Reyes' start: hard hitting and hard luck

SAN DIEGO -- Franmil Reyes started his 2019 season the same way he finished his breakout rookie campaign: He’s hitting rockets all over the field.

The difference? Through five games, Reyes has nothing to show for it. Nobody in baseball has been as unlucky as the Padres' hulking cleanup man.

Reyes was given the night off on Tuesday against Arizona. He has recorded just one hit in 15 plate appearances -- a double to the gap on Sunday against the Giants. But those numbers don’t do justice to Reyes’ start. Take a look at the 12 balls he has put in play:

3/28: 100.8 mph line out to right
3/28: 105.6 mph line out to left
3/29: 96 mph sacrifice fly to center
3/29: 87.4 mph line out to center
3/31: 101 mph fly out to center
3/31: 106.7 mph fly out to center
3/31: 107.1 mph double to left-center
3/31: 91.8 mph line out to left
4/1: 111.1 mph groundout to second
4/1: 95 mph sacrifice fly to center
4/1: 91 mph groundout to first
4/1: 71.9 mph groundout to the pitcher

That's some unbelievably bad luck. Among players with at least 10 batted balls, Reyes ranks fifth in the Majors with a 97.1 mph average exit velocity. His opponents have combined for some excellent defensive plays and some fortunate positioning with Reyes at the plate.

"If we could control where the ball was going to land, every hitter would be over .500," Reyes said. "I just control what I control. Like I say every time, I look for a pitch where I can do damage. If the ball's not landing for a hit, that's OK, I'm controlling what I can control."

In short, Reyes has been very good over the season's first week, even if the results don't show it. One of Statcast's most useful tools is its ability to calculate a player’s expected numbers based on quality of contact. (That accounts for both exit velocity and launch angle.) Take a look at Reyes' expected numbers:

Average: .077
Expected average: .335

Slugging percentage: .154
Expected slugging percentage: .736

Weighted on-base average: .083
Expected weighted on-base average: .403

In all three categories, Reyes has the largest gap in the Majors between his expected numbers and his actual numbers (among hitters with more than 10 at-bats).

"For anybody, man, you want to have results," said Padres skipper Andy Green. "He's hit balls hard all over the park, and he doesn't have anything to show for it. That's not fun for anybody, no matter how long you've played. But he's in a really good spot right now."

No doubt, it's a results-oriented business. Reyes, in a small sample, has not gotten results. But the point is this: Reyes' process is right.

Last season, he burst onto the scene with a .280/.340/.498 slash line and some otherworldly numbers during the final two months. If he keeps doing what he's been doing, Reyes is probably going to have another really good year. The Padres haven't seen anything to make them believe otherwise.

Reyes isn't the type of player to put much weight into those early numbers -- especially given the Padres' hot start.

"The energy here, the energy of our team, it's exciting, man," Reyes said. "If I'm hitting the ball hard and they're outs and we're winning, I'm always OK with that. One day, they're going to fall."

Noteworthy
• Right-hander Dinelson Lamet recently threw an up-down bullpen session in which he reached about 50 pitches, Green said. Lamet underwent Tommy John surgery last April, and the team is eyeing a midsummer return, though there’s been no specific timeline given. Lamet’s progression to extensive bullpen sessions is noteworthy. He's throwing all of his pitches, and his velocity is back where the Padres would like it to be.

Lamet's impending return could work perfectly with a staff full of young pitchers who will have their workloads monitored this season.

"We'd like to see it as a jolt for us contending," Green said. "That's the way we'd like to see it -- those types of arms showing up later, giving us a real opportunity to do some special things. We, obviously, understand the limitations our rotation has, going into the season, with innings. When you see him there, that fits nicely into your head that he could come at the right time for us."

• There's rain in the forecast for Thursday's game in St. Louis, but Green noted that rookie left-hander Nick Margevicius will start that series opener, even if it gets pushed back a day.

• Second baseman Ian Kinsler received his 2018 American League Gold Glove Award before Tuesday's game. Kinsler split last season between the Angels and Red Sox. No Padres second baseman has ever won a Gold Glove Award.