Tribe's '21 outlook: 'We're gonna surprise you'

The Indians are once again the underdogs.

After the Tribe sat atop the American League Central from 2016-18, it fell to second place in the standings in 2019. And after another year of watching the Twins take home the division title in 2020, the Indians find themselves back where they were at the start of 2016, with many not expecting the club to find its way back to the top. But Cleveland is enjoying being a dark horse.

“I swear, we’re gonna surprise you,” Franmil Reyes said. “I swear. We have something special for you guys. Trust that.”

It’s going to be a tough task for the Tribe to secure a spot in the playoffs this year, competing against solid lineups on the Twins and the White Sox (even without Eloy Jiménez). Let’s take a look at how they could pull it off:

What needs to go right? The big bats need to deliver
The Tribe hopes to avoid yet another season of having elite pitching with little to no offense. The team brought in Eddie Rosario this offseason and acquired Reyes at the 2019 Trade Deadline to help bring some much-needed pop to the middle of the order. Reyes has done that in spurts for Cleveland over the last two years, but never consistently. If José Ramírez remains in his MVP-like form, and both Reyes and Rosario bring consistent power, the offense will be in much better shape. Plus, if César Hernández can be as steady as he was in the Tribe’s lineup in 2020 and Andrés Giménez continues to cruise right into the regular season hitting the way he did in Spring Training, maybe scoring more than two or three runs per night will be a little easier for the club this season.

Great unknown: Can the outfield be better than it was in 2020?
The Indians have struggled to receive offensive production from their outfielders over the last few years, but 2020 was a particularly challenging season for the outfield crew. They had the second-worst wRC+ (54), average (.194), on-base percentage (.270) and fWAR (-0.9), while recording the fewest RBIs (62) and homers (11) and the lowest slugging percentage (.300) in the Majors. While Rosario will be the everyday guy in left field, it’s nearly impossible to project what the expectations are in center. With Oscar Mercado and Bradley Zimmer starting the year in the Minors, Ben Gamel and Jordan Luplow will probably get most of the playing time in center. Will they -- and a full season of Josh Naylor in right field -- be able to boost the outfield production? The Indians certainly hope so.

The team MVP will be: Giménez
This may be a better fit for the “bold prediction” category, but Giménez may be the piece the Indians have been missing over the last few seasons. What we’ve seen from him at the plate in Spring Training is limited, and there’s no way to project what kind of season he’ll have based on the small sample size, but his defense, arm strength and speed all appear to be at the level the Tribe hoped they’d be. And his bat was far from disappointing throughout Cactus League play. Cleveland has been missing a much-needed spark in its lineup to help support its incredible rotation. Giménez has a chance to be that missing piece.

The team Cy Young will be: Shane Bieber
It’s hard to pick anyone other than Bieber for this category, although the Indians certainly have other candidates. Bieber had a breakout year in 2019 that was enough for his team to trust him to jump from No. 5 starter in ’19 to Opening Day starter in 2020. After winning his first AL Cy Young last year, Bieber spent the entire offseason at the Indians’ Spring Training facility in Arizona, working on improving his slider. If he can get his slider back into its 2019 form and pair it with his 2020 curveball, Bieber may have found a way to come back even better in 2021.

Bold prediction: Cleveland will have at least three starters toss 200 or more innings
In any other year, maybe this wouldn’t be considered bold, but after a season in which no starter in the Majors threw more than 84 innings, this would be a monumental feat for a club that’s going to rely heavily on its rotation. Bieber has done it before, throwing 214 1/3 frames in 2019, but neither Zach Plesac nor Aaron Civale has been a part of a full 162-game season. Civale tossed a career-high 74 innings in 2020, and Plesac reached 115 2/3 frames in 2019. Still, these three all have the potential to hit the 200-inning mark. If they do, it’ll be the first time since 1999 that Cleveland has three hurlers do so in the same season, as Dave Burba, Bartolo Colon and Charles Nagy were the last to accomplish the feat.