9 players with a big walk-year opportunity

Manny Machado is officially off the list of potential 2023-24 free agents, with his new 11-year, $350 million deal in San Diego countering his plans to exercise an opt-out clause in his original contract.

That’s great news for Machado, for Padres fans and for what remains of a pending free agent class that already had been stretched thin -- especially on the position player side. This will be a steep drop-off from a 2022-23 class that was stacked with, among others, the reigning AL MVP Award winner and a group of star shortstops.

When it comes to bats, next offseason is set to feature two-way sensation Shohei Ohtani, whose potential free agency promises to be unlike any we’ve seen before. There are a few other relatively big names, such as Matt Chapman, Teoscar Hernández and Rhys Hoskins, each of whom offers a mixture of strong selling points and distinct downsides. Then there are the high-profile rebound candidates who just signed one-year deals (or deals with opt-outs after 2023) -- Cody Bellinger, Michael Conforto and Joey Gallo among them -- who certainly have the talent to launch themselves back to prominence by next winter.

But what about some other position players who could use a big contract year to push their way toward the top of a thin market, in the wake of Machado’s decision? Here are nine candidates:

Harrison Bader, CF, Yankees
Bader has a high floor, given his superb defense at a premium position. No outfielder can even approach his total of 57 Outs Above Average since 2018, and his 92nd-percentile sprint speed makes him a threat on the bases as well (17-for-20 in steals last year). But the question is whether Bader, entering his age-29 season, is a glove-first ballhawk or a true two-way contributor. The latter is hard to find but quite lucrative. (See Brandon Nimmo's eight-year, $162 million contract this offseason.) Bader won’t bring Nimmo’s long track record of on-base ability into free agency, but he does offer some pop to go with that speed, hitting 16 homers in 103 games in 2021 and five in nine games last postseason. Is that a sign of things to come in Bader’s first full season in the Bronx?

Lourdes Gurriel Jr., LF/DH, D-backs
While a solid contributor over five seasons in Toronto, the younger Gurriel brother never quite put it all together there. Last season, he batted .291, but his power fell off a cliff (just 14 barrels and five homers), and the Blue Jays sent him to the D-backs in the Daulton Varsho trade. (His new manager, Torey Lovullo, recently mentioned that Gurriel “fought through a hand injury last year that very few knew about.”) The 29-year-old now has a fresh start in the desert, and although Arizona’s outfield picture is crowded, it’s also quite left-handed. The right-handed Gurriel should get every opportunity for regular playing time, and combining his recent improvements in limiting strikeouts with the return of his 20-homer pop would make him an attractive bat next offseason.

Ian Happ, LF, Cubs
A top 10 Draft pick in 2015, Happ ascended to the Majors quickly but didn’t put together a complete season until ‘22, when he made his first All-Star team and produced 4.4 WAR (per Baseball-Reference) -- his first time cracking the 2.0 mark. That was in large part due to Happ settling in defensively in left field, where he started 142 games after previously bouncing around the infield and other outfield spots. Happ won his first Gold Glove Award and posted 13 Defensive Runs Saved in left, although Statcast’s Outs Above Average had him with a much more modest plus-2 there. Now the challenge is to repeat that success in his contract year, which would set up the switch-hitter well to hit free agency going into his age-29 season.

Kiké Hernández, SS/CF, Red Sox
Two huge questions loom over Hernández’s 2023 campaign. First, can he rediscover his form at the plate? The 31-year-old has been an above-average hitter at times in his career, including 2021 (108 OPS+, 20 homers), but he struggled mightily last year (75 OPS+, six homers), while missing more than two months with a hip flexor strain and other issues. Second, can he excel defensively as Boston’s primary shortstop in the absence of Trevor Story? Hernández’s versatility has been his calling card, and he’s been stellar for the Sox in center field over the past two seasons. Now the club is counting on him at a position where he has started a grand total of 64 MLB games spread across nine seasons. That makes 2023 something of a high-risk, high-reward year for Hernández, who has a shot to prove himself at another up-the-middle spot while bouncing back with the bat.

Adalberto Mondesi, INF, Red Sox
Nobody on this list has more to prove than Mondesi, who is now a year away from free agency despite having just 358 MLB games to his credit. (For context, fellow 2016 rookie shortstops Story and Dansby Swanson have both played in more than 800 games.) Mondesi has struggled to produce consistently and also dealt with a wave of injuries, including a torn ACL in his left knee that kept him out for all but 15 games last season. But there is still “top of the scale” talent and athleticism here, in the words of Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, who acquired Mondesi from the Royals in the wake of Story’s injury. When Mondesi played a career-high 102 games in 2019, he led the Majors with 10 triples and swiped 43 bases in 50 attempts. It’s fair to ask whether that breakout potential remains, but given Boston’s middle-infield situation, the opportunity is there for Mondesi to seize.

Amed Rosario, SS, Guardians
This past shortstop class featured Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Swanson. The next one promises nobody of that caliber. So it’s not difficult to imagine a scenario in which Rosario is the best shortstop available on the open market. While he has not yet emerged as a star after ranking as a consensus top 10 prospect prior to 2017, Rosario has been highly durable (tied for 13th in games played since ‘18) while ranking as at least a league-average hitter in each of the past three full seasons (excluding ‘20). The biggest issue here is Rosario’s defense, which could put his future as a shortstop in doubt. But if the 27-year-old can keep those questions at bay, next winter’s market will play right into his hands.

Jorge Soler, LF/DH, Marlins
What do you make of Soler at this point? He authored a long-awaited breakout in 2019 for Kansas City, leading the AL with 48 home runs, but struggled to follow up on that success until a 2021 Deadline deal to Atlanta, where he raked down the stretch and became a postseason hero. That propelled him to a two-year, $27 million deal in Miami, where Soler flopped in ‘22, hitting .207/.295/.400 before his campaign ended due to injury in late July. Now with a clean bill of health, Soler will look to ride that rollercoaster back to the top again. He has a player option for ‘24 that could pay him up to $13 million, depending on his plate appearance total, but if Soler gets that power swing clicking once more, the open market will be plenty tempting.

Gio Urshela, INF, Angels
With Machado off the board, Chapman is the clear No. 1 third baseman in next offseason’s class. But who could be the best of the rest? Josh Donaldson, Evan Longoria and Justin Turner are in their late 30s. Brian Anderson and Jeimer Candelario were just non-tendered and have a lot to prove. From that group, Urshela stands out -- assuming clubs still view him as a third baseman several months from now. Acquired by the Angels from the Twins via trade, Urshela figures to spell Anthony Rendon at the hot corner in 2023, while also playing around the infield. Some added versatility never hurts, though, and Urshela has been a quietly productive hitter since breaking out with the Yankees in 2019 (.290/.336/.463, for a 119 OPS+).

Jesse Winker, LF/DH, Brewers
For as miserable as Winker’s 2022 season in Seattle was, a return to his 2020-21 form (.292/.392/.552 with 36 homers in 164 games) could re-establish him as one of next offseason’s most exciting bats. He certainly has a compelling case as a rebound candidate, if he truly is past the knee and neck injuries that plagued him last year and led to offseason surgery. Winker’s trade from Seattle to Milwaukee not only returns him to the comfort of the NL Central -- where he played from 2017-21 with Cincinnati -- but also sets him up to hit in an environment much friendlier to left-handed batters. Winker’s lack of defensive value will hold down his ceiling as a free agent, but if he is back to mashing in 2023, he’ll have plenty of suitors.