This move could set off domino effect for Guardians

This story was excerpted from Mandy Bell's Guardians Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

So much of the Guardians’ offseason boils down to one question: Will they trade Shane Bieber? This will be the talking point regarding the organization until they make that decision. But what seems like a simple yes or no answer suddenly becomes a domino effect of more head-scratching scenarios.

Let’s start with Bieber. There’s no way to know if he’ll be traded. The Guardians will undoubtedly be listening to any and all calls regarding the right-handed ace’s situation. Plus, they need offensive help, and the easiest way to make a trade for a bat is to take away from an area of strength. Thanks to the strong rookie performances from Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams and Logan Allen, the Guardians’ rotation is once again poised to thrive. So, even without Cal Quantrill, who was designated for assignment and traded to Colorado, dealing a pitcher like Bieber could be the easiest move (although the Quantrill trade certainly hurts that starting depth).

And thus begins the domino effect. If trading Bieber is the plan, what can the Guardians get for him? The stars seemed to be aligned for the 2020 AL Cy Young winner to be moved at this year’s Trade Deadline. At that point, he had one-and-a-half years of control left, and he could have been a target for any contending team in need of starting pitching. Instead, he was sidelined to start the second half of the season with right elbow inflammation. He didn’t return to the big league rubber until the end of September for two starts.

In his last outing, he looked like vintage Bieber, allowing one run on five hits in six innings. But that was just one of two starts after two months on the injured list. His underlying numbers have been indicating that the success he saw in 2020 might be hard to duplicate, and his velocity has dipped over the last few years. Add that to the uncertainty of what the elbow issues from this past season could mean in the future, and now we have our next question.

What’s Bieber’s trade value? In theory, he’s still one of the best starting pitchers on the market. But these factors could cause opposing clubs to be hesitant in giving up the type of talent Cleveland would be looking for in exchange for a starter who may have some question marks. The Guardians rarely make any trade for a penny less than they believe they deserve. But they also aren’t ones to watch talented starters walk into free agency without anything in return.

If the Guardians can find the perfect trade partner, there’s nothing stopping them from moving Bieber for an impact bat. If they can’t, they can also cross their fingers and hope that Bieber has a strong first half of the 2024 season and look to trade him to a contending team at next year’s Deadline.

But what happens if they don’t trade him this winter? How do they improve the offense?

No one is ever completely off the table when it comes to trade talks in Cleveland (except for José Ramírez, who signed his contract extension last year). However, Andrés Giménez and Josh Naylor likely aren’t going anywhere, and Emmanuel Clase should be back in the closing role. From there, anything could be a possibility. The Guardians have plenty of mid-tier outfielders who are overcrowding those positions, but that wouldn’t prompt the type of return needed to take this offense to the next level. Depending on who the organization is trying to trade for, maybe Cleveland would be willing to part with other top pitching talent, a highly regarded prospect or position players who have served in key roles over the last season or two. But all of that is determined by what the Guardians can get in return.

The No. 1 thing Cleveland needs to do is establish a plan. If Bieber still has the type of trade value he had at the beginning of the season, that will help. If not, things could be more challenging.

Everything is surrounded by question marks -- even what the outlook is on payroll. It helps that the coaching staff is officially set and the front office can focus solely on the plan for 2024 roster construction. And the Winter Meetings are a great place to start putting that blueprint into practice.