Why Paredes is a perfect fit in Houston

Whenever a free agent signs with a new team or a player is traded, one of the immediate questions that comes to mind is: How will he fit in his new home ballpark? Will his new surroundings be an advantage for him at the plate, in the field or on the mound?

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There are few scenarios -- on paper, at least -- in which a player and a ballpark fit so well as the one that was created when the Astros and Cubs struck a deal to send Isaac Paredes to Houston as part of a package for slugging right fielder Kyle Tucker on Friday.

Paredes and the stadium which will soon be formerly known as Minute Maid Park -- beginning in 2025, the Astros’ home venue will be renamed Daikin Park -- couldn’t present a better marriage between hitter and ballpark. Here’s a look at why.

The Crawford Boxes beckon

Since the removal of Tal's Hill in center field, one of the most interesting features of Houston’s ballpark has been a section in left field known as the Crawford Boxes -- a nod to Crawford Street, which runs parallel to it outside the stadium.

The Crawford Boxes sit atop a 21-foot-high wall just 315 feet away from home plate down the left-field line, and they’ve been the destination for many home runs that would have been outs in other ballparks around the Majors since the venue opened in 2000.

Since Statcast began tracking in 2015, there have been 256 home runs hit at Minute Maid Park that were not either barreled or hit solidly, 83 more than at any other MLB stadium -- that differential can be tied largely to the Crawford Boxes.

Right-handed-hitting Astros stars like Jose Altuve and current free agent Alex Bregman have taken advantage of the Crawford Boxes in recent years -- though, as MLB.com’s Mike Petriello notes, that narrative is overblown when it comes to Bregman.

Paredes is the newest right-handed Astros hitter who will take aim at the short porch down the left-field line in Houston, and he's a great candidate to make the most of the opportunity.

Paredes pulls the ball in the air ... a lot

No hitter pulled the ball in the air more frequently than Paredes did in 2024. He's not one to hit the ball particularly hard, but he gets the loft he needs to give his drives to left field a chance to clear the wall.

Whereas Bregman, whom Paredes might replace at third base if the former signs elsewhere, ranked in the 96th percentile last season for squaring up the ball (33.8%), Paredes did so at a far lower rate (24.3%).

For Bregman, it results in homers that, as Petriello put it, “stay hit” and carry well beyond the wall in left field, not requiring help from the Crawford Boxes. Since his 6% career barrel rate doesn’t stand out and his home ballpark featured an inviting short porch in left, there is a deceptive notion that Bregman benefited greatly from “cheap” homers in Houston.

Paredes, however, stands to benefit much more from his new home park. His swing mechanics and quality of contact profile suggest that he can take maximum advantage of the Crawford Boxes.

With an average bat speed of 68.2 mph last season (bottom 7% among qualified hitters), a hard-hit rate of 27.1% (bottom 6%) and a barrel rate of 4.5% (bottom 15%), it stands to reason that Paredes will happily look to capitalize on whatever help his new home can offer.

Add to that the fact that all 72 of Paredes’ career homers were pulled, as well as his high launch angle sweet spot rate (37% last season, 79th percentile), and you have a recipe for maximizing the “Crawford Box effect.”

According to Statcast, Paredes would have added an extra seven home runs to his total of 19 last season if he had played all his games at Minute Maid Park.

A marriage made in Houston?

It remains to be seen how Paredes performs at Daikin Park next season when he steps into the batter's box for the Astros. It’s one thing to look at how a guy fits a venue on paper, and an entirely different thing to watch it all play out in reality.

But if you could build a hitter to take advantage of Houston’s Crawford Boxes in left, Paredes would be that guy.