How speed could shake up October

It took 3.3 seconds for Dave Roberts to steal his permanent place in postseason lore.

Inserted as a pinch-runner for the Red Sox in the ninth inning of Game 4 of the 2004 American League Championship Series against the Yankees, Roberts swiped second base with Mariano Rivera on the mound to set up the tying run of what turned out to be a series-shifting victory for a curse-breaking Boston club.

Did that steal change Roberts’ life?

“Man, it did,” the Dodgers manager says. “I’ve lived the idea that, if you’re ready when called upon, the game will honor you.”

Roberts, though, is a rarity in modern postseason baseball. While we can cite seemingly endless examples of players rising to the October occasion with a big blast or a clutch knock, there haven’t been many stolen bases that altered the outcomes of baseball’s biggest games in a Wild Card era that happens to coincide with the sport becoming much more power-oriented.

Sure, we remember Roberts, and we pay homage to those brave heroes whose fast legs won us fast food via Taco Bell’s “Steal a Base, Steal a Taco” promotion.

But the steal has largely gone by the wayside in postseason play. There was actually one fewer stolen base in 40 postseason games last year (34) than there had been in only 14 postseason games in 1989 (35).

“The stolen base hasn’t been a popular play in the regular season, let alone the postseason,” says Roberts, “because teams have won with the homer.”

Boy, have they ever.

In the past 10 completed years (2013-22), teams outhomering the other have won 76.5 percent of the time in the regular season and 80 percent of the time in the postseason, according to MLB.com reporter and researcher Sarah Langs.

The rate is even more pronounced in the past seven years (2016-22) -- 77.1 percent in the regular season and 84.8 percent in the postseason.

So many October games feel like a waiting game for that one big swing that’s going to go down as the difference-maker.

This postseason, however, has the potential to alter that equation. It could be a year in which the ability to accentuate the running game -- and stop the running game -- has a more pronounced effect on October outcomes.

The 2023 season ushered in a new era for Major League Baseball with the introduction of the pitch timer and its related limits on pickoffs and step-offs by the pitcher. Combined with slightly bigger bases, these rule changes created more speed in both the time of game and the action on the basepaths.

“The steal is such an important part of the game,” says Blue Jays second baseman Whit Merrifield. “I think analytics pushed it away, which is a shame. These new rules have helped bring it back and show there’s a lot of value in putting pressure on the opposing team that the numbers can’t quantify.”

As Merrifield mentions, the analytical value placed on an out compelled a line of thinking that if runners couldn’t successfully convert at least 75 percent of their stolen-base attempts, it wasn’t worth running.

The infatuation with the home run only compounded the issue. Singles hitters became an endangered species, reducing the number of stolen-base opportunities. The rate of singles per game in 2021 (10.29) was the lowest in a full season in Major League history. And when there aren’t a lot of singles, there is a lot less incentive to risk an out on a stolen base to get into scoring position.

All of the above led to an erosion in attempts, with only 1.2 stolen-base attempts per game in 2021, the lowest point since 1964.

Last year, there were only 1.1 attempts per game in the postseason.

The new rules, though, have altered the equation. Significantly.

“The steal has sort of come back,” Merrifield says. “And I think, in the postseason, it will be back.”

This year’s leaguewide rate of attempts per game is the highest since 2012, and the success rate is the highest in history:

When the experiment with the bigger bases was isolated to Triple-A in the 2021 season, it had a modest impact on stolen-base attempts (+0.1 per game) and the success rate (+1 percent) according to data from the league. From that, we can infer that the increase in steals in the bigs this year is probably driven much more by that significant drop in pickoff attempts, which puts runners in control of the cat-and-mouse game.

A pitcher can make two pickoff attempts without penalty. But if he throws over a third time and doesn’t nab the runner, it’s treated as a balk.

“It gives you a lot of confidence once he comes over twice that he’s going to be very strategic about coming over again and how quick he comes up or goes to the plate,” says Braves center fielder Michael Harris II. “If you’ve got confidence, you get to play around with them a little bit. It’s pretty huge.”

Not that anybody is going to watch a recent game and confuse it with one from the steal-crazy 1980s, but the new rules work in tandem to create an environment more reminiscent of that era than we’ve seen in some time. The defensive shift restrictions have created more baserunners (the leaguewide batting average on balls in play jumped from .290 in 2022 to .296 in ‘23), and the pickoff limits and bigger bases are inducing more steals.

We’re talking about baby steps here, but the rate of 2023 games won by the team with the most homers in the game was 75.3 percent entering Friday, which was on pace for the lowest such rate since 2014 (74 percent).

“The teams with power are still going to have a huge advantage,” says Tigers manager A.J. Hinch, who won two pennants and a World Series with the Astros in large part because of those clubs’ power production. “But if you can't control 90 feet in the postseason, everything is magnified. And so the benefit of the stolen base gets magnified, too. More and more teams are being pretty liberal with their decisions on trying to go, and I think the guy that can disrupt the game with his legs is going to be a major advantage in the postseason.”

Of course, the long ball is not going away. And the disruption Hinch references could be influential in another way.

It could actually lead to more clutch homers.

“The distraction of a baserunner, particularly a guy that’s going to run late in the game -- a tying run or a go-ahead run -- can take away from your focus on executing a pitch,” Braves ace Spencer Strider says. “Location and intensity can be diminished by distraction. That can lead to more home runs.”

Let’s not forget that perhaps the most famous home run in World Series history -- the hobbled Kirk Gibson’s epic walk-off for the Dodgers off A’s closer Dennis Eckersley in Game 1 of the 1988 Fall Classic -- was due in part to the base-stealing threat posed by Mike Davis, who had preceded the Gibson at-bat by drawing a two-out walk.

After four pickoff attempts by Eckersley (which would not be allowed now), Davis stole second on the ball that made the count 2-2.

Then, one ball later, Gibson stole the show.

“Davis was a big part of that at-bat,” Eckersley once said. “I had been concerned he was going to steal the entire time.”

Such concern is even more prevalent under the new rules. With fewer tools to prevent the running game, pitchers must pay extra mind to keeping speedsters off the bases and must limit walks.

“It’s definitely more of a challenge,” Strider says. “Now you’re not just focused on power. There are more aspects to the game.”

Catchers will be under the microscope more, too. In 2021, the Braves won it all despite catcher Travis d’Arnaud not throwing out a single one of 18 attempted basestealers in the postseason. It could be much more difficult to advance with that kind of performance in this environment.

And managers, of course, will have yet another layer to their jobs.

“There’s already so much attention on pitching changes in October and being willing to go to the bullpen a hitter too early rather than a hitter too late,” Hinch says. “Now you complicate that with an extra 90 feet. The pressure will mount as to when to make that decision because you are one pitch away from having a guy in scoring position. You’d better control the running game.”

As Roberts showed us, all it takes is a few seconds to dramatically alter an October game with your legs. Having now managed a full season in this speedier MLB environment, the man responsible for one of the most famous stolen bases in baseball history hopes there are going to be more players with more opportunities to do as he did and swipe an important bag when given the green light.

“I always go back to what Jim Thome and other great RBI guys that I played with say, which is that it’s always easier to get a single to drive in a run than it is to hit a home run,” Roberts says. “The difference is that [in recent years], the single hasn’t been valued. But it’s coming back this year. Now that the shift is out of play, you’re seeing the averages start to go up a little bit, guys value getting a hit, and the stolen base is really making a resurgence.”