Here's how Lodolo can turn his 2024 season around

This story was excerpted from Mark Sheldon's Reds Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

TORONTO -- With Hunter Greene on the injured list because of a sore right elbow, the rest of the Reds' rotation has no choice but to pick him up. For one starter in particular -- Nick Lodolo -- that would require a big turnaround, and it needs to happen quickly.

Lodolo, who was Cincinnati's best-performing starter earlier in the season, has been mired in a very rough stretch.

"I’ve got to be that guy, to go out there and win the game," Lodolo said Saturday after his worst start of the season vs. the Royals, a 13-1 defeat. "I know I can do that. I’ve proven I can do that. It’s just a matter of me doing it."

Over his first 11 starts, Lodolo was 8-2 with a 2.76 ERA, 51 hits, 15 walks, 70 strikeouts and six home runs allowed over 65 1/3 innings. But on June 23 vs. the Red Sox, a five-start win streak was halted during a lackluster outing in a 7-4 loss. Lodolo gave up four runs (three earned) over 4 2/3 innings.

Two days later, Lodolo went on the IL (for the third time this season) because of a blister on his left index finger. After missing three starts, he simply hasn't been the same since.

That culminated in his disastrous performance vs. Kansas City. Lodolo threw a season-low 2 1/3 innings and tied a career high with eight earned runs allowed.

“I’m working on some things mechanically and stuff like that," said Lodolo, who is 9-5 with a 4.55 ERA in 20 starts. “It’s just unacceptable to throw the ball like that. Nothing crazy to work on. I've just got to find a way to be better.”

Over his last eight starts since returning from the blister, Lodolo is 1-2 with a 7.30 ERA. Over 40 2/3 innings, he has allowed 43 hits and 15 walks with 40 strikeouts and six homers. The blister, he says, is not an issue.

“My finger is fine. There’s no question I haven’t thrown the ball the same since it happened," Lodolo said. "I’m just trying to get it back on track. Just keep showing up and putting in the work.”

With the aid of Statcast data and reporter Thomas Harrigan helping me go under the hood, it's clear that Lodolo hasn't had command of his curveball. When it's working well, it's one of the best in baseball. When it's not, well ...

“I don’t think it has quite the teeth," Reds pitching coach Derek Johnson said on Tuesday. "You’re seeing ones that are either more hittable or they’re not going to chase it the way they normally do.”

A few things that stand out:

Lodolo is getting less movement with his curveball since returning.

Before IL: 41.7 inches of vertical break, 12.1 inches horizontal break

After IL: 40.3 inches of vertical break, 10.3 inches horizontal break

His whiff and strikeout rates on his curveball are both down, too.

Before IL: 47.4% K-rate, 44.7% whiff rate

After IL: 36.6% K-rate, 36.4% whiff rate

Lodolo's batting average/slugging percentage allowed on curveballs are much worse, though his expected stats (based on quality of contact and K’s) are similar and suggest there’s been some bad luck involved here too.

Before IL: .193 BA /.176 xBA, .250 SLG/.243 xSLG

After IL: .314 BA /.161 xBA, .486 SLG/.238 xSLG

Finally, Lodolo's chase rate has also gone way down on curveballs.

Before IL: 40.2% chase rate

After IL: 27.9% chase rate

Even though the blister is now healed, it changed Lodolo's delivery.

“I think he probably compensated a little bit," Johnson said. "He definitely had to change his grip when he had the blister, even before shutting him down. I think it’s getting back just to the feel of it, making sure his delivery part is right. I think it’s been a little bit different for him since he’s come back. And we’re working on it. You see some glimpse of it here and there.

"I saw a couple of 13’s and 14’s horizontals. You will also see some sevens or eights. That’s not what we’re normally seeing. Unfortunately, we’re not seeing the 14’s enough, but hopefully in the next couple of starts we’ll see a little bit more consistency.”