At Astros camp, prospects working on approach at plate
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WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. – It’s easy to look at Jacob Melton’s first full season and call it a success. The 2022 second-rounder out of Oregon State collected 23 homers and 46 steals in 99 games between High-A Asheville and Double-A Corpus Christi, making him one of only five 20-40 Minor Leaguers in 2023. He ascended to the top spot in MLB Pipeline’s ranking of Astros prospects as a result and has set himself up for a possible 2024 ETA in The Show.
But the 23-year-old outfielder isn’t in pro ball to have a single good Minor League season. He’s working to develop for the long haul. After reflecting headed into his second offseason, Melton felt that he “left some hits on the table” and got to work on streamlining a swing that had long incorporated many moving parts.
“Last couple years, I’ve been going with a pretty big move and leg kick, trying to get into the back hip and control that going forward,” he said. “That was causing some inconsistency with timing. Going into this offseason, I wanted to nail down something that was going to be a little more consistent to give me a better opportunity to be on time and put myself in a better position to hit more often.”
It isn’t hard to see why Melton may have felt that way. His strikeout rate leaped from 21.1 percent at High-A to 28.6 in a small 13-game sample at Double-A. There was certainly loud contact – five of his 13 hits with Corpus Christi left the yard – but if he could find the barrel on an even more regular basis, the rest of the former Oregon State Beaver’s profile would take a jump.
That example of Melton not resting on his laurels is something the Astros hope the rest of their hitters copy heading into this season.
“I think he’s done a good job of exemplifying the primary trait that we’re looking for, which is the willingness,” said senior director of player development and performance science Jacob Buffa. “That’s all we can ask of guys. Are you willing to work with us on some of these things?”
It’s an especially important lesson given the current construction of Houston's system. Beyond Melton, Luis Baez (No. 2), Brice Matthews (No. 4), Zach Dezenzo (No. 5) and Zach Cole (No. 7) are Top 10 prospects in the organization with power grades of 55 or above and hit tools of 45 or below. That’s all the more notable considering Houston big leaguers had the fifth-highest collective batting average in 2023 at .259 and the third-lowest K percentage at 19.8. To crack the Astros’ loaded MLB lineup, you have to hold your own in the box beyond just showing slugging ability.
That’s something Melton and Dezenzo – whom Buffa also credited with cutting down his swing-and-miss in 2023 – have keenly understood. It's the standard the organization will them and their other hitters to in '24 and beyond.
“It’s a testament to our scouts that evaluate these players and know that they come in and have a certain quality about their work,” Buffa said. “It’s a testament to our players that are talented enough to make the adjustments, and it’s a testament to our hitting staff that’s able to identify what the player needs.”
Spring standout: Joey Loperfido
The Astros’ No. 6 prospect climbed three levels in '23 before finishing at Triple-A Sugar Land, and he posted an .880 OPS with 25 homers and 27 steals along the way, making him an interesting non-roster invite this spring. He’s taken advantage of his time on the Major League side by going 12-for-29 (.414) with a triple and five doubles in 15 games.
While he can have a long stroke that can lead to strikeouts, Loperfido has exhibited plus raw power that he’s done a better job of tapping into over his three seasons in pro ball. His upper-level experience and Grapefruit League success have kept him in consideration for one of the final spots on Houston’s bench, but perhaps most notable – beyond his kitchen skills – has been his focus on the grass. Loperfido got time at second and first base last season but has only played the outfield this spring. That trend should continue whether he opens in the bigs or heads back to Triple-A Sugar Land.
“We’re going to work him in at all three outfield spots,” Buffa said. “He’s played all those before, but we think Loperfido has the ability to be a good defender at all three positions, which is difficult to do. But if there’s anyone that can do it, that kid works as hard as anybody, so we’re going to push him in an effort to make sure he gets regular at-bats.”
Breakout potential: Jose Fleury
You could certainly make a case that Houston’s No. 9 prospect has already broken out. The right-hander posted a 3.65 ERA and 1.13 WHIP with 139 strikeouts in 98 2/3 innings last season for Single-A Fayetteville. His 34.9 percent K rate, 22.9 K-BB% and .181 average-against were all tops among 47 Single-A pitchers with at least 90 innings pitched.
Fleury accomplished those numbers on the strength of his 65-grade changeup – a low-80s offering that fades devastatingly below bats, leading to a high whiff rate. But the Dominican Republic native could take off like a rocket if he can unlock a little more velocity out of his 90-92 mph fastball or develop his upper-70s curveball into a true above-average pitch.
“He’s acknowledged that he’s going to need another really good pitch to get hitters out in the big leagues, and he’s been working on that with our staff,” Buffa said. “I think his ability to compete with what he’s got while developing what he will need to be a frontline Major League starter is very impressive.”
Something to prove: Pedro León
When León signed with the Astros for a franchise-record $4 million as a 22-year-old in January 2021, there was hope that he could climb quickly toward Houston and eventually take over either an outfield or middle-infield spot. Three years later, he’s played 260 Triple-A games over the last two seasons and has yet to get over the hump to make that elusive Major League debut.
The 25-year-old still has promising tools like his plus-plus speed, immense arm strength and playable power, and it was notable that he was one of only three 20-20 Pacific Coast League players in 2023 after finishing with 21 homers and 21 steals. But a 28.8 percent K rate – at a time when strikeouts were down at the Minors’ top level – remains a concern.
After giving León time in center (68 starts), second base (50 starts) and right field (10 starts) last year, the Astros are hopeful keeping him to one spot will ease his developmental burden and stabilize the rest of his profile.
“I want to give him a lot of credit because we’ve asked him to play multiple positions, and he has,” Buffa said. “And we’ve asked him to do that while also hitting, and he has. I think what we’re going to try and facilitate from him this year is to find some more consistency in center and allow him to show off his tools there.”