Analyzing the Crochet trade from all sides

The Red Sox and White Sox provided the biggest blockbuster of the offseason so far on Wednesday night when Boston acquired All-Star left-hander Garrett Crochet from Chicago in exchange for a significant prospect haul.

TRADE DETAILS
Red Sox get: LHP Garrett Crochet
White Sox get: C Kyle Teel (No. 25 overall prospect), OF Braden Montgomery (No. 54 overall), INF Chase Meidroth (BOS No. 11 prospect), Wikelman Gonzalez (BOS No. 14 prospect)

Here is a breakdown of this intriguing exchange from all angles, via MLB.com experts.

Why it makes sense for the Red Sox
Via Red Sox beat writer Ian Browne

The Red Sox were able to pull off the deal without subtracting anyone from the strong young core of their Major League roster, leaving the club with a robust stable of position players and now the front-line pitcher for the rotation that Breslow has coveted all winter.

Breslow had engaged in talks with the two lefties in the free-agent market in Blake Snell and Max Fried. After losing Snell to the Dodgers last week and Fried to the rival Yankees on Tuesday, the Red Sox responded with their big answer, one that won’t need a big financial commitment, at least off the bat. Crochet has two arbitration-eligible seasons left.

Though Crochet doesn’t have the extended track record of excellence Sale had eight years ago, the upside is comparable. The 25-year-old, who debuted in 2020, bounced back from Tommy John surgery in 2022 to become the bright light in a rough season for the White Sox.

Crochet was an All-Star for Chicago in 2024, his first year as a starting pitcher in the Majors. While pitching 146 innings -- the White Sox had him on a pitch count down the stretch -- Crochet had 209 strikeouts with just 33 walks. He had a 1.07 WHIP and averaged 12.9 strikeouts per nine innings. More >>

Why it makes sense for the White Sox
Via White Sox beat writer Scott Merkin

Crochet was arguably the best starting pitcher in the Majors at the 2024 All-Star break, and with one full year as a starter behind him and his innings restrictions lifted, he only figures to get better after 209 strikeouts over 146 innings and 32 starts.

So why trade the 25-year-old southpaw?

The White Sox had two years of contractual control over the rotation ace and team leader, and the club doesn't figure to be compete for a title during that time. General manager Chris Getz is leading a total rebuild for this organization, ranging from improving the infrastructure to the overall talent core, and this was a chance to get four players from among Boston’s Top 14 prospects, per MLB Pipeline.

Call it a rebuild accelerator.

“We'll get a better idea come Spring Training; some have more experience at Triple-A than others,” Getz said on Wednesday afternoon at the close of the Winter Meetings. “But we're talking about upper-level talent. We want these guys ready to go in Spring Training, competing for spots."

Teel (MLB's No. 25 overall prospect), who was part of the four-player return from Boston, and Edgar Quero (No. 59) give the White Sox two catchers in MLB Pipeline’s Top 60 overall, along with Korey Lee, who made great strides over the course of the 2024 season. The switch-hitting Montgomery could become one of the more dynamic young offensive players in the game. He's expected to be fully healthy in 2025 after a broken right ankle sustained in Texas A&M’s Super Regional loss to Oregon prevented him from making his professional debut last season.

It's a big picture look for Getz. It’s a trade benefitting both teams in terms of their immediate goals.

“This is a deal that was above what we could have gotten at the [2024 Trade] Deadline from our evaluations,” Getz said. “That, more or less, set the bar for us. It wasn’t met at the Deadline and we feel like we went past that. That’s why we went forward to make the decision to make the trade." More >>

Prospect profile
Via Jim Callis and MLB Pipeline

C Kyle Teel (No. 25 overall prospect)
Age: 22
Ht: 6’ 0” / Wt: 190 lbs.
Bats: L / Throws: R
Drafted: 1st round, 2023
MLB ETA: 2025

Scouting grades (on 20-80 scale): Hit: 55 | Power: 50 | Run: 45 | Arm: 60 | Field: 55 | Overall: 55

2024 stats
Double-A Portland: .298/.390/.462, 11 HR, 60 RBIs, 9 SB in 84 games
Triple-A Worcester: .255/.374/.343, 2 HR, 18 RBIs, 3 SB in 28 games

OF Braden Montgomery (No. 54 overall)
Age: 21
Ht: 6’ 2” / Wt: 220 lbs.
Bats: S / Throws: R
Drafted: 1st round, 2024
MLB ETA: 2027

Scouting grades (on 20-80 scale): Hit: 50 | Power: 60 | Run: 50 | Arm: 70 | Field: 50 | Overall: 55

In exchange for Crochet, the White Sox received two Top 100 Prospects in Teel and Montgomery (Boston's first-round picks in the last two Drafts), a high-floor guy in Meidroth and a lottery ticket with a high ceiling in Gonzalez.

