A budding young ace could be a huge Deadline get

It’s not often that a 24-year-old starting pitcher in the midst of a breakout season is made available leading up to the Trade Deadline. But with the White Sox reportedly looking to tear it all down and start anew, that’s exactly where Garrett Crochet finds himself.

Crochet, a hard-throwing left-hander who stands at 6-foot-6 and is controllable through 2026, had never started a game in the Majors before this season, but he has made a smooth transition to Chicago’s rotation. He’s looking like a foundational piece for the club, which is exactly what the White Sox expected when they selected him 11th overall in the 2020 Draft.

However, he might not be on the South Side of Chicago for much longer, with reports emerging that the White Sox are willing to trade everyone on their Major League roster -- Crochet included.

With the way he’s pitching, Crochet has the potential to be the biggest addition any team makes at this year’s Deadline.

Of course, it should be noted that the left-hander is already at his highest innings total in a season, college or professional, creating questions about how deep into this season he'll be able to go while still pitching at a high level. It's possible he'll need to be moved to the bullpen or even shut down to protect his left arm, on which he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2022.

Understandably, the White Sox are unlikely to factor that into their asking price. While Chicago is expected to shop outfielders Luis Robert Jr. and Tommy Pham and pitchers Erick Fedde and Michael Kopech as well, Crochet is easily the best trade chip for a team trying to replenish its talent pool.

The club will likely be looking for a package even better than the one it got from the Padres for 28-year-old righty Dylan Cease, who had two years of club control remaining when Chicago traded him this past March. That deal brought back one MLB Pipeline Top 100 prospect (pitcher Drew Thorpe) in addition to San Diego's No. 7 and No. 8 prospects at the time, as well as 29-year-old reliever Steven Wilson.

Crochet, though, might be worth it anyway, considering what he could do for a team's rotation beyond 2024.

As he prepares to make his 15th start of the year Thursday against the Mariners, he has been one of the best starters in MLB this season. (All stats below are through Tuesday.)

In fact, his expected ERA, a Statcast metric based on a pitcher’s strikeouts, walks and quality of contact allowed, is tops among pitchers who have faced at least 200 batters. He even outranks Tigers left-hander Tarik Skubal, the American League Cy Young Award frontrunner.

Lowest xERA, 2024
Minimum 200 batters faced

• 1. Garrett Crochet: 2.30
• 2. Tarik Skubal: 2.43
• 3. Tyler Glasnow: 2.57
• 4-T. Jack Flaherty: 2.61
• 4-T. Ranger Suárez: 2.61

But perhaps even more impressive is how he's gotten there, combining three of the most important elements for a successful MLB starter:

1. He’s pounding the strike zone: Crochet has the ninth-highest zone rate (54.5%) among starters, minimum 750 pitches (123 qualifying SP).

2. He’s missing bats in the zone: Crochet is tied for the ninth highest in-zone whiff rate (23.6%) among starters, minimum 200 swings on in-zone pitches (140 qualifying SP).

3. He’s getting swings outside the zone: Crochet has the 30th highest chase rate (30.5%) among starters, minimum 400 out-of-zone pitches thrown (118 qualifying SP).

The list of starters who can do all three of those things at a high level isn't long. Only four starters rank among the top 30 on all three lists: Chris Sale, Jared Jones, Skubal and Crochet.

Add it all up, and Crochet has struck out 34.3% of the batters he's faced this season -- the second-highest mark in MLB (minimum 200 batters faced) behind Tyler Glasnow -- en route to an AL-leading 103 K’s in 75 2/3 innings. He also has a stellar 5.7% walk rate.

The lefty's four-seam fastball has been the star of his repertoire since he was drafted, and this year has been no exception.

Throwing the fastest four-seamer among left-handed starters (minimum 50 four-seamers thrown) at 96.8 mph, he has held opponents to a .150 batting average with a .256 SLG in 147 plate appearances ending on the pitch.

At the same time, Crochet has found more balance by introducing a nasty cutter. He's throwing it 24.4% of the time and has reduced his four-seam fastball usage to 53.7%, down from 65.5% prior to 2024.

It's been a great addition to his pitch mix, generating a 35.8% whiff rate and yielding a .235 average with a .333 SLG in 82 plate appearances.

With 47 strikeouts on four-seamers and 28 on cutters, Crochet has 75 combined fastball K's this season, the most in MLB by a wide margin.

Most strikeouts on fastballs, 2024
(4-seamers, sinkers and cutters combined)

• 75: Garrett Crochet
• 60: Zack Wheeler
• 57: Hunter Greene
• 56: Nestor Cortes
• 54: Luis Gil, Lance Lynn, Freddy Peralta

Crochet hasn't used his slider as much in 2024 (14.6%), but it's another strong putaway option in his tool kit. He has 20 K’s in 43 plate appearances ending on sliders, making him one of five pitchers to have 20-plus strikeouts on three different pitch types, along with Skubal, Glasnow, Corbin Burnes and Logan Gilbert.

While Crochet has allowed five homers and a .659 slugging percentage on sliders in 2024, it has the potential to be another elite offering.

To begin with, he gets a ton of horizontal movement with it -- nine inches more than an average slider, tied for the third most in MLB. In terms of Stuff+, a metric that rates pitches based on their physical characteristics, such as velocity and movement, Crochet’s slider ranks eighth overall (minimum 50 innings pitched).

Crochet’s expected stats on sliders this season also suggest he’s been fairly unlucky. His .155 expected BA and .342 expected SLG on sliders are both significantly better than his actual numbers on the pitch.

Crochet clearly has shown the stuff and makeup to be an ace for years to come. Whether that’s enough for a team to overlook the concerns about his 2024 workload and meet Chicago’s asking price remains to be seen.

In any case, the 24-year-old has unexpectedly emerged as one of this year's most intriguing trade candidates as we head toward the Deadline.