Gunnar or Witt? The case for each ASG finalist

By David Adler | June 30, 2024

Phase 2 of 2024 All-Star Game voting is open, and one race stands out as the most compelling on the All-Star Ballot: Gunnar Henderson vs. Bobby Witt Jr.

These are two game-changing shortstop phenoms and two of MLB's brightest young superstars, Henderson leading the way for the Orioles and Witt for the Royals. Now they'll duke it out for their first career All-Star start as the AL finalists at short.

Look at the stats each of them have put up this season:

Both of them are All-Star-caliber. Both are MVP-caliber. But only one can win the vote.

Here's the case for Henderson vs. the case for Witt. (All stats below are entering play Sunday.)

THE CASE FOR HENDERSON

1. He might be the most valuable player in baseball, period

Henderson leads the Major Leagues in Wins Above Replacement, the all-encompassing estimate of a player's value. He's above even Aaron Judge -- and a clear step above fellow first-half MVP candidates Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto … and Witt.

Henderson ranks No. 1 in both of the major versions of WAR, one provided by Baseball Reference, the other by FanGraphs. He has 6.1 bWAR and 6.1 fWAR, a huge WAR total to amass by this point in the season.

A 6 WAR player over a full season is a star-level MLB player. (Last year, when Henderson was the unanimous AL Rookie of the Year and finished eighth in AL MVP voting, his full-season totals were 6.2 bWAR and 4.7 fWAR.) For Henderson to get there before the All-Star break in 2024 -- and stay ahead of Judge and his 30 home runs -- is "best player in baseball" territory.

Witt, by the way, is nothing to sneeze at here. He's a top-five player in the Majors by WAR. (Witt ranks fifth in fWAR with 4.6 and sixth in bWAR with 4.3.) But if you want to weigh WAR into your All-Star Ballot, Henderson is the top of the class at shortstop.

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2. His hitting stats are a class above Witt's

Both Witt and Henderson are exceptional all-around players: star hitters with dynamic power/speed combos who also play superb defense at shortstop. They both stand out in every facet of the game.

But if you're really breaking down a tale of the tape in each of those areas -- hitting, speed, defense -- the biggest edge to be found between the two players might be Henderson's overall hitting stat line over Witt's.

Witt is the .300 hitter, but Henderson has the 1.000 OPS. His OPS is more than 100 points higher than Witt's.

Henderson's OPS+, which adjusts every hitter's OPS to compare him to league average, is 187. That means he's 87% better than a league-average hitter this season. Witt's is 147 -- which is great … but it's not Henderson's.

And then there's, simply, the home runs. Henderson's home run power has dwarfed Witt's this season. He even has an outside chance to set the record for first-half home runs by a shortstop. Only one shortstop has ever hit more homers before the All-Star break than the 26 Henderson has right now, and it's Alex Rodriguez (30 in 2007 with the Yankees, 27 in 1998 with the Mariners and 2002 with the Rangers).

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3. He's the catalyst for one of the best teams in baseball

The Orioles are one of the clear top dogs in MLB -- they're jockeying with the Yankees, Guardians, Phillies and Dodgers for the best record in baseball -- and Henderson is the spark that ignites the O's entire offense.

First of all, batting at the top of the Baltimore order, Henderson leads the Majors with 72 runs scored. (Witt is fifth, with 63 runs.) But that's not the most impressive Henderson leadoff stat. The most impressive is the leadoff home runs.

Henderson has eight leadoff homers this season. That's the most in MLB, just ahead of his Phillies counterpart, Kyle Schwarber (seven). The single-season record is 13, set by Alfonso Soriano with the Yankees in 2003.

We've seen other great leadoff hitters challenge that mark in recent seasons, like Mookie Betts in 2023, Jose Altuve in 2022 and George Springer in 2019, who all finished one shy. Henderson could be next up. Oh, and the Orioles are 7-1 in the games Henderson hits a leadoff homer.

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THE CASE FOR WITT

1. He might be the most electric player in baseball

The way Witt truly stands out is how his combination of an elite bat and elite speed can change the game. Even Henderson might not be able to match the sheer electricity of Witt.

The All-Star Game is a showcase of baseball's must-watch talent, after all. And that's exactly what Witt is.

First: He's the fastest player in the Majors in 2024. Witt is at the top of Statcast's sprint speed leaderboard, and he's one of only four players whose speed is above the "elite" threshold of 30-plust feet per second.

Fastest players by avg. sprint speed, 2024

MLB avg. sprint speed: 27 ft/sec. Elite sprint: 30+ ft/sec.

Witt also leads all players with 756 "bolts" -- individual runs with an elite sprint speed. The next-closest players are De La Cruz and Jeremy Peña, with 45 runs at 30-plus ft/sec. That reflects how often Witt can use his top-of-the-scale speed to impact a game, in a way most players can't.

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Witt's raw speed translates into tons of exciting plays -- especially because of how good of a hitter he is. He leads the American League with 104 hits, and is just a few shy of Luis Arraez for the Major League lead. If those hits are ripped into the gap, there's no stopping Witt from taking extra bases. If they're singles, he's going to steal.

Witt's 22 stolen bases rank second in the AL and fourth in the Majors. His eight triples rank second in the Majors behind only Boston's Jarren Duran. Witt flies around the bases. On his fastest triple of the year so far -- a game-tying triple in the ninth inning on June 7 against the Mariners -- Witt took just 10.98 seconds to go from home to third. Only Corbin Carroll has recorded a faster triple this season.

Witt turns it on in those situations, when it matters most. He's batting .310 with a 1.027 OPS, two home runs, two triples and five stolen bases in "late and close" situations (seventh inning or later with his team either tied, ahead by one or trailing but with the tying run at least on deck).

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2. His quality of contact is even better than Henderson's

There's no arguing that Henderson's hitting stat line is better than Witt's for the season. But that only tells part of the story.

Witt has been ripping the ball all year, and his underlying quality-of-contact metrics are even better than Hendrerson's.

Witt's expected batting average, based on the exit velocity and launch angle of all his batted balls, is .319. That's fourth-best in the Majors, behind only Shohei Ohtani, Steven Kwan and Luis Arraez. Henderson's is .291.

Witt actually outranks Henderson in all three of Statcast's key expected stats -- expected batting average, expected slugging percentage, and the overall stat expected wOBA.

It's a small edge to Witt, but it's an edge.

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3. His five-tool skill set makes this a tossup

Witt and Henderson can both do it all. And Witt being a five-tool star is really what makes the All-Star race between him and Henderson so interesting.

This season, Witt has the small edge in contact hitting (the .307 batting average and .317 xBA). Henderson has the edge in power (the 26 home runs and 1.000 OPS). Witt has the edge in speed (the 22 stolen bases, the 30.5 ft/sec sprint speed).

The two are basically a wash in arm strength (both in the upper tier for infielders). And Witt has the edge with the glove. He's tied for second among all MLB fielders with +12 Outs Above Average this season, behind only Marcus Semien and tied with Michael Siani, and is tops among all shortstops. Henderson isn't far behind at +7 OAA. But Witt's become one of the best defensive shortstops in baseball, and that's powered his emergence as one of the best players in baseball in 2024.

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Statcast has a batting run value, baserunning value and fielding run value for every player -- their runs created via hitting and baserunning, and their runs prevented with their defense. Combine the three, and Witt and Henderson's overall run values for 2024 are nearly identical.

Henderson is at a +28 run value. Witt is at a +21 run value.

So who should start the All-Star Game at shortstop? Pick your favorite.

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