Teel is one of the best catching prospects in the game, a disciplined hitter with 20-homer potential who also has solid receiving skills and a strong arm behind the plate. Montgomery has classic right-field tools with well-above-average raw power and plus-plus arm strength that delivered fastballs up to 96 mph when he pitched in college. In retrospect, Teel shouldn't have lasted until the 14th pick in the 2023 Draft, and Montgomery wouldn't have made it to No. 12 last July if he hadn't broken his right ankle on an awkward slide in the NCAA Super Regionals.

Meidroth, who has played all over the infield but is best suited for second base, is an on-base machine (he led the Triple-A International League with a .437 OBP), though he offers little power. Gonzalez can display a mid-90s fastball and a hammer curveball when he's on, and he led the Minors in strikeout rate (13.6 K's per nine innings) and percentage (35%) in 2023, but he regressed last season.

Hot Stove implications
Via senior national reporter Mark Feinsand

The first big pitching domino on the trade market fell on the final day of the Winter Meetings with the White Sox dealing Crochet to the Red Sox for four prospects.

Although none of the other potential trade candidates on the starting pitching market offer the same combination of talent and control -- both in terms of cost and years -- as Crochet, Boston’s trade should help spur some other clubs with available pitchers to get more aggressive.

Luis Castillo is signed for $68.25 million over the next three years, with a vesting option for 2028 if he throws 180 innings during the 2027 season. The Mariners are loaded with starting pitching and need a bat, making Castillo a logical contract to move to acquire an impact hitter.

Sonny Gray (Cardinals) is set to make $25 million in 2025 and $35 million in '26, with a $30 million club option for '27, though he has a full no-trade clause, adding a wrinkle into any potential deal.

Dylan Cease (Padres) and Framber Valdez (Astros) are arbitration-eligible for the final time this winter, meaning each is set to become a free agent next offseason. Jesús Luzardo (Marlins) is arbitration-eligible for two more years before becoming a free agent, though injuries have been an issue for him during his career.

The closest comps to Crochet are Clarke Schmidt and Luis Gil, two young Yankees starters who could be part of trade talks following New York’s agreement with Max Fried. Schmidt and Gil are under club control for three and four years, respectively, and the Yankees now have seven starting pitchers under contract.

Diving deep
Via national content editor Andrew Simon

As tempting as it can be to immediately declare a winner and a loser to any trade, sometimes a swap just makes sense for both sides. That’s the case here.

The Red Sox, after coming up short on both Juan Soto and Max Fried, desperately needed both a big splash and a top-of-the-rotation arm as they try to return to contention in the AL East. Crochet checks both boxes, and he instantly becomes Boston’s clear ace. FanGraphs projects him for 4.9 WAR in 2025, a huge upgrade for a Red Sox rotation that ranked 20th in projected WAR before this trade, led by Tanner Houck’s 2.9. This unit, which finished 15th in the Majors in K-rate last season (22.0%) now adds a pitcher who struck out 35.1% of batters, the highest rate in MLB (minimum 100 innings).

There is certainly quite a bit of risk here, because pitchers are risky in general. Crochet in particular already has a Tommy John surgery on his record and had never started a Major League game prior to this year. But the Red Sox were in a position where they needed to take a big swing, and giving up a significant prospect haul hurts them less than it would almost any other team. Even with two of MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 prospects changing their Sox, Boston still has four remaining in its system, including Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer and Kristian Campbell in the top 10 and nearing the Majors.

For a White Sox team trying to dig its way back from a 41-121 mess, though, Crochet’s two remaining seasons of club control did not line up with what is likely to be its next competitive window. The time was now to cash in those chips, especially given Crochet’s injury history and short (if impressive) track record of success.

Chicago elected to hold on to Crochet at the Trade Deadline, and that patience seemed to pay off here. For two seasons of Crochet, the White Sox landed a stellar, four-prospect package. Catchers who can contribute on both sides of the ball are one of the toughest commodities to find, and Teel has a chance to be just that, as soon as 2025. Montgomery was just the No. 12 pick in the Draft five months ago, and even that might undersell the ultra-talented switch-hitter, who was MLB Pipeline’s No. 8 Draft prospect but sustained a broken right ankle while playing for Texas A&M in the NCAA Super Regional.

Of course, prospects don’t always pan out. Look no further than the four players the White Sox acquired from the Red Sox for a different left-hander (Chris Sale), also at the Winter Meetings, almost exactly eight years ago. But at this point in time, Chris Getz and his front office needed to take their shot at jumpstarting a rebuild on the South Side, and this trade could be a big leap in that direction.