Greene showing off his sky-high potential

This story was excerpted from Mark Sheldon’s Reds Beat newsletter, written this week by Manny Randhawa. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

Hunter Greene is on a roll that no Reds pitcher has experienced in 86 years.

Not since Johnny Vander Meer in 1938 had a Cincinnati hurler made six consecutive starts in which he yielded one run or fewer. Then came Greene’s current run, to which he added another gem of a performance on Saturday against the Giants.

Over his last six starts, Greene has given up just two runs while striking out 46 and walking 11. He has a scoreless innings streak that reached 21 on Saturday. And he has allowed only 10 hits combined over his past five outings, fewest by a Reds starter in a calendar month (min. 25 IP) since 1900.

We all knew Greene’s potential was sky-high when he made his MLB debut, on April 10, 2022. Entering that season, he was the Reds’ No. 1 prospect per MLB Pipeline, possessing a triple-digit fastball that blew away hitters in the Minor Leagues.

But over his first couple of seasons in the big leagues, injury and growing pains resulted in a 4.62 ERA. The raw stuff was there -- he struck out 30.7% of batters he faced from 2022-23 -- and he certainly had his moments, including 7 1/3 no-hit innings against the Pirates in his seventh career start. But the overall results left much to be desired.

Greene’s 2024 campaign has been dramatically different. Not only has he posted an ERA nearly two runs lower than his career average coming into the season, he was named an All-Star for the first time and as mentioned above, he’s making franchise history with how dominant he’s been.

With his six scoreless innings on Saturday against the Giants at Great American Ball Park, over which he walked one and struck out 11, Greene lowered his season ERA to 2.83. Perhaps the most impressive stat wasn’t the strikeouts, but the walks -- the right-hander has always had an elevated walk rate during his young career, just under 10%.

What has made Greene so good in 2024? Or in his own words after Saturday’s game, “What’s the secret to doing that?”

The driving force behind Greene’s improvement can be seen in the effectiveness of his four-seam fastball. It’s always been a pitch that can exceed 100 mph. But this year, he’s locating it like he hasn’t before at the Major League level, and that has set up his slider and splitter for success.

In fact, while the average velocity on Greene’s fastball has been down a bit, as has the whiff rate, opponents entered Saturday hitting just .190 against it. They hit .265 against it last year, and .261 against it in 2022.

According to Statcast, the run value of Greene’s four-seamer is +16 after his latest start, tied for second-best in the Majors. Last season, the run value on his four-seamer was -12. In his rookie year, it was -5.

Manager David Bell and one of Saturday’s offensive heroes, Tyler Stephenson, highlighted two key areas in which Greene has grown tremendously this year. And harnessing the power of his fastball has been central to that growth.

“From the very beginning [he was] determined, pitched with emotion,” Bell said after Greene’s performance on Saturday. “He got ahead all day. That’s been a key for him as he continues to get better and better.”

“His command has been unbelievable,” said Stephenson, who homered twice on Saturday. “When he’s sitting there painting corners and he’s throwing as hard as he is, and being able to throw his slider whenever he wants in counts, I just feel like his command has been a game-changer.”

Harnessing the fastball, getting ahead in counts and commanding his arsenal. If Greene, who turns 25 on Tuesday, continues to build on his ever-growing experience -- something he takes pride in doing -- big things may lie ahead for the Reds’ budding ace.

In his own words from Saturday: “The work -- it doesn’t stop.”