After Chapman addition, will Pirates add or stay put with rotation?

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If had you asked me a week ago, it seemed like a near certainty that the Pirates would add one more starting pitcher behind Mitch Keller, Martín Pérez and Marco Gonzales.

Now, I still see it as a possibility, but I’m less sure. Aroldis Chapman’s acquisition is a big reason why.

A source told MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand on Monday that the Pirates and Chapman are in agreement on a one-year, $10.5 million pact. Chapman is not a reliever like Jordan Hicks, who can be stretched out to start. He’s a true one-inning shutdown guy when he’s at his best.

On the night we learned of Chapman’s deal, we also learned of reports a couple of hours later that James Paxton was going to the Dodgers on a one-year contract worth at least $11 million with incentives -- right around the value of Chapman’s contract. Paxton was a fairly reliable mid-rotation starter from 2016-19, but he hasn’t made more than 20 starts in a season since then, and he has a 4.90 ERA in 25 starts (117 2/3 innings) in the four seasons that followed that stretch.

What this interesting day of reports suggests to me is that the market for starting pitching is quite high now that the top options outside of Blake Snell are off the board.

On the trade side, Feinsand heard from a National League executive that they believe Dylan Cease “doesn’t get moved at this point,” and an American League executive told him they think the Guardians will keep Shane Bieber. The Marlins have a couple of interesting pitchers in Edward Cabrera and Jesús Luzardo, but Feinsand’s report indicates that the asking price has still been quite high in recent talks.

Almost every contending team has to give up prospects for an advantageous addition to the Major League roster, but the Pirates are trying to build their contender heavily through their development system, not through big trades and hefty contracts. So does it make sense to do either of those now for a starting pitcher? At the moment, I’m not so sure it does.

So where does that leave the Pirates in terms of options for covering innings in 2024?

Well, the first possibility, which would work in an ideal world, is that a pitcher like Quinn Priester or Luis L. Ortiz takes the next step to become a solid fourth or fifth rotation piece. Then, the Pirates could hope that JT Brubaker’s layoff doesn’t lead to shaky results when he hopefully returns for the second half.

There is a lot that could go wrong in this scenario. But the silver lining is that the Pirates now have a bullpen with guys that can comfortably hold leads from the sixth through the ninth innings: A bridge of Carmen Mlodzinski, Colin Holderman, Chapman and David Bednar. You could sub in Ryan Borucki and Dauri Moreta for the first two, depending on the matchup.

But that strategy works with the acquisition of another pitcher, too, so there’s no real downside to adding one more starter. I still think this will be the case, but at a different tier of the market.

A good example is Noah Syndergaard, who Robert Murray of Fansided said has received interest from the Pirates. Syndergaard had his worst season of more than two starts in 2023, when he posted a 6.50 ERA in 18 starts. But in '22, he had a 3.94 ERA across 24 starts and one relief appearance.

It fits the mold of the Pérez and Gonzales signings: Two pitchers who had strong seasons in recent years but are coming off a tough one.

Another option that could fit this kind of acquisition pattern is Michael Lorenzen. Lorenzen threw MLB’s most recent no-hitter, on Aug. 9, but he ended the 2023 season with an 8.01 ERA in 30 1/3 innings after the no-no, which led him to be moved to the bullpen, given the Phillies’ World Series title hopes.

There are two and a half weeks until Spring Training, and that’s a lot of time for the markets to shift for the Pirates. I’m so interested to see what plays out.