Williams' mixed outing defines rotation's questions down the stretch

CLEVELAND -- For the second straight game, the length and quality of the Orioles’ young lineup was evident. But for the second straight game, the lack of consistent length and quality coming from the Guardians’ rotation was also evident.

Like No. 9 prospect Joey Cantillo a night earlier, Gavin Williams was unable to harness the AL East-leading O’s in a 9-5 loss on Sunday afternoon at Progressive Field. Williams was roughed up for six runs in only four innings, surrendering homers to Jackson Holliday and Gunnar Henderson in a back-breaking fourth.

Connor Gillispie, freshly summoned from Triple-A Columbus, had to eat the final three innings in his big-league debut.

“It was an interesting outing from Gavin,” manager Stephen Vogt said. “I thought at times he looked really good and had his good stuff, and then at times he lost the command and left some pitches over the middle.”

The Guards have dealt with unevenness from their rotation all year. If there’s anything more surprising than them possessing MLB’s best record at this late stage of the season, it’s that the rotation -- a longtime organizational strength -- has not pointed them here.

While free-agent acquisition Ben Lively has turned out to be a godsend, Tanner Bibee has been terrific and the veteran Carlos Carrasco has, at the very least, been able to eat up way more innings than anybody anticipated, injuries and underperformance have compromised the starting group. And that volatility could pose the threat of burnout for one of the best bullpens in baseball if the situation doesn’t improve down the stretch.

Here are five rotation X-factors that could determine whether Cleveland can nail down the top spot in the AL Central and advance through October:

1. Bibee’s health
In his second season, Bibee has emerged as an ace for the group that lost Shane Bieber to elbow surgery in early April. So the shoulder soreness that scratched him from his start against the O’s this weekend was a disconcerting development.

But pitching coach Carl Willis said Bibee is making “forward progress.” The Guards hope to have Bibee back during next weekend’s four-game set at Minnesota.

2. Veteran reinforcements
That Twins series is also expected to contain the Guardians debut of Alex Cobb, the Trade Deadline acquisition who has yet to throw a pitch in the big leagues in 2024 because of recovery from hip surgery hampered by right shoulder irritation and then a blister issue. The 36-year-old Cobb, an All-Star in 2023, made what is likely his final rehab tune-up for Columbus on Saturday, allowing just a run on three hits with two walks and five strikeouts in 4 2/3 innings.

Then there’s the 33-year-old Matthew Boyd, another veteran value play who will bring a fresh (or is it rusty?) arm to the mix once he’s cleared to return to the big leagues. The Guardians signed Boyd in late June, one year after he had Tommy John surgery. Boyd is expected to take one more Minor League turn this week before the Guardians promote him.

What can the Guards get from these guys?

“Expectations are,” said Willis, “they're going to go out and not beat themselves, and that's a positive.”

3. Triston McKenzie’s improvement
A linchpin in the rotation in the Guards’ run to the 2022 ALDS, McKenzie dealt with injuries in 2023 and confidence issues while pitching with a compromised elbow in 2024, leading to a demotion.

The command issues hurting him in Cleveland had only worsened in Columbus, but McKenzie pitched six scoreless innings in the second game of a doubleheader on Saturday in which he allowed just four hits with three walks and 11 strikeouts.

“The fastball velocity was up,” Willis said. “So a lot of excitement in that regard. Now, it's one outing, so can you come out and repeat it? But steps forward certainly are always a positive thing.”

4. Williams’ trajectory
An elbow issue at the start of the season complicated the usual adjustments that were bound to come in Williams’ sophomore season. The results since his July 3 return have been a rollercoaster (4.91 ERA 1.48 WHIP in 33 innings), but Williams has only begun to get a feel for his slider.

“I think it’s back to where it was last year, maybe a little bit better,” he said. “Probably gonna start working on that a little bit more in games.”

5. Logan Allen’s return
Along with Bibee and Williams, Allen was in a troika of rookies in 2023 that had the rotation outlook pointed upward. But Allen’s sophomore setbacks (5.67 ERA in 18 outings) led to a July 7 demotion to Columbus, where he posted a 3.86 ERA in 16 1/3 innings across three starts.

The Guardians will recall Allen to make Monday’s start against the D-backs, so he’ll have a new opportunity to prove his belonging and, perhaps, help right a rotation in need of quality innings.