Is it freak-out time for clubs that missed out at Meetings?

The Winter Meetings are over. The offseason is not. So although we just had a wild week in San Diego, it is not advisable to make any major declarations based off what did -- and did not -- get done at that high-visibility industry gathering.

But sometimes fans can’t help but get caught up in the drama of the Meetings. That’s why we present this special edition of the Freak Out Factor (FOF) -- our patented scale to help you determine how much you should be concerned about a given development.

The FOF works as follows: A 10 is a full-blown Freak Out, and a 1 is a call for calm. Away we go!

The Giants didn’t land Aaron Judge!
FOF: 3, or number of seasons Judge has played more than 112 games

By all accounts, the Giants put their best foot forward in the Judge sweepstakes, not just by matching the nine years, $360 million offer he took from the Yankees but in putting together a professional pitch that even included his childhood baseball hero Rich Aurilia.

It was all for naught, and, even after the Mitch Haniger signing, a Giants team that suffered a steep fall from grace in 2022 still has a lot of needs.

But as disappointing as the Judge decision was, there is a pretty realistic scenario in which the Giants come out better than they would have. The risks associated with the Judge deal, given his size and age and injury history, are well-documented, and the Giants might be better-served to expend those resources on multiple pieces. They certainly have what it takes to land Carlos Correa, a gifted star who, at 28, is plenty young enough to still invite dreams that he’ll reach his MVP potential at this next destination. Enticing pitchers are still out there, too. Or the Giants could play it safe this winter and put themselves in position to be the big-market club best-positioned to sign Shohei Ohtani a year from now.

So while Giants fans ought to be upset they didn’t land this giant, don’t overdo it with the tears and fears. This could all work out in the long run. We’ll let time be the judge (oh, sorry for using that word).

The Red Sox lost Xander Bogaerts!
FOF: 9, or where Bogaerts finished in AL MVP Award voting in 2022

What a bummer in Boston. Three years after the Mookie Betts trade, another homegrown hero is out the door. The Padres -- a team in one of the smallest media markets in MLB -- blew the Red Sox out of the water with their offer to the star shortstop, continuing a strange trend in which Boston is operating more like Tampa Bay North than the behemoth we know it to be.

But let’s emphasize, again, that the offseason is not over. At least the Red Sox are demonstrating their desire to climb out of the AL East cellar by signing Kenley Jansen and inking the interesting Masataka Yoshida.

(Don’t sleep on that Yoshida move. An NL scout intimate with Nippon Professional Baseball sent along this video of Yoshida going oppo and noted one of the blasts would have landed on the roof of the Cask ‘n Flagon. “He is going to pepper and go over the Monster,” the scout texted. “It is elite control of the zone. He can handle velocity. I think that wall will be something that fits him well.”)

The Red Sox really need to get a Rafael Devers extension done so that they don’t run into this issue again in a year. And they really need help in the rotation, behind the plate and in the heart of the lineup. For now, a not-quite-full Freak Out is acceptable.

The Dodgers are quiet!
FOF: 7.4, or Trea Turner’s WAR in 212 career games with the Dodgers

Between free agents and non-tendering Cody Bellinger, the Dodgers had more than $100 million come off the books since the end of the 2022 season. There was some thought that they might take advantage of it at the Meetings, perhaps by inking Justin Verlander or even making a late, earnest run at Judge.

Nope. The only new face the Dodgers added this week was Jason Heyward, on a Minor League deal. Not exactly blockbuster stuff.

What crystallized in the minds of many in the industry this week is how serious the Dodgers are about resetting their luxury tax penalties in 2023. They still have stars, and they have a wave of young talent that could impact them positively next season.

But with Trea Turner and Tyler Anderson among their departures, with Walker Buehler out for all or most of 2023, with Clayton Kershaw (back on yet another one-year deal) no lock to fend off Father Time and with L.A. seemingly abstaining from the top end of the free-agent market, the Dodgers might have a more difficult time defeating the Padres. And if the Giants do make some big moves and the D-backs, who had a 22-win improvement in 2022, fix their bullpen, the division will become more dynamic.

'Old' dudes are getting big deals!
FOF: 5, or how many contracts signed so far this offseason take a player to at least his age-39 season

As always, “old” is a relative term. And what it means to be “old” has evolved over time. In the so-called steroids era, there was hardly any such thing as old. Then the game cracked down on PEDs, and, in more recent years, anything over 30 became old and, in some cases, overlooked in free agency.

That’s what made the deals at and just before these Winter Meetings so striking. Turner and Bogaerts will be 41 in the last year of their deals, Judge and Jacob deGrom will be 39, José Abreu and Chris Martin will be 38. Verlander is already 39, and he got two years and $86.6 million!

It's good to see stars paid like stars and given the length to settle in and show their talents. And it’s worth noting that, in 2022, half of the guys who finished in the top 10 in FanGraphs WAR (Judge, Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, Freddie Freeman and Jose Altuve) were north of 30 (with two others, Manny Machado and Betts, having just turned 30).

But this trend will be a test of the theory that advancements in nutrition, training and recovery methods could redefine aging curves. For now, most available data suggests that these deals are massive, massive risks.

Where are the trades?!?
FOF: 10, just because we’re impatient

It’s hard to complain in the wake of this slew of signings that took place at the Winter Meetings. But trade activity is fundamentally more interesting (because it allows for analysis of what two or perhaps even three teams are up to and how they value certain players), and there has been a noticeable dearth of it this Hot Stove season.

At the Meetings, we had a few swaps involving relievers Joe Jiménez, Brooks Raley and Chad Smith. We’ve also seen deals involving Gio Urshela, Hunter Renfroe, Kyle Farmer and some others. But where’s the earth-shaker? Where’s that Sean Murphy swap? That Toronto catcher trade? That Pablo López pact? Give us a blockbuster barter!

And we know Bryan Reynolds agrees with us on this one, because he asked for a trade … of himself!