These stars might be MLB's next Triple Crown winner

MLB Network, launched on Jan. 1, 2009, is celebrating its 15th anniversary in 2024. Through Jan. 19, MLB Network will count down the top 15 moments it has covered in its history, via weeknight segments on MLB Tonight (6 p.m. ET), as well as across its social platforms. And don’t forget to catch MLB Network’s 15th Anniversary retrospective show -- “MLB Network Legendary Moments” presented by Budweiser, with Greg Amsinger, Sean Casey and Harold Reynolds -- scheduled for 7 p.m. ET on Monday, Jan. 22.

The No. 8 moment on the countdown: The 2012 American League MVP Award debate, which came down to Triple Crown winner Miguel Cabrera and young phenom Mike Trout.

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Trout registered 10.5 bWAR in his sensational rookie season. That far surpassed Cabrera's total (7.1), but most AL MVP voters sided with the Tigers' star after he became the first player in 45 years to lead their league in batting average (.330), home runs (44) and RBIs (139).

Ten players have won a Triple Crown since RBIs became an official statistic in 1920. It's a group featuring some of the very best hitters in baseball history, and Cabrera, who retired following the 2023 season, fits right in.

Who will become the next member of this elite club? The players below could be a Triple Crown winner, and we've separated them into three tiers: favorites, contenders and dark horses.

FAVORITES

Juan Soto, Yankees
Soto's career highs in homers and RBIs -- 35 and 110, respectively -- are a little below typical Triple Crown standards. No player has earned a Triple Crown with fewer than 114 runs driven in, and every full-season league leader in home runs since 1993 has bopped at least 36 dingers. But one should remember that Soto hasn't even played his age-25 season yet. He is just now entering what should be the prime of his career, already has one batting title under his belt and could showcase more power as he ages, although playing half of the 2024 season in Yankee Stadium may not be the best thing for his homer total.

Aaron Judge, Yankees
Soto's new teammate nearly won a Triple Crown in 2022. In what was already a historic year for Judge, he finished just five percentage points behind the Twins' Luis Arráez for the AL lead in batting average. Judge hasn't hit better than .287 in his seven other big league seasons, but his gargantuan power gives him an advantage in the other two Triple Crown categories. If he can push his contact rate back above 70%, as it was in 2021 and '22, Judge may become the third Yankee to achieve this feat (Lou Gehrig, Mickey Mantle).

Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers
Lest we forget that Ohtani was on Triple Crown watch as recently as this past August. He has never driven in more than 100 runs in a season, but joining the Dodgers should increase his RBI opportunities, even as he's likely to spend most of his time batting second. Triple Crown winners generally bat in the No. 3 or No. 4 hole, but we've seen a handful of players recently pace their league in RBIs while chiefly batting second. That includes the aforementioned Judge in 2022 (131 RBIs), Josh Donaldson in 2015 (123) and Mike Trout in 2014 (111). And since we know there's nothing Ohtani can't do on a baseball diamond, what's to stop the two-time unanimous MVP from adding a Triple Crown?

Yordan Alvarez, Astros
Alvarez has all of the makings of a Triple Crown candidate: A fearsome slugger with fantastic pure hitting ability who is 28 years old and locked into the middle of what has consistently been a top-10 scoring offense. After belting 37 homers in 2022, Alvarez homered 31 times in just 114 games last year. Meanwhile, he and Freddie Freeman are the only players to post an expected batting average of .300 or better in each of the past two seasons (min. 450 plate appearances).

CONTENDERS

Freddie Freeman, Dodgers
So why isn't Freeman in that top tier? He has reached 35 homers only once in his great career. And not to be ageist, but Freeman's birth date doesn't help his chances. Gehrig is the oldest Triple Crown winner; he was 31 during his amazing 1934 campaign. Freeman is entering his age-34 season. He owns a .324 average since the start of 2020 and should see a lot of runners on base while he brings up the rear in possibly the greatest lineup trio we've ever seen. With a boost in his power output, perhaps Freeman has a shot.

