Let's freak out (or not) about these slow starts

April baseball, like so much contemporary art, is open to interpretation. The standings at this stage tell us everything and nothing. The stats are easily skewed, and therefore so are our feelings and fears. It can be difficult to know if the slow starters among us are doomed to a full season of strife or bound to bounce back.

That’s why we have the Freak Out Factor, our patented system serving frustrated fans with the information they need to take the measure of the moment. An FOF of 1 means you should keep calm and carry on. A 10, on the other hand, calls for a full-blown freak-out.

The Twins are 7-14!

If you’re a Twins fan, you need to look inward and ask yourself if the Royals are going to keep winning two-thirds of their games from here to eternity. If you believe so, panic. If not, breathe. The Twins’ COVID- and weather-affected schedule has been a mess, and that hasn’t helped a disappointing offense finds its rhythm.

That said, it is a bit startling to see Kenta Maeda wielding a 6.11 ERA, and a new-look bullpen has not delivered (closer Alex Colomé has a 6.75 ERA and three losses). The pitching could become a legitimate concern, and the history of teams starting this poorly and reaching the postseason is thin. But with the White Sox only recently finding their footing and the schedule so strange, we’ll stop short of a full-on freak-out here.

FOF: 6, or how many one-run games the Twins have lost already (most in Majors).

The Yankees are 9-13!

If you have Yankee Fatigue, boy, has this been the season for you (so far). The Yankees’ difficulty in developing their own stars is matched only by their difficulty in keeping players healthy. It’s a dangerous combo that leads to desperate recycling of the post-prime likes of Jay Bruce (who got off to a bad start and decided to retire) and Rougned Odor, and it has left the Yankees with a team that has been far too reliant on the long ball and Gerrit Cole.

My general belief on these matters is that the minute non-Yankee fans start doing cartwheels is typically when the Bronx Bombers awaken, and that still feels inevitable here. However, it is worth noting that opponents have recognized a weakness. Yankees hitters entered Monday having only seen four-seamers 31.4% of the time this season – their lowest percentage since at least 2008. The Yanks haven’t succeeded at the little things -- moving runners over, baserunning, defense. And actually, come to think of it, those are big things, especially for a team in World Series or bust mode.

FOF: 5.96, or the combined ERA of Jameson Taillon, Corey Kluber and Domingo Germán.

The Braves are 10-12!

One hit in a doubleheader sweep? Where’s Harry Doyle when we need him? What had been one of the most ample offenses in the game in 2020 has been reduced, basically, to Ronald Acuña Jr. and a pinch-hitting Pablo Sandoval in 2021. Outside of those two, the Braves’ bats have mostly struggled (Marcell Ozuna entered the week with only one extra-base hit), and injuries to pitchers Max Fried, Mike Soroka, Sean Newcomb and Chris Martin have only exacerbated Atlanta’s issues.

But the preseason prognostications about the NL East being loaded from top to bottom haven’t exactly proven true to date. Every one of these teams has shown its warts, and there’s enough pedigree in the Atlanta offense to anticipate a turnaround.

FOF: 3, or how many pinch-hit homers the Panda has hit already.

The Nationals are 8-11!

The Nats just never got the victory lap they deserved after that epic 2019 run. They had to wait nine months to get their rings and 17 months to hang their championship banner in front of fans. They signed their World Series MVP, Stephen Strasburg, to a temporarily record-breaking contract, but he’s barely been able to take the mound in the time since the ink dried. And we can’t even appreciate the greatness of Juan Soto right now, because he’s on the injured list with a shoulder issue.

The above point about none of the NL East teams having asserted themselves yet still stands. But the Nats’ issues and their current reliance on reclamation projects is more pronounced. Until Soto comes back and proves his health, the Freak Out Factor -- and the probability of us being subjected to endless Max Scherzer trade rumors -- is quite high.

FOF: 10 -- one for every inning thrown by Strasburg before he was shut down.

Christian Yelich has had back trouble!

Yelich hasn’t played since April 11 and hit what manager Craig Counsell called a “plateau” in his recovery, necessitating an MRI that, thankfully, uncovered no structural issues. Yelich could be back in the lineup later this week, and the Brewers’ strong pitching and defense has allowed them to carry on quite well without their 2018 NL MVP. So that’s a positive. But Yelich has had back issues throughout his Milwaukee tenure, and we all know what a chronic concern anything related to the back can become. If I were a Brewers fan, I’d be a bit worried about where the runs are going to come from if Yelich is hampered by this issue in any meaningful way moving forward.

FOF: 7, or how many months it has been since Yelich’s last home run.

Francisco Lindor has started slowly!

Lindor has already been booed at Citi Field and … no, just stop that. You, reading this. Don’t boo Francisco Lindor in April. No booing before Memorial Day! You got that?

The Mets paid a premium for Lindor with that mega-extension, and so there is more than the usual amount of scrutiny surrounding his cold start (.210/.324/.274). But between weather and COVID-related postponements, this team’s schedule has been antithetical to the usual flow of the game. If we’re going to give Lindor a pass for his odd 2020, we can shrug off his April, too. Though Lindor can sometimes be accused of chasing power at the expense of his average, his chase rate this season (24.2%) is the best it’s ever been, and his strikeout rate (10.7%) is among the best in MLB. Not worried here.

FOF: 2, or Lindor’s extra-base hit total entering Tuesday.

Jake Odorizzi has forearm tightness!

Kent Emanuel’s 8 2/3 innings of strong relief after Odorizzi’s abrupt departure was an unexpected and impressive effort. Now, if he could just do that every five days and never, ever get hurt, the Astros have nothing to worry about. Otherwise, Odorizzi’s injury, even if it doesn’t prove serious (he’s hoping to only miss two turns in the rotation), underscores the fragility of a team with iffy pitching depth. Framber Valdez, Forrest Whitley and, of course, Justin Verlander, are all on the shelf.

If history holds, the Astros might just bash their way to the ALCS again, but Houston is in danger of relying too much on its bullpen.

FOF: 7, or the number or times an Astros starter has gone at least six innings so far this season.

The Reds fizzled fast!

Cincinnati went from first to fifth in the NL Central in the span of a week from April 18 to April 25. The primary culprit is a bullpen that allowed 23 runs in a 26 2/3-inning span. But staff ace Luis Castillo’s puzzling decline in effectiveness (his strikeout rate has dropped from 30.5 to 17.8%) is alarming, too. The offense either thumps or slumps and really needs Eugenio Suárez (.560 OPS entering Monday) to get going. Frankly, though, the Reds had already limited my expectations for them with their uninspiring winter, so the hot start had been a pleasant surprise. From that perspective, I cannot in good faith advocate that the Cincinnati faithful freak-out about the free fall.

FOF: 5.32, which doubles as Castillo’s Fielding Independent Pitching.