Where the Cole market stands right now

SAN DIEGO -- The first major domino of the Winter Meetings fell Monday when the Nationals inked Stephen Strasburg to a seven-year, $245 million contract. Will Gerrit Cole follow suit?

According to industry insiders, there is an increasing expectation that Cole -- the crown jewel of this year’s free-agent market -- will sign before the end of the Meetings on Thursday.

• MLB Free Agent & Hot Stove Tracker

Cole’s primary suitors appear to be the Yankees and Angels, though the Dodgers remain in the mix. The Dodgers are interested in both Cole and third baseman Anthony Rendon, and while many believe Rendon is their primary target, a source said that the team is quite serious about Cole, as well.

There had been speculation that the Yankees planned to make their initial bid to Cole with a seven-year, $245 million offer, though Strasburg’s deal for that amount all but assures that Cole will receive far more, with $300 million now standing as the likely floor for any deal.

Cole, 29, is two years younger than Strasburg, so a nine- or 10-year deal is most certainly in play now that Strasburg signed through age 38. Cole is expected to set new records for both total guaranteed money and average annual value for a pitching contract, both of which were established Monday by Strasburg.

The market is moving

Things have changed in the year since the free-agent market slowed to a crawl, as we’ve already seen four players (Strasburg, Zack Wheeler, Yasmani Grandal and Mike Moustakas) sign deals worth more than $60 million. That’s the same number from the entire 2018-19 offseason.

So why the change?

For starters, the top free agents haven’t had to establish markets for their services. Although Manny Machado and Bryce Harper ultimately landed deals worth at least $300 million last offseason, it took time for their respective agents to find the teams willing to dole out that kind of money. Neither player signed until February.

Cole, Strasburg and Rendon had multiple suitors from the beginning of free agency, all of whom knew from the start what type of contracts each was seeking. In the case of Cole and Strasburg, this makes perfect sense, as there will usually be more demand for a starter than a position player, since every team can always use more pitching. Agent Scott Boras -- who represents all three -- didn’t need to spend much time selling his clients to teams, allowing the process to be accelerated.

Boras was asked Monday whether there had been a chance that Strasburg was going to leave Washington, the questioner noting that the negotiations “took a while.” Boras, well aware of his reputation for dragging out his clients’ free-agent process, joked, “Took a while? I don't know where you've been the last two years, but this is like the beginning of the summer for me.”

Now Boras can grab his sunscreen and head back out into the summer sun as he attempts to pull off a daily double few believed was possible any more at the Winter Meetings.

Cole offer imminent?

The Yankees were reportedly set to make their initial offer to Cole on Monday night, officially jump-starting the next phase of negotiations. Three executives said Monday they believe Cole will wind up signing with New York, which appears determined to pay whatever it must in order to top its rotation with the right-hander from Southern California. That was the case 11 years ago with another West Coast ace, and general manager Brian Cashman put on the full-court press to successfully sign CC Sabathia.

Rendon’s deal might take a little longer, as multiple teams -- including the Phillies, Braves, Rangers and Nationals -- remain in the mix, while Josh Donaldson provides a third-base alternative that simply doesn’t exist on the starting-pitching market now that Strasburg is back with Washington.

Madison Bumgarner has his own crop of suitors, with a potential bidding war brewing between the Twins, Reds, White Sox and Cardinals. But the three teams trying to land Cole don’t necessarily view Bumgarner as an equivocal Plan B, while some Rendon suitors believe Donaldson can provide similar production with a shorter financial commitment.

Strasburg’s deal sent shock waves through the Winter Meetings on Monday. Will Cole do the same before the baseball world leaves San Diego? This show might just be getting started.