Corey Seager, Rangers
While Ohtani flirted with a Triple Crown last year, Seager, the AL MVP runner-up, might have been a real threat to win it if not for some injuries. He batted a career-best .327 with 33 home runs and 96 RBIs, but he spent 40 games on the injured list due to hamstring and thumb ailments. If you extrapolate those counting stats out to 162 games, Seager would have topped the AL with 45 dingers and 130 RBIs. It is tough to project a clean bill of health for Seager, who has played fewer than 140 games in four of the past five full seasons.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays
It's tempting to just look at Guerrero's stats from his MVP-worthy 2021 campaign -- .311 average, 48 homers, 111 RBIs -- and just say, "Well, if he can do that again .... " Unfortunately, he hasn't come close to those numbers since. Even as he continued to post stellar batted-ball metrics, Vlad Jr. had 26 homers, a .264 average and a .780 OPS in 156 games last year. There are many theories on what caused that drop in production but no definitive answers. However, Guerrero is only 24 years old, so, there is time for him to recapture his previous magic.

Bryce Harper, Phillies
Harper had one of those magical seasons in 2015, when he bashed an NL-best 42 homers and finished with a .330 average, three percentage points shy of a batting title. Six years after winning his first MVP Award, Harper garnered a second with 35 dingers and a .309 average in 2021. Although he has exceeded 100 RBIs only once in his 12-year career, his RBI outlook is helped by the Phillies' strong lineup. Plus, Citizens Bank Park should aid Harper's homer tally. The key for him will be his strike zone judgment; Harper's chase rate was near the 70th percentile in 2015 and '21. It was below the 25th percentile in each of the past two seasons, and he batted .290 during that span.

DARK HORSES

Ronald Acuña Jr., Braves; Mookie Betts, Dodgers
Barring a specific change, neither Acuña nor Betts will win a Triple Crown. That's not a bold prediction. The reason why is simple: Hitting leadoff caps your RBI opportunities. That's what happens when you are guaranteed at least one plate appearance per game with the bases empty. How many Triple Crown winners have batted first? None -- unless you want to count the one plate appearance that Gehrig and Mantle had out of the leadoff spot in 1934 and 1956, respectively. Betts set a record last year with 107 RBIs as a leadoff hitter (Acuña had 106). The last time a player led his league with 107 or fewer RBIs was 1984.

Acuña and Betts were the two best players in baseball last year by bWAR, and they might be the best players again in 2024. But a Triple Crown will remain out of their grasp for as long as they are leading off. And considering how stacked their lineups look on paper, why would the Braves or Dodgers change anything?

Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres; Julio Rodríguez, Mariners
Tatis and Rodríguez each spent 45 games batting leadoff last year, so they deal with some of the same limitations as the above star pairing. They have league-leading power; Tatis was atop the NL with 42 long balls in 2021, and J-Rod crushed 32 homers last year as a 22-year-old. However, even if these phenoms experience a full season hitting second or third in the lineup, they may never post a high enough batting average to be a real contender here because their whiff and chase rates are higher than most on this list.

Mike Trout, Angels
We've seen Trout put up incredible numbers even while missing substantial time due to injuries. For instance, he bopped 40 homers in just 119 games in 2022. He has three 40-homer campaigns on his ledger and five qualified seasons with a .300 or better average. But beyond Trout's injury risk, there might be another obstacle standing in his way to Triple Crown glory: the Angels' lineup. Ten of the 12 Triple Crown winners since 1920 played on teams that were among the top 10 in runs scored. The 2023 Angels, with Ohtani, ranked 16th in runs. While it is difficult to predict team production from year to year, it's fair to wonder if the 32-year-old Trout has enough around him to get triple-digit RBIs.

Paul Goldschmidt, Cardinals
Maybe Goldschmidt's Triple Crown window has slammed shut at the age of 36, but he deserves a spot in this discussion because it wasn't too long ago when he gave it quite a run. Goldschmidt entered the final month of the 2022 season with a .335 average, 33 dingers and 105 RBIs. A so-so September resulted in him finishing behind Jeff McNeil, Kyle Schwarber and Pete Alonso in those respective categories, but Goldy still came away with NL MVP honors.