Guardians' biggest need entering Winter Meetings

This story was excerpted from Mandy Bell’s Guardians Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

There is so much that’s unknown about what will become of the 2024 Guardians. Will the organization have much wiggle room for payroll? Cleveland seemed optimistic that last winter would result in a payroll increase (which it did), but the vibes this offseason haven’t quite been the same. The Guardians haven’t specified what their expectations are financially for ’24, but the front office already said it wasn’t able to commit the necessary resources to keeping starter Cal Quantrill through the arbitration process. He was projected to make $6.5 million. Payroll will always be the biggest question facing the Guardians every year, but there are still plenty more to figure out for ’24. Are they contenders? Do they need a season to figure out which young players will be able to blossom over the next few years? Can they trade for a bat? These are the types of questions that may take a little time to answer, but the Guardians can certainly get the ball rolling in Nashville, Tenn., this week at the Winter Meetings. Here’s everything you need to know as they get underway.

Key events
• Today: HOF Contemporary Era ballot results released (Cito Gaston, Davey Johnson, Jim Leyland, Ed Montague, Hank Peters, Lou Piniella, Joe West and Bill White)
• Tuesday: Draft Lottery
• Wednesday: Rule 5 Draft

Club needs
This is plain and simple: A bat. And maybe another bat. The young pitching core that the Guardians got to witness firsthand this past year gave everyone enough confidence that the rotation is in good hands for the foreseeable future. With great pitching, it’s hard to ever truly be out of a division race. If the pitching is set and the defense is solid, the offense will need a face lift to have better results in ’24. Guys like José Ramírez and Josh Naylor are great to have in the heart of the order, but they can only do so much. The offense finished last in homers and second to last in slugging percentage in the Majors this season. Not only do they need someone who can consistently put the ball in play, but this lineup needs power. Without a notable addition, it’s hard to envision a big leap forward from ’23 to ’24.

Potential trade candidates
Aside from Ramírez, no one is ever truly off the table. But when it comes to the likeliest to be moved, all eyes will be on starter Shane Bieber. Assuming other organizations still value him highly because of his results, consistency and an AL Cy Young Award in his back pocket, he may be Cleveland’s best chance of getting an impactful, Major League ready bat. If that trade value has dipped (whether it be because his underlying numbers have trended in the wrong direction, his velocity has gone down over the past few years or his recent right elbow troubles that sidelined him for two months in the second half of the season), the Guardians will have to come up with a backup plan. The rumors have already begun swirling that closer Emmanuel Clase may be on the trading block. So again, no one is truly off the table.

Prospect to know
The biggest prospect to know heading into 2024 is first baseman Kyle Manzardo. As much as Cleveland still needs to find some external offensive help, if Manzardo can hit the way he has in the past and the way he did in the Arizona Fall League this year, the No. 2 Guardians prospect could be a critical new addition to the lineup. Assuming he has a healthy and relatively decent spring, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Manzardo on the Opening Day roster. It will also be important to keep an eye on Juan Brito, Angel Martínez, Brayan Rocchio and José Tena. These are all middle infielders who are on the 40-man roster. Although Gabriel Arias seems to be the favorite to win the starting shortstop job, these guys will all be in the mix in Spring Training and could get an opportunity in the big leagues at some point in the near future.

Rule 5 Draft
The Guardians protected right-hander Daniel Espino, outfielder Johnathan Rodríguez and right-hander Cade Smith from the Rule 5 Draft, leaving infielder Aaron Bracho, right-hander Tanner Burns, right-hander Mason Hickman, first baseman/outfielder Micah Pries and infielder Daniel Schneemann exposed.

The Guardians have found success in the Rule 5 Draft as recently as three offseasons ago with Trevor Stephan. And although the club entered the Winter Meetings with an open roster spot, it still seems unlikely that Cleveland will make a selection in this year’s Rule 5 Draft. If it does, it’s easiest to assume that bullpen depth would be the least risky addition to make.

Burning question
Will they trade Bieber? We talked about the complicated situation the Guardians find themselves in with their star pitcher earlier this week. If they can’t trade Bieber for an impact bat, then they have to figure out which other player on the roster would demand a high return. This is why Clase’s name has already been involved in trade rumors. But as we stated in that article and at the beginning of this Winter Meetings preview, the Guardians have many more questions to answer than just that. The other important one is: Are they contenders? If so, they really need to figure out who they can trade if Bieber doesn’t have high enough value. If they’re leaning toward rebuilding (which they haven’t done in the last handful of seasons), then the pressure may be a little less.