These free agents are risky, but the payoff could be huge

Every hot stove season, there are certain free agents who are wild cards of sorts, with the potential to produce great returns on investment for the clubs that sign them, or, on the other hand, the potential to struggle and make their contracts seem regrettable in hindsight.

This offseason, there are several intriguing names that fall into this “high-risk/high-reward” category. The list is headlined by none other than the reigning National League Cy Young Award winner and includes a former NL MVP, a perennial 30-homer threat and a pair of All-Star pitchers.

Here’s a look at five free agents who might be risky, but who also might be worth the risk.

Blake Snell, LHP
Snell had a fantastic 2023 campaign that earned him his second career Cy Young Award. He led the Majors with a 2.25 ERA and a 182 ERA+, striking out 31.5 percent of the batters he faced. But Snell also walked 13.3 percent of opposing hitters, and his 99 walks led MLB.

The left-hander has also been inconsistent throughout his career. Between his Cy Young Awards in 2018 and ’23, Snell had a 3.85 ERA (104 ERA+) over four seasons. He has also thrown more than 130 innings in a season just twice in his career -- the years he won his Cy Young Awards.

For the type of contract he’ll likely command this offseason, the risk-reward factor here is high.

Best case: Snell continues to walk the tightrope with great success, issuing free passes at a high rate and yet getting the desired results with a high strikeout percentage and a high left-on-base percentage (86.7 percent last season). He keeps himself firmly in the conversation for another Cy Young Award.

Worst case: What seems like an unsustainable trend -- walking a ton of batters while still managing to be elite in the run-prevention category -- proves to be unsustainable. Snell’s walk rate comes back to bite him and he regresses to the pitcher he was from 2019-22, far from the frontline ace the team with whom he signed was hoping for when inking him to a big contract.

Cody Bellinger, CF/1B
Bellinger’s career started off like a rocket -- he was voted the 2017 NL Rookie of the Year and the 2019 NL MVP while with the Dodgers. Then the slugging center fielder’s offensive production began cratering. Over the next three seasons, he hit just .203/.272/.376, leading many to wonder whether his best was behind him.

Then Bellinger joined the Cubs on a one-year contract in 2023, and he had a big bounceback season that earned him NL Comeback Player of the Year honors. He posted an .881 OPS with 26 home runs and 20 steals in 130 games for Chicago, reviving hopes that he still has more left in the tank.

The numbers were great, but there are some underlying quality of contact metrics that may be cause for concern. His 31.4 percent hard-hit rate was the lowest of his career, as was his 6.1 percent barrel rate. The result was an actual batting average (.307) that was 39 points above his expected batting average. The gap between his actual and expected slugging percentage was 56 points.

Best case: Bellinger proves that 2023 was no fluke, and that he’s truly back. He launches 35-40 homers and his slugging is backed up by his quality of contact metrics, which approach something closer to his batted ball profile from 2019 (a hard-hit rate north of 45 percent and a barrel rate north of 12 percent).

Worst case: The quality of contact remains about the same, with Bellinger’s actual numbers regressing and closing the gap with his expected stats. He becomes a league-average hitter (or worse) after signing a large contract based on one season of excellent production.

Rhys Hoskins, 1B
Hoskins emerged as a perennial 30-homer threat with the Phillies. He owns a career slugging percentage of .492 and early in his career, he demonstrated a very good eye at the plate, leading the NL with 116 walks in 2019.

Unfortunately, after helping the Phillies reach the World Series in 2022, Hoskins tore his left ACL during Spring Training and missed the entire ’23 campaign. Will he be the same Hoskins as he was before the injury? Will his knee enable him to generate the same type of power? And what about the walk rate? It fell from 16.5 percent in ’19, to 10.6 percent from 2021-22.

Best case: The knee is 100 percent throughout the 2024 season, and Hoskins proves to be the same guy he was at the plate before the injury. His walk rate creeps back up, too, and he finishes with an OPS above .850.

Worst case: Hoskins’ knee is balky and he spends a large chunk of the season on the injured list. He just can’t get going at the plate, enduring a power outage because he can’t fully generate power from his lower half. It all results in a lost first season with his new team and major questions about his potential moving forward.

Lucas Giolito, RHP
Giolito has been on a rollercoaster ever since he made his MLB debut with the Nationals in 2016. He was soon thereafter traded to the White Sox, where he has at times been a Cy Young Award candidate and other times led the league in categories like earned runs, home runs and walks.

The 16th overall pick in the 2012 Draft, Giolito's first full big league season was a struggle. He posted a 6.13 ERA while leading the Majors with 118 earned runs allowed and leading the AL with 90 walks issued. The next season, he was outstanding, pitching to a 3.41 ERA with a 32 percent strikeout rate.

Giolito pitched well from 2019-21, but over the past two seasons, his ERA was 4.89. Which Giolito will we see in 2024 and beyond?

Best case: Giolito pitches his way back into the Cy Young Award conversation. But this time, he figures things out and is able to consistently perform at a high level over a longer period. Still just 29 years old, he becomes a perennial All-Star for the life of his contract.

Worst case: Three good seasons is all Giolito is able to produce, and the pitcher we saw in 2018, and again from 2022-23, is who he remains on the mound. He consistently posts ERAs above 4.00, and he's unable to do much more than serve as a reliable innings-eater.

Aroldis Chapman, LHP
Overall, Chapman had a strong season in 2023, his 14th in the Majors (3.09 ERA, 41 percent strikeout rate). But when you look under the hood, it gets a little dicey, particularly after his midseason trade from Kansas City to Texas. His ERA jumped more than a run with the Rangers, and he was particularly erratic in the postseason.

Entering his age-36 campaign, it’s fair to wonder whether the velocity on his fastball and the bite to his secondary offerings will remain as effective, not to mention whether his relative inability to find the strike zone consistently will come back to bite him in 2024 and beyond.

Chapman's final month or so of the regular season and his performance in the playoffs raised some red flags. He posted a 6.23 ERA, blew two saves and took three losses over his final 14 regular-season outings before walking five and giving up seven hits in eight innings in the postseason.

Best case: Chapman continues to put up elite whiff and strikeout rates while maintaining his reputation for being "effectively wild." He posts an ERA under 2.00 and proves to be a lights-out setup man or closer, depending on where he signs. Another year of mileage on his arm doesn’t diminish his stuff.

Worst case: High-leverage situations become a disaster for Chapman. The walk rate (15.6 percent from 2021-23) goes even higher, and while he continues to strike out batters at a very high clip, it’s the free passes combined with what has been an elevated barrel rate and decreasing left-on-base percentage the past couple of years that leads to hard times for Chapman in Year 15.