Guardians at a crossroads after series loss vs. Tigers

CLEVELAND -- Entering play on July 28, the Guardians’ playoff hopes were much different than they are today.

Then, Cleveland sat just 1 1/2 games behind the first-place Twins. It had a winning record at 52-51. Even at that time, this roster didn’t seem like a squad that could go the distance. But the American League Central title was still well within reach.

Now, after a rocky weekend that resulted in three losses in four games against the Tigers, capped by a 4-1 loss on Sunday afternoon at Progressive Field, the Guardians own a 59-66 record and sit six games behind the Twins (65-60). The third-place Tigers (57-67) are just 1 1/2 games behind Cleveland.

“There are days [where] it feels like [a heated race],” Guardians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti said before Sunday's game. “[But] there are days where we recognize that we have a long way to continue to build to where we want to be as a championship team. Admittedly, we certainly haven’t done our part yet to put ourselves in a position to make it feel that way. But I’m not sure the Twins have either.”

So let’s go back 23 days to July 28. Cleveland had just traded shortstop Amed Rosario to free up roster space for Gabriel Arias, Tyler Freeman and eventually Brayan Rocchio to get more playing time. That made sense, considering the team knew Rosario wouldn’t be in its long-term picture after he hit free agency this offseason. The Guardians needed to learn about their other internal options, continuing their constant balance competing now while planning for the future.

But then the Guardians traded away their hottest starter, Aaron Civale. The next day, Josh Bell was sent to Miami. Neither move should’ve been enough to take this club from a potential playoff team to a non-contender. Civale had a great July and was a much-needed veteran presence for a young rotation, but the starting five went on to thrive even after his departure. Bell may be finding more success with the Marlins, but he struggled to do that with Cleveland. Both of these moves helped plan for 2024, but in doing so, it was clear the clubhouse was rattled.

We remember how Antonetti and general manager Mike Chernoff flew to Houston the day after the Deadline to allow players to have discussions with them regarding the moves. Veteran staples in that room were shipped away as the club was trying to muster the special energy it had in 2022 to come alive in August. Whether these decisions ruffled too many feathers to allow that same spark to ignite will never be known. But the play since this time has certainly dipped.

Entering Sunday, the Guardians had the fourth-worst record in the Majors since July 28 (7-14), ahead of only the Angels (7-15), A’s (6-13) and Yankees (6-15). It didn’t get better on Sunday, as Cleveland lost the season series against Detroit, despite still having three games left on the schedule against its division foe. It marks the first time the Guardians have lost a season series to the Tigers since 2015.

The rotation hasn’t been a problem for the Guardians. Entering Sunday, Cleveland had the best rotation ERA since the All-Star break (2.93), and even with the bullpen ERA added in, it was the fifth-best mark in the Majors since July 28 (3.42). But in that span, the club averaged just 3.1 runs per game, which is 30th in MLB. On Sunday, the Guardians pushed one run across on a Ramón Laureano single.

“I think we go through periods of -- every team does -- [when] you’re trying to hit everything,” Guardians manager Terry Francona said. “We got in that mode a little bit.”

The hurdles this roster had to overcome were established long before the Trade Deadline. When the Guardians still sat around .500 at the end of July, it was clear it would be difficult for them to compete. It was more clear when the team continued to struggle against AL Central opponents, considering it's been the least competitive division in the Majors. The Guardians are just 18-21 against the Central.

It was apparent that it would be difficult for the Guardians to duplicate 2022 after the first half of the season, but it was harder to accept on July 28, when Cleveland sat just 1 1/2 games out of first place. Now, as the Twins’ lead grows larger, the reality of the Guardians' situation may start setting in.