for the Cubs.

Paredes said he believes it comes down to mentality more than anything.

“The mindset that I go up to bat with, the mindset that I have over in the cage,” Paredes said via interpreter Fredy Quevedo Jr. “It just comes down to the plan, the execution of the plan, which I’m just not doing at this moment.”