Guardians' pitching shines, offense stumbles in 2023

This story was excerpted from Mandy Bell’s Guardians Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

This wasn’t the way 2023 was supposed to pan out.

Every year, each club that sits at home, watching the postseason on television, says the same thing. But for the Guardians, this disappointing season may sting a little bit more.

The stage seemed to be set for something special. The youngest team in baseball in 2022 took the nation by surprise, forcing its way into the postseason with scrappy and gritty play. But the favorite to reclaim the AL Central title ended up finishing third in the division with a 76-86 record -- manager Terry Francona’s second losing season in Cleveland.

“I think if you if you remember back to Spring Training, I think I said we’d have to play better to maybe have the same record [as ‘22],” Francona said. “All those come-from-behind wins, they're great traits and characteristics about guys and never want to take that away from them. But you also don't do that every year. And we didn't this year.”

Let’s take a moment to look back:

Defining moment: Trade Deadline
The true defining moment came at the beginning of August, when the Guardians shipped Aaron Civale to the Rays and Josh Bell to the Marlins just before the Trade Deadline expired. Amed Rosario was traded to the Dodgers a week before. That shook up the clubhouse, especially since he was José Ramírez’s best friend, but it was expected. Bell didn’t contribute in the way the team had hoped on the field, but he was a veteran presence in the clubhouse.

But losing Civale, who had just experienced his best month on the rubber leading up to the Deadline and had been a staple in the clubhouse for five seasons, was the hardest for the team to swallow. The frustration of a squad that was still within reach of the first-place Twins was palpable and that night, the Guardians were no-hit by the Astros. It was a tremendous tone-setter of what was to come in the final weeks of the season.

What we learned: They’re close
It’s hard to focus on the positives in the middle of a disappointing year, but there were plenty of indications to prove that this team isn’t that far away from being competitive again. If all goes to script, the rotation could be excellent. More offensive production should be coming from first base and catcher to support what this team has gotten from third base. If the Guardians can figure out how to add to their offseason and shore up their bullpen, this roster could quickly be back in contention in 2024.

Best development: Rotation
Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams and Logan Allen. These guys were the brightest of all points from the ’23 season.

Allen pitched to a 3.81 ERA with 119 strikeouts and 48 walks in 125 1/3 innings this year. With some improvement on his efficiency, he could be a solid No. 3 or 4 starter. Williams seems to just be scratching at the surface of what he could fully become, owning a 3.29 ERA with 81 strikeouts in 82 innings with potential to reach triple-digits on his heater. And Bibee made as convincing of a Rookie of the Year case as any first-year pitcher in the Majors this season. He posted a 2.98 ERA with 141 strikeouts, 45 walks and a 1.18 WHIP.

Area for improvement: Offense/power
This was the area the team needed to improve upon last year. It continues to be the biggest problem. Here’s a breakdown of how the Cleveland offense stacked up against the 29 other clubs in some key categories:

Homers: 30th, 124 (Next closest team hit 151)
Slugging percentage: 29th, .381
Runs scored: 27th, 662
wRC+: 22nd, 92

The Guardians need to figure out how to score more runs. Having any type of bat that can plate a run in a clutch situation is necessary. But Cleveland also needs to find more power. This offense has tried to work around it for the last two seasons and while it was more successful in doing so in ’22 than ’23, it’s not the ideal setup moving forward.

On the rise: Bo Naylor
The final month of the regular season is the version of Bo Naylor that the Guardians desperately need. He got off to a slow start after he was called up in June, but the organization expected that given the number of things that were being thrown at him behind the dish. As he continued to settle into the Major League routine, his bat started to show the potential the Guardians have been looking for. In September, Bo Naylor hit .304 with a 1.052 OPS, four homers, five doubles, 13 RBIs, 14 walks and 10 strikeouts in 19 games.

Team MVP: Josh Naylor
So often this answer is Ramírez, and while he certainly was still a critical piece for Cleveland’s offense once again this season, it was Josh Naylor who was the difference maker. That became glaringly evident when he was sidelined for over a month in the second half of the season with an oblique strain, leaving a tremendous void in the lineup. Naylor hit .308 with an .842 OPS, 17 homers and 97 RBIs in 121 games. His presence emerged as such a threat this season that he became the ideal protection to slot in the lineup behind Ramírez -- the role the team assumed Bell would fill and couldn’t.