5 Hot Stove storylines to watch entering '24
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The calendar has flipped to 2024, and with the new year, we can see spring on the horizon. In about six weeks, Spring Training will begin as pitchers and catchers report to camps in Arizona and Florida.
But before that happens, there is still much unfinished business to be conducted this offseason. The vast majority of free agents on this year’s market remain unsigned, and the trade market remains fertile ground for some potential blockbuster moves.
Now that 2023 is in the rearview mirror, here are five offseason storylines as ’24 gets underway:
1. Where will the reigning National League Cy Young Award winner land?
Over the first 19 years of the 21st century, a reigning Cy Young Award winner found himself on the free agent market only once -- Roger Clemens in 2004. But since the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign, there has been a Cy Young Award winner on the market every year.
This time around, it’s Blake Snell. With Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto off the board, both joining the Dodgers, Snell’s name is the biggest among free-agent starting pitchers. The left-hander led the Majors with a 2.25 ERA, a 182 ERA+ and 5.8 hits per nine innings in his age-30 campaign last year.
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Of course, one of the more fascinating aspects of Snell’s free agency is that he also led MLB with 99 walks, raising questions about whether he can sustain the level of success he enjoyed in 2023.
Still, the two-time Cy Young Award winner will likely come at a hefty cost. So far, several teams have been linked to him, including the Angels, Cubs, Giants, Red Sox and incumbent Padres, for whom he pitched the past three seasons.
The Dodgers would seem to be out of the running after their $1.1 billion outlay to sign Ohtani and Yamamoto … but can we really put anything past them at this point?
The clubs in the mix for Snell that don't end up signing him won't be completely out of luck in their quest to land a notable starting pitcher -- left-handers Jordan Montgomery and Shōta Imanaga headline the next tier of starters still available.
2. There are a lot of bats out there -- where will they end up?
While the position player market for free agents this offseason is thin relative to years past, there are still a lot of potential impact bats out there for the taking. The most notable player in this category is Cody Bellinger, who had a great walk year after three down years that had many wondering if his best was behind him.
Bellinger enjoyed a rapid rise to stardom, winning the 2017 NL Rookie of the Year Award and the 2019 NL MVP Award with the Dodgers. But from 2020-22, he posted a .648 OPS. He had a major bounceback campaign in ’23, though, hitting .307/.356/.525 with 26 home runs and 20 steals in 130 games for the Cubs. He was named NL Comeback Player of the Year.
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As with Snell, there are some concerning trends with Bellinger. Underlying metrics may be cause for pause when considering the center fielder/first baseman, but he is nonetheless the best position player available. Several teams have been linked to Bellinger this offseason, but the Blue Jays and Cubs are reportedly the frontrunners right now.
Bellinger is far from the only potential impact hitter on the market -- Matt Chapman, Rhys Hoskins, J.D. Martinez, Jorge Soler, Teoscar Hernández, Adam Duvall, Joc Pederson and Justin Turner also remain up for grabs.
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3. Are there more blockbuster trades ahead?
Juan Soto to the Yankees. Tyler Glasnow to the Dodgers. Chris Sale to the Braves. What’s next?
There are still some tantalizing possibilities for the trade market given the rumors about which players around the game may be moved. It’s a pitching-heavy group, including former Cy Young Award winners Corbin Burnes and Shane Bieber, as well as White Sox right-hander Dylan Cease.
The trade market may be highlighted by pitchers, but there are certainly some intriguing position players whom teams are reportedly listening on. That includes outfielder Max Kepler and middle infielder Jorge Polanco of the Twins -- both are veterans with productive seasons in their past.
Kepler belted 24 homers in 130 games last season and launched 36 in 2019, while Polanco slugged .503 with 33 homers in ’21. Could either or both of them be on the move? The prospects for more blockbuster deals certainly look promising.
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4. Will the quiet competitors make some noise?
Going into the offseason, there were several clubs looking to make some significant splashes to improve their rosters for 2024. Some have done just that, most notably the Dodgers. But there are others who have been relatively quiet.
The Giants certainly haven’t been quiet as far as rumors are concerned -- they were reportedly aggressive in their pursuit of Ohtani and other major free agents, just as they were the prior offseason when they were unable to land marquee free agents Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa.
San Francisco did sign Korean star center fielder Jung Hoo Lee to a massive deal, but it seems a team that finished 79-83 with a major lack of power in the lineup will need more.
What about the Cubs? Chicago was a surprise postseason contender, though ultimately falling just short of an NL Wild Card berth. Will the North Siders bring Bellinger back? He was, after all, a major driving force behind their success in 2023. Right-hander Marcus Stroman is also a free agent -- will Chicago try to land a frontline starter?
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The Orioles are another surprise team from 2023, one that had much more success than the Cubs -- Baltimore won 101 games and its first AL East title since 2014. But while the O’s have added veteran reliever Craig Kimbrel to the bullpen, they could still use a front-of-the-rotation starter. Will they make a move in that direction?
Another AL East team with vacancies to fill is the Blue Jays. While Toronto has re-signed center fielder Kevin Kiermaier and made a few other relatively small moves, the list of key players the Jays could lose in free agency is long -- it includes Chapman, Hyun Jin Ryu, Brandon Belt, Whit Merrifield and Jordan Hicks.
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There are others. The defending World Series champion Rangers have been fairly quiet, as have the AL Central champion Twins, who lost two starting pitchers to free agency when Sonny Gray signed with the Cardinals and Kenta Maeda inked a deal to join the Tigers.
5. Are the Dodgers done, or are there more additions ahead in their offseason of dreams?
The Dodgers are having one of the greatest -- if not the greatest -- offseasons in baseball history. They signed the most coveted free agent on the market, Ohtani, to the largest deal in sports history. Then they landed the most coveted pitcher on the market, Yamamoto. And that’s not even to mention their acquisition of Tyler Glasnow via trade with the Rays.
Even after committing $700 million to Ohtani, $325 million to Yamamoto and $135 million on a Glasnow contract extension, the Dodgers could still add more before calling it a winter. They’re reportedly interested in adding an outfielder and have even been linked to the premier closer on the free agent market, Josh Hader.
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The Dodgers have led the Majors in offseason activity so far, but as we enter a new calendar year, there is bound to be a flurry of Hot Stove action across baseball in the weeks to come.
With so many notable free agents still without a team for 2024, and with some intriguing names on the trade market, we could be in for quite a ride from here to Spring Training.