How the playoff picture has already changed 

As baseball writers, we're obligated to begin every April article with, "It's still so early," because it is so early. Bryce Harper is hitting .500, Chris Sale has an 8.00 ERA and the Mariners are on pace to win 142 games. As last year's Mets would tell you -- you remember, the ones who won 11 of their first 12 games, then finished a dozen games under .500 -- there's so much that can, and will, happen.

The point is, you shouldn't worry too much about individual player stats. But it's not too early to start looking at what teams' win-loss records are doing to the rest of the season. It's not that the 2-6 Red Sox are guaranteed to have a losing season, of course, because they're very good and should still be contenders. But, despite what the late-season narrative tells you, a game in April counts just as much as a game in September. It may feel different. But it's still one of 162.

That being the case, even a week's worth of games have changed the odds, especially for teams that have gotten off to particularly fast or slow starts, or play in divisions in which both things have happened.

We can show you what that looks like, too. Over at FanGraphs, they maintain daily playoff odds, based on "current standings, the remaining schedule, [and] the team's projected performance," all averaged after 10,000 simulations. It's not a perfect prediction, because nothing can be. Consider it more "informed speculation."

By looking at the difference between the odds on March 19 and the odds on Friday morning, we can see what's changed. In some cases, not much. In some cases, quite a lot.

Again, we're not looking at a large part of the season. But it's better to win games than to not win games, right? Last season, the Cubs and Brewers tied at 95-67 atop the National League Central, requiring a tiebreaker. And the Dodgers and Rockies tied at 91-71 atop the NL West, requiring a tiebreaker. In 2017, the Rockies edged the Brewers for a Wild Card slot by one game. The Red Sox topped the Yankees for the AL East by two games. Every game really does matter.

What's interesting about the chart above is that there's a decent correlation between won-loss record to date, but not a perfect one. That is, the Orioles got off to a surprising 4-1 start, and their odds didn't shift at all, even before two losses. That's because they're still projected to be a non-contender, while any reasonable fan would still expect the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays to outdo them. Meanwhile, the Twins got off to a 4-1 start, and their odds jumped up by 10 points, because the only other contender in their division, Cleveland, has stumbled.

Twenty-one teams haven't seen their odds change by more than six points in either direction, as you'd expect. There's only so much damage you can do in a week.

Let's try to explain the other nine.

SIX ON THEIR WAY UP

+20 points (28 percent to 48 percent), Rays

The Rays are for real. They did, after all, win 90 games in 2018, despite losing 13 of their first 17 games, and now they're off to a 5-2 start (which very well could have been 6-1, had they managed to convert a first-and-third-with-one-out situation in a scoreless ninth inning on Wednesday). It helps, obviously, that the Red Sox and Yankees have gotten off to slow starts, and it helps that Blake Snell and José Alvarado are out there leading what looks like a very good staff.

But that 48 percent number is still barely 50/50, of course, and we're just talking about making the playoffs, not winning the division (nine percent). The two big beasts in the East still loom.

+16 points (28 percent to 44 percent), Brewers

Good start, right? Six wins in seven games, thanks in part to Christian Yelich maintaining last season's MVP pace. The reason that number feels a little low is simply because the NL is full of teams in the mix for playoff spots. There's a reason that only one team, the Dodgers, has playoff odds above 85 percent. Then again, the Brewers are currently the only NL Central team above .500.

+10 points (48 percent to 58 percent), Phillies

You've noticed that the Phillies won four of their first five games, surely, but as important is that they did it directly against division rivals in Atlanta and Washington. It's great to win games. It's also great to make your immediate competition lose games. Philadelphia is now a 60/40 bet to make the playoffs, and that number could keep increasing.

+10 points (40 percent to 50 percent), Mets

The Mets are 5-2 after losing to the Nationals on Thursday, and again, they started 11-1 last season. No fan base should know better that a good start guarantees nothing. It does, however, give you a little more runway, and this pushes them up to a 50/50 playoff shot. It's a coin flip. It's more than a lot of teams have.

+10 points (36 percent to 46 percent), Twins

Minnesota has hit just a single home run, but it has won four of its first five behind some surprisingly strong pitching. In this case, the Twins' odds to win a Wild Card have gone up only a little (four points), but their odds of winning the division have gone up by nearly eight points, to 29 percent. That's because they've been winning, and Cleveland -- in part due to a season-opening matchup with the Twins -- hasn't.

+7 points (2 percent to 9 percent), Mariners

Mariners fans won't like this one, and we get it. They're 7-1! They have the best record in baseball! What that's done is move their playoff odds from basically non-existent to on the radar, which sounds about right. The reason this number isn't larger is because the great start hasn't meaningfully changed opinions about the talent on the roster, perhaps aside from Tim Beckham or Domingo Santana. Keep going like this, and the numbers will move in Seattle's favor.

THREE OFF TO ROUGH STARTS

-12 points (20 percent to 8 percent), Angels

Losing six of your first seven is a problem, obviously. So is losing Justin Upton for weeks or months to a toe injury, which hurts your future projections. The Angels were already going to have a tough road toward the playoffs, with the Astros in their division and the Yankees or Red Sox widely expected to claim one of the Wild Card spots. Throw in the good starts by the Rays and Twins, and you can see why this is 9-1 against.

-16 points (90 percent to 74 percent), Red Sox

It should be pointed out that 74-percent odds of making the playoffs is still very good. It's the fourth-best in the American League. But it's also been hard to paint the opening of the Red Sox season as anything but a disaster, thanks to six losses in eight games. The ongoing velocity concerns of Chris Sale may not focus directly into the projections, but they're hard to ignore. All that said, this is still most of the same roster that won the World Series last season. They haven't even had a home game yet. They'll be fine. Probably.

-18 points (64 percent to 46 percent), Cubs

PECOTA, the Baseball Prospectus projection system, pegged the Cubs to finish last in the NL Central. That's probably not going to happen, and it's more a testament to a division that has five competitive teams than anything else. But it's hard to say the 1-5 Cubs start is doing a lot to alleviate those concerns, especially with a bullpen that cannot seem to get anyone out. A 46-percent playoff odds projection is still a coin flip, which isn't bad in a loaded NL. But this isn't the start they wanted, of course.