How 5 surprise teams can reach postseason

Much like the concept of “curbside pickup” has rapidly gone from the fringes to the forefront during the current pandemic, a handful of teams widely deemed to be afterthoughts at the start of 2020 are suddenly very much in the postseason mix, with just 2 1/2 weeks left in this wonderfully weird 2020 season.

While there were reasons to circle the likes of the Padres, White Sox and Blue Jays as up-and-comers ready to pounce, only the most optimistic of souls prescribed playoff bids for the Giants, Mariners, Marlins, Orioles and Tigers. On Opening Day, none of those five teams were projected by FanGraphs to have more than a 12% chance of making it to October when the season began, and yet all five were, at midweek, within two games of a postseason spot.

• 2020 postseason standings

For this, we have the randomness of the 60-game schedule, the temporarily expanded postseason format and the troubles of the likes of the Yankees, Astros, Mets, Reds and others to thank. But of course, there are some better-than-expected things that have also happened internally.

Let’s take a look at the chances that these five teams actually reach October, listed in order of their current playoff odds, according to FanGraphs.

Giants (23-21)
Preseason playoff odds (per FanGraphs): 12.0%
Current playoff odds: 72.7%

Why they’ll make it: Mediocrity has run amok in the National League East and especially the NL Central, and the COVID-affected schedules of the Marlins and Cardinals are a real burden down the stretch. The Giants likely won’t be catching the Padres for second place in the NL West, but merely hovering around .500 might be enough to get this done via the Wild Card. The Giants kept Kevin Gausman at the Trade Deadline, which allowed them to maintain rotation stability. And sparked by Mike Yastrzemski in the leadoff spot, the offense is surprisingly among the top 10 in MLB in both slugging percentage and on-base percentage.

Why they won’t: The Giants’ schedule might be more straightforward than that of St. Louis or Miami, but it does include a heavy dose of the Padres and A’s down the stretch, which isn’t easy. It could very well be that a lineup in which Brandon Belt, Donovan Solano, Alex Dickerson, Wilmer Flores, Darin Ruf and Austin Slater are vastly outperforming their career norms is over its skis and will falter down the stretch. Or a bullpen that’s in MLB’s lower third in ERA and WHIP might run out of steam. But the Giants have put themselves in prime position to advance.

Marlins (19-19)
Preseason playoff odds: 9.2%
Current playoff odds: 36.9%

Why they’ll make it: The Marlins have already had more than half of their active roster test positive for COVID-19, requiring more than 130 roster moves to get through the first six weeks of the season. A tight playoff race looks easy by comparison. With a young rotation buoyed by rookies Sixto Sánchez and Trevor Rogers, with the lineup enhanced by the arrival of Starling Marte and with a loose and pressure-free clubhouse that has already overcome major challenges, the Fish look frisky. Oh, and obviously the baseball gods are enamored with Derek Jeter (2018-19 Marlins records, notwithstanding).

Why they won’t: Did we mention the rotation is young? It is also now absent Elieser Hernandez, who had a 6.8 strikeout-to-walk ratio before suffering a season-ending lat injury. The costs of the COVID scare are still being paid, as the Marlins are closing the season with 28 games in 24 days, with no off-days. Though they are currently in a good spot in the standings, that’s asking a lot of them in the home stretch.

Orioles (20-22)
Preseason playoff odds: 1.4%
Current playoff odds: 9.5%

Why they’ll make it: Second place in the American League East is probably beyond Baltimore’s grasp. But one week after taking three of four from the Yankees, the Orioles have an opportunity this weekend to do it again. And those direct hits against the free-falling Yanks would totally change the complexion of the Wild Card race. The O’s roster has been revitalized right in front of our eyes, getting a huge boost from prospect Ryan Mountcastle (.383/.441/.633), to go with the way-better-than-anticipated performance of former cast-offs like Anthony Santander, Rio Ruiz, Pedro Severino, Renato Núñez and Hanser Alberto. The arrival of young arms Keegan Akin and Dean Kremer has increased the intrigue with this club.

Why they won’t: Playing 12 games in the next 11 days against the Yankees, Braves and Rays is quite the test of this fun-but-ultimately-unproven O’s squad. And it comes with Santander, who has been so instrumental for the offense, on the shelf with a likely season-ending oblique strain. Furthermore, trades of Mychal Givens and Miguel Castro has created an audition in the bullpen, which has talent but not track record. And the rotation, which has had some stumbles after a strong first couple of weeks this season, might be overly reliant on the new kids on the block.

Tigers (19-22)
Preseason playoff odds: 12.0%
Current playoff odds: 6.6%

Why they’ll make it: Playing in a division with three legitimately good teams has reduced the Tigers’ odds, but they can still squeak in via the Wild Card if the Yankees continue to fall apart and the O’s and M’s can’t hang. The Tigers have hung around because Miguel Cabrera got hot, because Jeimer Candelario has played out of his mind, because Jonathan Schoop has had a resurgence and because Victor Reyes’ strong performance has helped the outfield absorb the loss of JaCoby Jones to a fractured hand and Cameron Maybin to trade. Now prospect Daz Cameron has arrived to the outfield, as well. It might not be asking too much for all of the above to keep carrying the offensive weight for another couple of weeks, and the Tigers’ starting staff has tons of upside if recently promoted prospects Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal turn the corner. That the Tigers finish the season with four games against the Royals can’t hurt.

Why they won’t: Though Skubal was excellent in his last outing against the Twins, we haven’t yet seen enough from him or Mize to feel confident in their ability to point the way to October (and asking that of them is unfair, anyway, considering they had never pitched above Double-A before this year). The rotation, as a whole, has an ERA north of 6.00, and that’s put undue strain on a bullpen that can only handle so many innings.

Mariners (19-24)
Preseason playoff odds: 5.5%
Current playoff odds: 3.1%

Why they’ll make it: As you see here and above, the odds have actually moved backward for two of the AL teams on this list, because most of the playoff spots are essentially accounted for. But the Mariners are lurking in the Wild Card race, and Houston has opened an opportunity for them to seize second place in the AL West. While the Astros’ pitching staff has been plagued by injuries and walks, Seattle has quietly pieced together an effective rotation in which veteran Marco Gonzales and rookies Justin Dunn and Justus Sheffield have delivered. And this team has dramatically turned around its defensive play, going from ranking 29th in MLB in defensive runs saved in 2019 to 12th. With the lineup keyed by AL Rookie of the Year candidate Kyle Lewis, the Mariners have built and protected leads and taken advantage of a Rangers-heavy schedule in recent weeks.

Why they won’t: The schedule and the bullpen. The Astros will play 10 of their final 13 games against the Rangers and D-backs, two clubs with sub-.500 winning percentages (the other three games are against the Mariners). Seattle, meanwhile, has two doubleheaders with the A’s and series with the Giants and Padres on its docket in that final stretch. And the Mariners’ relief corps, despite some recent improvement, still has an ERA north of 6.00.