Analyzing the 2024 Padres, midway through the season

This story was excerpted from AJ Cassavell’s Padres Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

SAN DIEGO -- The 2024 Padres are at the halfway point. Thus far? Well, they’re a .500 team (41-41) in a big jumbled mess of playoff contenders.

Of course, that’s where every team begins every season -- which means the Padres are going to be judged entirely on how they finish, after merely treading water in the first half.

Still, there’s plenty to take away from an up-and-down first three months. Here’s the Padres’ midterm report:

What went right…

1. Merrill's breakout

It was probably reasonable to expect a solid showing from Jackson Merrill in his rookie season. He's clearly a talented, confident player. But this? Merrill is already an excellent defensive center fielder, when he'd never played there at any level. He's a legitimate power threat, when power was perhaps his biggest question mark. The Padres gambled on Merrill being able to learn the challenges of the big leagues on the fly, and he’s done just that.

2. Serious fringe production

Merrill isn't the only player giving the Padres surplus production. Jurickson Profar has been arguably the best outfielder in the National League. Matt Waldron is stabilizing the rotation. Jeremiah Estrada has gone from waiver claim to lockdown setup man. In the past couple seasons, San Diego dealt with questions about the construction of its roster and the fringe pieces. This year, that doesn’t seem to be the concern.

3. Suarez nails down the ninth

Sure, there are still questions about this bullpen. But it all looks a whole lot cleaner when you have the ninth inning locked down on a regular basis. It’s easy to forget the concerns about Robert Suarez prior to the season, coming off his disappointing 2023 campaign. Still, the Padres handed him the closer role, and he’s been everything they could’ve hoped for, nailing down 19 saves with a 1.16 ERA.

What went wrong…

1. The stars slumped early

This feels like it’s starting to change just in time for the second half. Fernando Tatis Jr. has looked like an All-Star all month. Manny Macahdo is hitting .314 over the past two weeks. (Xander Bogaerts, meanwhile, is on the mend from a fracture in his left shoulder.) But through the season's first two months, as the Padres got serious production from the fringes, the struggles of their stars seemed to hold them back.

2. Injuries

Yes, every team has them. No, there’s never a good time for them. But the Padres weren’t exactly well equipped to handle the particular injuries they dealt with. With Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove on the IL, San Diego has gone 4-10 in games not started by pitchers in its Opening Day rotation. Meanwhile, Machado’s surgically repaired right elbow was clearly still bothering him early in the season, and the Padres (naturally) struggled to replace his value at third base when he was serving as DH. Of course, the silver lining among the injuries is that San Diego acquired Luis Arraez shortly before Bogaerts landed on the IL.

3. Inconsistency

Maybe it’s just baseball. Maybe these things even out in the end. But the first half of this season saw some strange and often maddening results. The Padres have played three series against the Dodgers and have yet to lose any of them. They’ve beaten the Brewers twice and the Braves once. But each time the Padres have seemed ready to take off, they’ve sputtered. They’ve been swept by the Rockies and Angels. Earlier this month, they became the last team in the Majors to record a sweep -- only to follow that with a five-game losing streak. After a strong weekend series against Milwaukee, maybe now’s the time. Or, as Jake Cronenworth put it: “Not two steps forward, one step back. Take two steps forward and keep going forward. That’s the key.”

What needs to happen…

1. Superstars playing like superstars

As noted above, Tatis is already doing precisely that, though his right quad tightness presents some cause for concern. Machado appears to be on the right track. Arraez, despite his recent slump, has fit his role perfectly. If Bogaerts returns and hits like he’s capable, the Padres are getting enough production from their depth pieces to be considered one of the sport’s toughest offenses.

2. Trade for an arm

Honestly, maybe two. The Padres don’t exactly have the deep prospect pool they once did. But they don’t need an ace or a closer. They just need some measure of help for a beleaguered but talented pitching staff. Because right now, their ‘pen is overworked and their rotation is struggling to fill voids when its regulars land on the IL. San Diego won’t be the only team shopping for pitching at the Deadline. But it can’t afford to be left empty-handed.

3. Get (reasonably) healthy

It won’t be perfect. It never is. But if there’s a path to a successful finish to this season, it’s predicated on health. Particularly in the rotation. The Padres have work to do to stay in the NL West race. But say Darvish and Musgrove are healthy and thriving down the stretch. Say Tatis, Profar, Bogaerts and Machado all withstand their ailments and anchor this lineup. Who wants to face this team in the playoffs?